tl;dr → There is nothing to fear. The world is big, the effect is small. Anyway, all KPIs are stagnating, not amplifying. And the olds; there are too many old people. The robots will make [the youngs] rich. Say “No” to UBI.
“Oxford University researchers have estimated that 47 percent…”, as opined in Wired, 2015-04.
<quote>Maybe this could be a good drinking game: Every time an article cites the Oxford study, you have to drink a shot of Jack Daniels.</quote>
techno-utopians/dystopians, a self-conscious class of persons.
Technological change has always been gradual and always will be
mostAll of these techno-utopians/dystopians base their “predictions” on the continuation of Moore’s law
which in its ending stages now.
That is because, historically, there is no relationship between higher productivity and unemployment.
All the Baby Boomers will retire, and there is nobody and no wealth to care for them; [we] will want need the machines for that.
… human needs are far from being satisfied.
Of Labor-Intensive Technology-Insensitive Occupations
dental laboratory technicians
social science research assistants
<snide>uttered with out irony</snide>
Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), as an occupation, as a self-conscious class
<snide>again, uttered with out irony</snide>
<quote>Our needs are very large and it is farfetched to think technology will eliminate the need for work.</quote>i>
<quote>But one innovation that is absolutely not needed is UBI (Universal Basic Income), which some have suggested as a reponse to technological progress, and which has to rank as one of the dumbest ideas of all time. </quote>
Carl Benedikt Frey, staff, Oxford University.
professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
CEO, Rethink Robotics
Bill Gates, boffo.
Benoit Hamon, candidate for president, Socialist Party, France.
Marvin Minsky, a scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Gordon Moore, co-founder, Intel.
Nil NilsonNils John Nilsson
a scientist, domain of Artificial Intelligence (AI),
the pace of technical change is accelerating
the pace of technical change is accelerating
and the only constant is change, see it works!
labor economist Gail Garfield Schwartz
out of work
in a generation
jobs will be eliminated,
jobs will be eliminated worldwide by 2020 by robotics and AI.
Oxford researchers Michael A. Osborne and Carl Benedikt Frey
sex workers could be out of work
[who are these people?]
incumbent on policymakers
slow down to a more manageable pace of change.
to where only the change is only constant! Wheee!
a tax on robots
Social Security taxes.
Social Security taxes, on robots.
This is an idea that has been championed by luminaries such as
French Socialist presidential candidate Benoit Hamon
the wealth creates benefits for the shareholders
the social contribution
<quote><snip/>the social contributions on the whole of the added value and not just on the work<quote>, attributed ot Benoit Hamon.
Universal Basic Income (UBI)
the risk of a U.S. worker losing their job,
the risk of a U.S. worker losing their job from a shutdown or downsizing.
4th Industrial Revolution
predictions by experts?
“predictions” were made in the 1970’s and 80’s.
the machine with human intelligence
the machine with human intelligence within the next three to eight years
MIT scientist Marvin Minsky
The prediction about 20 percent of the workforce out of work was made in 1982.
give up on full employment,
The call to give up on full employment.
someone can’t distinguish between millions and billions.
winning the lottery,
chance of winning the lottery,
almost as much chance of winning the lottery as…
your CEO is incompetent.
<quote>Maybe robots replacing CEO’s is the answer to job security.</quote>
The Study. That. Shows.
the Oxford study by Osborne and Frey,
the Oxford study by Osborne and Frey that warns…
the Oxford study,
coverage of the Oxford study.
a bottle of Jack Daniels,
to wager a bottle of Jack Daniels.
702 occupational categories,
all 702 occupational categories,
neglected to examine all 702 occupational categories
task measures from the Department of Labor,
task measures from the Department of Labor, which assessed occupations based on factors…
task measures from the Department of Labor, which assessed occupations based on factors such as how much manual dexterity…
task measures from the Department of Labor, which assessed occupations based on factors such as how much manual dexterity and social perceptiveness [as occupational requirements].
destined for the trash heap…
destined for the trash heap of techno-history.
their methodology produces nonsense.
going the way of the buggy whip maker
the magic robot chair
instead of fretting…
instead of fretting about … killing jobs,
instead of fretting about tech killing jobs.
instead be worrying…
instead be worrying about … productivity …,
instead be worrying about … productivity growth rates …
instead be worrying about … raise productivity growth rates …
instead be worrying about … raise productivity growth rates, which have been at all-time lows over the last decade.
instead be worrying about … going to raise productivity growth rates, which have been at all-time lows over the last decade.
instead be worrying about how the heck are we ever going to raise productivity growth rates, which have been at all-time lows over the last decade.
<wow!> <paf!> </wow!>
the robot assault
MIT professor and CEO of Rethink Robotics Rodney Brooks
misled by suitcase words.
category errors in fungibility of capabilities.
category errors comparable to seeing the rise of more efficient internal combustion engines …
category errors comparable to seeing the rise of more efficient internal combustion engines and jumping to the conclusion that warp drives are just around the corner.
Beam me up, Scotty.
Moore’s law, (sic) Moore’s Law),
the continuation of Moore’s Law.
Intel’s co-founder [Gordon Moore]
The nature of exponentials
is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens.” Disaster will happen long before
the alluring robot in Ex Machina.
There’s another reason to calm down.
This is pretty obvious if you just think about it.
Productivity leads to lower prices and/or higher wages.
This money gets spent.
That spending creates jobs.
we are to panic,
if we are to panic …
if we are to panic, and panic can be a good thing.
the massive retirement,
the massive retirement of baby boomers.
a generational war,
a generational war where …
a generational war where either the old people or the younger workers will win.
working-age people, old people,
the ratio of working-age people to old people.
increasing productivity to raise incomes,
keep increasing productivity to raise incomes.
American household today,
the average American household today.
increased their incomes,
productivity gains increased their incomes …
productivity gains increased their incomes from $60K to $240K.
a few simple-living hippies.
tl;dr → Cathy O’Neil, who is not bitter, envies the scholar-gentleman futurists as she aspires to their life of the mind, for which she writes.
and → futurists are scary people; they are serious people; they are never sour or defeated people; they are not silly people.
and → A “four box” model, two axes, four quadrants; named Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4.
and → Facebook is bad.
The Latent Model, single-axis [the lede is buried-last]
Men ↔ Women
(bad) ↔ (good)
The Declared Model, orthogonal-axes
Worried ↔ Exuberant
Dystopian ↔ Utopian
data scientists are creating machines
data scientists are creating machines they do not fully understand.
data scientists are creating machines that separates winners from losers,
data scientists are creating machines that separates winners from losers for reasons that are already very familiar to us
These reasons are enumerated, by iconic euphemism-cum-epithet as:
quality of education
and other demographic measures (“other”).
[data scientists' activities in the creation of machines] is a threat to the very concept of social mobility.
[data scientists' activities in the creation of machines] is the end of the American dream.
Wherein a data scientist is a statistician who lives in San Francisco and performs their work-product on a Macintosh computer [ref].
tl;dr → Wherein the most powerful thing a man can do is to foretell the future, for that makes him a prophet and peer unto The Prophet, and unto God himself. John Robb prophesied, back in the day, way back in 2016-Q1; and now he’s telling us, reminding us. He had foretold unto us, in a newsletter, in a blog.
and → The sooth is sayed. A report out: based on information, belief, analysis, aspiration & Insight; wherein General John Kelly, in his role as Chief of Staff, is restricting access to Donald J. Trump; this is insinuated to be a coup by any other name, as such by The Military [Industrial Complex]; Donald J. Trump, in response, is no longer slaking his prurient interest. DJT is not now, nor ever was, the adult in the room.
Donald J. Trump, is a serial tweetist.
He is not the President of the United States, but plays one on TV
He did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
He has been remanded to the National Adult Day Care Facility etc.
It’s a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Claimed: “the father of positioning”
Al Reis, Laura Reis, The Fall of Advertising; self-published (ebook); 209; ASIN:B000FC11PG: Kindle: $20? Website, Al & Laura Ries, father and daughter marketing strategists