John Arquilla, David Ronfeldt; The Advent of Netwar (complete copy); National Defense Research Institute;
The information revolution is leading to the rise of network forms of organization, with unusual implications for how societies are organized and conflicts are conducted. “Netwar” is an emerging consequence. The term refers to societal conflict and crime, short of war, in which the antagonists are organized more as sprawling “leaderless” networks than as tight-knit hierarchies. Many terrorists, criminals, fundamentalists, and ethno-nationalists are developing netwar capabilities. A new generation of revolutionaries and militant radicals is also emerging, with new doctrines, strategies, and technologies that support their reliance on network forms of organization. Netwar may be the dominant mode of societal conflict in the 21st century. These conclusions are implied by the evolution of societies, according to a framework presented in this RAND study. The emergence of netwar raises the need to rethink strategy and doctrine to conduct counternetwar. Traditional notions of war and low-intensity conflict as a sequential process based on massing, maneuvering, and fighting will likely prove inadequate to cope with nonlinear, swarm-like, information-age conflicts in which societal and military elements are closely intermingled.
Vijay R. Varma, Debangan Dey, Andrew Leroux, Junrui Di, Jacek Urbanek, Luo Xiao, Vadim Zipunnikov, “Re-evaluating the effect of age on physical activity over the lifespan,” In Preventive Medicine, 2017-06-01.
<pull-quote>When it comes to physical activity, 19 is the new 60. </pull-quote>
The Study. That. Shows.
tracking device logging & diaries
Vadim Zipunnikov, professor, Johns Hopkins University
<quote>Correlation isn’t causation</quote>, attributed to Lenore Skenazy. Yes, she actually uttered that in the essay.
Peter Gray, professor, psychology, Boston College
loss of “locus of control,”
strong connection (a link? as it were) between happiness and feeling in control of life.
Vadim Zipunnikov, professor, Johns Hopkins University
tl;dr → Dr. Boyd doesdid like busking; it is unbecoming. She has better patrons now. She is first smong equal of the peers she cites. But she learned something by that experience.
Molly Steenson; Architectural Intelligence: How Designers and Architects Created the Digital Landscap, MIT Press; 2017-10-27; 320 pages; Amazon:0262037068: Kindle: no, paper: $35+SHT.
<quote> Everything about what I do as a researcher is rooted in the goal of using empirical work to help challenge people’s assumptions and generate new frames that people can work with. <snip/>And that requires being able to explain your thinking to anyone at any moment. And that’s the skill that I learned from the “demo-or-die” culture.</quote>
Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in government-business relations at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin
senior scholar of the Levy Economics Institute
chair of the Board of Economists for Peace and Security.
Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe; Yale University Press; 2016-06-21; 232 pages; Yale.; Amazon:0300220448: Kindle: $15, paper: $19+SHT.
tl;dr → So much fail. <quote>So what is modern economics about? It seems to be, mainly, about itself</quote>
The Annual Meeting, (maybe) 2000 (2000-01-07 → 2000-01-09) of the American Economic Association (AEA), in Boston, MA.
American Economic Association (AEA)
“The Golden Virtue of Eclecticism”, a talk by Paul Samuelson.
Other talks, not cited; by others, named below.
<quote ref=”there“>Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back </quote>
<pull-quote> Leading active members of today’s economics profession, the generation presently in their 40s and 50s, have joined together into a kind of politburo for correct economic thinking. As a general rule–as one might expect from a gentleman’s club–this has placed them on the wrong side of every important policy issue, and not just recently but for decades. They predict disaster where none occurs. They deny the possibility of events that then happen. They offer a “rape is like the weather” fatalism about an “inevitable” problem (pay inequality) that then starts to recede. They oppose the most basic, decent, and sensible reforms, while offering placebos instead. They are always surprised when something untoward (like a recession) actually occurs. And when finally they sense that some position cannot be sustained, they do not re-examine their ideas. Instead, they simply change the subject. No one loses face, in this club, for having been wrong. No one is disinvited from presenting papers at later annual meetings. And still less is anyone from the outside invited in. Only the occasional top-insider-turned-dissident–this year the admirable Stiglitz–can reliably count on getting a hearing. </pull-quote>
No young economist better exemplifies the club spirit than MIT’s Paul Krugman.
Some academic scribbler of a few years back
Robert J. Gordon
John Maynard Keynes
The Celebrity Economists, Today
Anders Aslund, adviser to Boris Yeltsin
David Card, University of California, Berkeley
a “good guy” in the narrative
University of Texas at Austin
China Center for Economic Research at Peking University
Stanley Fischer, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Alan Krueger, Princeton
Andrei Shleifer, adviser to Boris Yeltsin
Myron Scholes formulist.
Joseph Stiglitz, chief economist, World Bank
Lawrence Summers, Treasury Secretary, U.S.
The “missing” ideas. [the falseness of...]
<quote>Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon</quote>
Full employment without inflation is impossible
Full Employment Act
4% is the rate
Rising pay inequality stems from technological change
Skill-biased technological change
markets (in everything)
third way politicians
Rising minimum wages cause unemployment
Sustained growth cannot exceed 2.5 percent per year
Price and quantity are set in free competitive markets through the interaction of supply and demand
tl;dr → Yes. <fail>Betteridge’s Law</fail>. The alarum has been sounded.
Jean M. Twenge; iGen: Why Today’s Super-Connected Kids Are Growing Up Less Rebellious, More Tolerant, Less Happy—and Completely Unprepared for Adulthood—and What That Means for the Rest of Us.; <snide>Oh. My. Stars!.Would ya look at the very size of that title! Do they not have editors any more?</snide>; Atria Books; 2017-08-22; 320 pages; Amazon:1501151983: Kindle: $13, paper: $20+SHT.
They are acting young longer. Grown-up bodies, baby minds.
iGen, Twenge’s moniker.
born:1995 and 2012
ages: 22 ← 5.
@Amanda_Lenhart doesn’t like it, asserts “cherry picking”
I’d go further & suggest that the author is cherry picking findings to support a career focused on a generally negative view of youth. cite
— Amanda Lenhart (@Amanda_Lenhart) 2017-08-04
John Battelle asserts me quoque Is Social Media The New Tobacco?; In His Blog, hosted on Medium; 2017-08-04.
Teaser: Instagram, Snapchat and others have a business model based on addiction. This is not how we want to be raising our children.
tl;dr → segues into generalized handwringing on women, gentrification, automation [cited therein]
Has she not been writing this same book since forever?
Jean M. Twenge; Generation Me – Why Today’s Young Americans Are More Confident, Assertive, Entitled–and More Miserable Than Ever Before;
Atria Books; revised & updated edition; 2014-09-30; 400 pages; Amazon:1476755566: Kindle: $13, paper: $2+SHT.
PMC3410434; In PubMed.
a.k.a. A Harvard Study. (That. Shows.); something about <quote>people who viewed stress as a way to fuel better performance did better on tests and managed their stress better physiologically than those taught to ignore stress.</quote>
A. Study. That. Shows; 2017.
tl;dr → American military veterans, higher levels of gratitude, altruism and a sense of purpose predicted resiliency.
Mike Taylor; Every attempt to manage academia makes it worse; In Their Blog, entitled Sauropod Vertebra Picture of the Week (SV-POW); 2017-03-17.
Goodhart’s Law → When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
Campbell’s Law → The more any quantitative social indicator is used for social decision-making, the more subject it will be to corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor.
From an industrial society
To an information society.
From technology being forced into use
To technology being pulled into use where it is appealing to people.
From a predominantly national economy,
To one in the global marketplace.
From short term,
To long term perspectives.
From getting help through institutions like government,
To participative democracy.
From a northeastern bias,
To a southwestern one.
From seeing things as “either/or”,
To having more choices.
<snide>What’s a trend? What is a mega-trend? Is that like a Sea Change? Or a Tectonic Shift?</snide>.
<quote>A megatrend is a major restructuring, a larger pattern of broad trends that is reshaping and transforming our lives. In manufacturing, megatrends are reshaping the nature of competition, both domestically and internationally. The term megatrend was popularized by John Naisbitt in his 1982 book by the same name.</quote>
<quote>John Naisbitt University (Serbian Cyrillic: Универзитет Џон Незбит) is a private university located in Belgrade, Serbia. Megatrend Business School, which later became Megatrend University, was founded in 1989. In 2015, Council of Megatrend University changed the name of the institution to “University John Naisbitt“ after controversies arose surrounding Megatrend University.</quote>
<controversy ref=”there“>It is a diploma mill</controversy>
David Woods Kemper ’41 Professor of American History and Harvard College Professor, Harvard, Opera.
The Secret History of Wonder Woman, a book, in promotion now.
Gregory Claeys, Dystopia: A Natural History; Oxford University Press; 2017-02-01; 576 pages; Amazon:0198785682: Kindle: no, paper: $110+SHT.
tl;dr → she’s not up for the dystopia genre, not for long.
<quote>Dystopia used to be a fiction of resistance; it’s become a fiction of submission, the fiction of an untrusting, lonely, and sullen twenty-first century, the fiction of fake news and infowars, the fiction of helplessness and hopelessness. It cannot imagine a better future, and it doesn’t ask anyone to bother to make one. It nurses grievances and indulges resentments; it doesn’t call for courage; it finds that cowardice suffices. Its only admonition is: Despair more. It appeals to both the left and the right, because, in the end, it requires so little by way of literary, political, or moral imagination, asking only that you enjoy the company of people whose fear of the future aligns comfortably with your own. Left or right, the radical pessimism of an unremitting dystopianism has itself contributed to the unravelling of the liberal state and the weakening of a commitment to political pluralism. <snip/> Wreckage is romantic. But a politics of ruin is doomed.<quote>, opined by Jill Lepore, she as herself, in summation.