The Advent of Netwar | Arquilla, Ronfeldt (1996)

John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt; The Advent Of Netwar; RAND; Document MR-789-OSD
landing; 1996; 127 pages; ISBN/EAN: 0-8330-2414-0; available as pdf fragments at the landing site; Amazon:0833024140: Kindle: $34, paper: $13+SHT.

John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt; The Advent of Netwar (complete copy); National Defense Research Institute;

Abstract

The information revolution is leading to the rise of network forms of organization, with unusual implications for how societies are organized and conflicts are conducted. “Netwar” is an emerging consequence. The term refers to societal conflict and crime, short of war, in which the antagonists are organized more as sprawling “leaderless” networks than as tight-knit hierarchies. Many terrorists, criminals, fundamentalists, and ethno-nationalists are developing netwar capabilities. A new generation of revolutionaries and militant radicals is also emerging, with new doctrines, strategies, and technologies that support their reliance on network forms of organization. Netwar may be the dominant mode of societal conflict in the 21st century. These conclusions are implied by the evolution of societies, according to a framework presented in this RAND study. The emergence of netwar raises the need to rethink strategy and doctrine to conduct counternetwar. Traditional notions of war and low-intensity conflict as a sequential process based on massing, maneuvering, and fighting will likely prove inadequate to cope with nonlinear, swarm-like, information-age conflicts in which societal and military elements are closely intermingled.

Followup

John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt; The Advent of Netwar (Revisited); Document MR1382.ch1; Chapter in Some Larger Volume; WHEN?; 25 pages.

John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt; Osama bin Laden and the Advent of Netwar; In New Perspectives Quarterly (NPQ); 2001; N pages; DOI:10.1111/0893-7850.00436; paywall.

John Arquilla & David Ronfeldt; The Advent of Netwar: Analytic Background; In Studies in Conflict & Terrorism; Volume 22, Issue 3, 1999; pages 193-206; online 2001-09-01, 2010-08-28; DOI:10.1080/105761099265720; paywall.

19 Is the New 60 | Lenore Skenazy (WSJ)

Lenore Skenazy; 19 Is the New 60; In The Wall Street Journal (WSJ); 2017-08-10.
Teaser: Adults should stop stealing away the time kids need to play.

Original Sources

Nineteen Year Olds As Sedentary As Sixty Year Olds Study Suggests; press release; Johns Hopkins University; 2017.
Teaser: Teen years represent highest risk for inactivity; increases in activity levels only seen in 20-somethings

Vijay R. Varma, Debangan Dey, Andrew Leroux, Junrui Di, Jacek Urbanek, Luo Xiao, Vadim Zipunnikov, “Re-evaluating the effect of age on physical activity over the lifespan,” In Preventive Medicine, 2017-06-01.

Mentions

  • <pull-quote>When it comes to physical activity, 19 is the new 60. </pull-quote>
  • The Study. That. Shows.
    • 2017-06.
    • N=12,500
    • panel
    • tracking device logging & diaries
    • Authors
      • Vadim Zipunnikov, professor, Johns Hopkins University
      • and others
  • <quote>Correlation isn’t causation</quote>, attributed to Lenore Skenazy. Yes, she actually uttered that in the essay.
  • Peter Gray, professor, psychology, Boston College

Concept

  • loss of “locus of control,”
  • strong connection (a link? as it were) between happiness and feeling in control of life.

Who

  • Vadim Zipunnikov, professor, Johns Hopkins University
  • Peter Gray, professor, psychology, Boston College

Referenced

How “Demo-or-Die” Helped My Career | Danah Boyd

Danah Boyd “danah boyd”; How “Demo-or-Die” Helped My Career; In Her Blog hosted on Medium; 2017-08-01

tl;dr → Dr. Boyd doesdid like busking; it is unbecoming. She has better patrons now. She is first smong equal of the peers she cites. But she learned something by that experience.

Book

Molly Steenson; Architectural Intelligence: How Designers and Architects Created the Digital Landscap, MIT Press; 2017-10-27; 320 pages; Amazon:0262037068: Kindle: no, paper: $35+SHT.

Concept

<quote> Everything about what I do as a researcher is rooted in the goal of using empirical work to help challenge people’s assumptions and generate new frames that people can work with. <snip/>And that requires being able to explain your thinking to anyone at any moment. And that’s the skill that I learned from the “demo-or-die” culture.</quote>

Mentions

Epithets

  • “handwaving,” attributed to Stewart Brand.
  • “deploy-or-die,” attributed to Joi Ito.
  • “publish-or-perish,” in academia, attributed to Nicholas Negroponte as “dismissal.”

Who

  • Stewart Brand
  • Judith Donath
  • Joi Ito
  • Nicholas Negroponte

Referenced

  • Stewart Brand; The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at M.I.T.; Penguin Books; 1989-09-03; some pages; Amazon:B017YC9V3I: kindle: no, paper: $11+SHT.
  • Molly Steenson; Architectural Intelligence: How Designers and Architects Created the Digital Landscap, MIT Press; 2017-10-27; 320 pages; Amazon:0262037068: Kindle: no, paper: $35+SHT.
  • Joi Ito opines “Deploy-Or-Die”; Some Cub Reporter; In O’Reilly Media; 2014-04.

How the Economists Got It Wrong | The Prospect

How the Economists Got It Wrong; James Galbraith; In The Prospect; 2001-12-19.

James K. Galbraith
  • Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in government-business relations at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin
  • senior scholar of the Levy Economics Institute
  • chair of the Board of Economists for Peace and Security.
  • Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe; Yale University Press; 2016-06-21; 232 pages; Yale.; Amazon:0300220448: Kindle: $15, paper: $19+SHT.

tl;dr → So much fail. <quote>So what is modern economics about? It seems to be, mainly, about itself</quote>

Occasion

The Annual Meeting, (maybe) 2000 (2000-01-07 → 2000-01-09) of the American Economic Association (AEA), in Boston, MA.

Mentions

  • American Economic Association (AEA)
  • “The Golden Virtue of Eclecticism”, a talk by Paul Samuelson.
  • Other talks, not cited; by others, named below.

Quotes

<quote ref=”there“>Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back </quote>

The Rant

<pull-quote> Leading active members of today’s economics profession, the generation presently in their 40s and 50s, have joined together into a kind of politburo for correct economic thinking. As a general rule–as one might expect from a gentleman’s club–this has placed them on the wrong side of every important policy issue, and not just recently but for decades. They predict disaster where none occurs. They deny the possibility of events that then happen. They offer a “rape is like the weather” fatalism about an “inevitable” problem (pay inequality) that then starts to recede. They oppose the most basic, decent, and sensible reforms, while offering placebos instead. They are always surprised when something untoward (like a recession) actually occurs. And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject. No one loses face, in this club, for having been wrong. No one is disinvited from presenting papers at later annual meetings. And still less is anyone from the outside invited in. Only the occasional top-insider-turned-dissident–this year the admirable Stiglitz–can reliably count on getting a hearing. </pull-quote>

No young economist better exemplifies the club spirit than MIT’s Paul Krugman.

Who

Some academic scribbler of a few years back

  • Milton Friedman
  • Robert J. Gordon
  • John Maynard Keynes
  • Malthus
  • Karl Marx
  • Alfred Marshall
  • Mill
  • Adam Smith
  • Paul Samuelson
  • Ricardo

The Celebrity Economists, Today

  • Anders Aslund, adviser to Boris Yeltsin
  • David Card, University of California, Berkeley
  • Ping Chen
    • a “good guy” in the narrative
    • ex physicist
    • University of Texas at Austin
    • China Center for Economic Research at Peking University
  • Stanley Fischer, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
  • Alan Krueger, Princeton
  • Paul Krugman
  • Andrei Shleifer, adviser to Boris Yeltsin
  • Myron Scholes formulist.
  • Joseph Stiglitz, chief economist, World Bank
  • Lawrence Summers, Treasury Secretary, U.S.

Listicle

The “missing” ideas. [the falseness of...]

  • <quote>Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon</quote>
    contra

    • cost push
    • wage-price spirals
  • Full employment without inflation is impossible
    • Full Employment Act
    • NAIRU
    • 4% is the rate
  • Rising pay inequality stems from technological change
    • Skill-biased technological change
    • markets (in everything)
    • meritocracy
    • third way politicians
  • Rising minimum wages cause unemployment
  • Sustained growth cannot exceed 2.5 percent per year
  • Price and quantity are set in free competitive markets through the interaction of supply and demand

Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation? | Jean Twenge, The Atlantic

Have Smartphones Destroyed a Generation?; Jean M. Twenge; In The Atlantic; 2017-08-03.
Teaser: More comfortable online than out partying, post-Millennials are safer, physically, than adolescents have ever been. But they’re on the brink of a mental-health crisis.
tl;dr → Yes. <fail>Betteridge’s Law</fail>.  The alarum has been sounded.
Book
  • Jean M. Twenge; iGen: Why Today’s Super-Connected Kids Are Growing Up Less Rebellious, More Tolerant, Less Happy—and Completely Unprepared for Adulthood—and What That Means for the Rest of Us.; <snide>Oh. My. Stars!.Would ya look at the very size of that title! Do they not have editors any more?</snide>; Atria Books; 2017-08-22; 320 pages; Amazon:1501151983: Kindle: $13, paper: $20+SHT.

Mentions

  • They are acting young longer. Grown-up bodies, baby minds.
  • iGen, Twenge’s moniker.
    • born:1995 and 2012
    • ages: 22 ← 5.

Commentariat

  • @Amanda_Lenhart doesn’t like it, asserts “cherry picking”
    I’d go further & suggest that the author is cherry picking findings to support a career focused on a generally negative view of youth. cite
    — Amanda Lenhart (@Amanda_Lenhart) 2017-08-04
  • John Battelle asserts me quoque
    Is Social Media The New Tobacco?; In His Blog, hosted on Medium; 2017-08-04.
    Teaser: Instagram, Snapchat and others have a business model based on addiction. This is not how we want to be raising our children.
    tl;dr → segues into generalized handwringing on women, gentrification, automation [cited therein]

Has she not been writing this same book since forever?

  • Jean M. Twenge; Generation Me – Why Today’s Young Americans Are More Confident, Assertive, Entitled–and More Miserable Than Ever Before;
    Atria Books; revised & updated edition; 2014-09-30; 400 pages; Amazon:1476755566: Kindle: $13, paper: $2+SHT.
  • Jean M. Twenge, W. Keith Campbell; The Narcissism Epidemic: Living in the Age of Entitlement; Atria Books; unknown edition; 2010-04-13; 368 pages;
    Amazon:1416575995: Kindle: $10, paper: $1+SHT.

Actualities

How to Improve Resilience in Midlife | NYT

How to Improve Resilience in Midlife; Tara Parker-Pope; In The New York Times (NYT); 2017-07-25.

Listicle
  • Practice Optimism
  • Rewrite Your Story (the narrative therapy)
  • Don’t Personalize It
  • Remember Your Comebacks
  • Support Others
  • Take Stress Breaks
  • Go Out of Your Comfort Zone

Mentions

  • Most opinement is for children.
  • But adults have problems too.

Exemplars

  • Dennis Charney, shot, 2016.
  • Sheryl Sandberg, must lean in, widowed.
  • Sallie Krawcheck, fired, divorced.

Quote

  • <quote>There is a naturally learnable set of behaviors that contribute to resilience</quote>, attributed to Dennis Charney.
  • <quote>There is a biology to this <snip/></quote>, attributed to Dennis Charney; something about hormones.

Quoted

  • Adam Grant, professor, management and psychology, Wharton School [of Business], University of Pennsylvania.
  • Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer, Facebook.
  • Dennis Charney
    • research, specializing in resilience, fortuitously,
    • Dean of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City, NY.
  • Steven Southwick, professor, psychiatry, Medical School, Yale University
  • Sallie Ellevest, founder, Ellevest, distaff investment promotions; ex BofA.
  • Jack Groppel, co-founder, Johnson & Johnson Human Performance Institute; training services

Referenced

  • Option B: Facing Adversity, Building Resilience and Finding Joy; Staff; In The New York Times (NYT); 2017-04-23.
    tl;dr → The book review. They like it.
  • Sheryl Sandberg, Adam Grant; Option B: Facing Adversity, Building Resilience, and Finding Joy; Knopf; 2017-04-24; 240 pages; Amazon:1524732680; Kindle: $14, paper: $6+SHT.
  • Steven M. Southwick, Dennis S. Charney; Resilience: The Science of Mastering Life’s Greatest Challenge; Cambridge University Press; 1 edition; 2012-07-23; 240 pages; Amazon:B009GEY7WI: Kindle: $14 (and device limits in the DRM); paper: $12+SHT.
  • PMC3410434; In PubMed.
    a.k.a. A Harvard Study. (That. Shows.); something about <quote>people who viewed stress as a way to fuel better performance did better on tests and managed their stress better physiologically than those taught to ignore stress.</quote>
  • A. Study. That. Shows; 2017.
    tl;dr → American military veterans, higher levels of gratitude, altruism and a sense of purpose predicted resiliency.

Every attempt to manage academia makes it worse | SV-POW

Mike Taylor; Every attempt to manage academia makes it worse; In Their Blog, entitled Sauropod Vertebra Picture of the Week (SV-POW); 2017-03-17.

Mentioned

  • Goodhart’s Law → When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
  • Campbell’s Law → The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.
  • The Cobra Effect → measurement makes it worse.

References

Actualties


CC-BY-NC

Want Teenage Boys to Read? Easy. Give Them Books About Sex | David Handler (Lemony Snicket) in NYT

Want Teenage Boys to Read? Easy. Give Them Books About Sex; David Handler; In The New York Times (NYT); 2017-07-28.

tl;dr → Boys don’t read after age 12, That is why.

David Handler
  • Daniel Handler
  • Writes as Lemony Snicket
  • Lemony Snicket, All the Dirty Parts (unavailable, unlisted, still in production)
    tl;dr →<quote>portrays a young boy’s emotional, heteroflexible sex life</quote>

Mentions

  • Young Adult, a genre
    • Young Adult Literature
    • dystopia, slaughter
    • but no sex allowed
  • P. G. Wodehouse, The Flowers of Evil
  • Anais Nin, Delta of Venus
  • Milan Kundera, The Unbearable Lightness of Being
  • Oscar Hijuelos; The Mambo Kings Play Songs of Love

Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives | John Naisbitt

John Naisbitt; Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives; Warner Books; 1984; 333 pages; Amazon:0446909912: Kindle: no, paper: $0.01+SHT.

Listicle

  1. From an industrial society
    To an information society.
  2. From technology being forced into use
    To technology being pulled into use where it is appealing to people.
  3. From a predominantly national economy,
    To one in the global marketplace.
  4. From short term,
    To long term perspectives.
  5. From centralization,
    To decentralization.
  6. From getting help through institutions like government,
    To self-help.
  7. From representative,
    To participative democracy.
  8. From hierarchies,
    To networking.
  9. From a northeastern bias,
    To a southwestern one.
  10. From seeing things as “either/or”,
    To having more choices.

Mentions

<snide>What’s a trend? What is a mega-trend?  Is that like a Sea Change?  Or a Tectonic Shift?</snide>.

Definition

<quote>A megatrend is a major restructuring, a larger pattern of broad trends that is reshaping and transforming our lives. In manufacturing, megatrends are reshaping the nature of competition, both domestically and internationally. The term megatrend was popularized by John Naisbitt in his 1982 book by the same name.</quote>
Via MegaTrends.ppt

Notable

<quote>John Naisbitt University (Serbian Cyrillic: Универзитет Џон Незбит) is a private university located in Belgrade, Serbia. Megatrend Business School, which later became Megatrend University, was founded in 1989.[2] In 2015, Council of Megatrend University changed the name of the institution to “University John Naisbitt[3] after controversies arose surrounding Megatrend University.[4]</quote>
<controversy ref=”there“>It is a diploma mill</controversy>

A Golden Age for Dystopian Fiction | Jill Lepore

A Golden Age for Dystopian Fiction; Jill Lepore; In The New Yorker; 2017-06-02.
Teaser: What to make of our new literature of radical pessimism.

Jill Lepore
  • staff, New Yorker
  • David Woods Kemper ’41 Professor of American History and Harvard College Professor, Harvard, Opera.
  • The Secret History of Wonder Woman, a book, in promotion now.
Occasion

Gregory Claeys, Dystopia: A Natural History; Oxford University Press; 2017-02-01; 576 pages; Amazon:0198785682: Kindle: no, paper: $110+SHT.

tl;dr → she’s not up for the dystopia genre, not for long.

<quote>Dystopia used to be a fiction of resistance; it’s become a fiction of submission, the fiction of an untrusting, lonely, and sullen twenty-first century, the fiction of fake news and infowars, the fiction of helplessness and hopelessness. It cannot imagine a better future, and it doesn’t ask anyone to bother to make one. It nurses grievances and indulges resentments; it doesn’t call for courage; it finds that cowardice suffices. Its only admonition is: Despair more. It appeals to both the left and the right, because, in the end, it requires so little by way of literary, political, or moral imagination, asking only that you enjoy the company of people whose fear of the future aligns comfortably with your own. Left or right, the radical pessimism of an unremitting dystopianism has itself contributed to the unravelling of the liberal state and the weakening of a commitment to political pluralism. <snip/> Wreckage is romantic. But a politics of ruin is doomed.<quote>, opined by Jill Lepore, she as herself, in summation.

Separately noted.