Rodney Brooks; The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI; Series, Future of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence; In His Blog; 2017-09-07.
tl;dr → Calm down. Get You’ve had your fun, now get back to work. Keep your day job.
and → <quote>The claims are ludicrous.</quote>
and → <quote>Predicting the future is really hard, especially ahead of time.</quote>
A. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
B. The Singularity.
C. Misaligned Values.
D. Really evil horrible nasty human-destroying Artificially Intelligent entities.
- [A,B,C,D] Over and under estimating
- [B,C,D] Imagining Magic
- [A,B,C] Performance versus competence
- [A,B] Suitcase words
- [A,B,B,B,…] Exponentials
- [C,D] Hollywood scenarios
- [B,C,D] SPEED OF Deployment
- The corpus is surveyed.
- People with some serious-sounding titles are being very silly.
Which are largely negative exemplars of the Clarity of Thinking to which he strives…
- Greg Milner; Pinpoint: How GPS is Changing Technology, Culture, and Our Minds, W. W. Norton, 2016.
- “V2s for Ionosphere Research?”, Arthur C. Clarke, In Wireless World, 1945-02, page 45.
- “Extra-Terrestrial Relays: Can Rocket Stations Give World-wide Radio Coverage”, Arthur C. Clarke, In Wireless World, pages 305–308, 1945-10.
- Marvin Minsky, The Emotion Machine: Commonsense Thinking, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of the Human Mind, Simon and Schuster, 2006.
- How to Regulate Artificial Intelligence; Oren Etzioni; In The New York Times (NYT); 2017-09-01.
Oren Etzioni is chief executive of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence.
- robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years; press release; MarketWatch; WHEN?
- In IEEE Spectrum…
- The C. Elgans Connectome; In Scientific American; WHEN?
- OpenWorm; In Jimi Wales. Wiki
- Desk Set, a movie, listed in IMDB.
- Some Tech Report Thingy; Technical Report PR-ADV-B-00039-00001; CUDL (a laboratory title), University of Cambridge; WHEN?
- The Invisible Opponent; Some Boosterista; In The Atlantic; 2016-03.
- Computer Science [&] Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
- Tim Harford; What We Get Wrong about Technology; In His Blog; 2017-08.
- 60 Minutes [is] Shocked To Find 8 Inch Floppies Drive Nuclear Deterrent; Some Cub Reporter (SCR); In Ars Technica; 2104-04.
- Automous Vehicle History; Some Boosterista; In Wired; 2012-02.
- They Drove Cross Country In An Autonomous Minivan Without [Seat Belts?]; Some Boosterista; In Jalopnik; WHEN?
In His Blog, as the series, Future of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence…
- Domo Arigato Mr. Roboto!; 2017-08-28.
- How Machine Learning Works; 2017-08-28.
- The End of Moore’s Law; 2017-08-28.
- The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI; 2017-09-07.