Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and the Future of Work: Myths and Facts | ITIF

Robert D. Atkinson (ITIF); Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and the Future of Work: Myths and Facts; In Their Blog, at the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF); 2017-09-19.
Robert D. Atkinson is proprietor President, ITIF.

tl;dr → There is nothing to fear. The world is big, the effect is small. Anyway, all KPIs are stagnating, not amplifying. And the olds; there are too many old people. The robots will make [the youngs] rich. Say “No” to UBI.

Occasion

Artificial Intelligence Challenges And Opportunities; a talk; at Some Conference, by Bruegel; 2017-03-23.
Bruegel is a think tank, in Europe, with thoughts on economics.
The essay is edited & amplified since that performance.

Mentions

  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Universal Basic Income (UBI)
  • “Oxford University researchers have estimated that 47 percent…”, as opined in Wired, 2015-04.
    <quote>Maybe this could be a good drinking game: Every time an article cites the Oxford study, you have to drink a shot of Jack Daniels.</quote>
  • techno-utopians/dystopians, a self-conscious class of persons.
  • Moore’s Law, In Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
    • uttered over 50 years ago,
    • Prognosticates that computing power would double every 25 months or so.
      [queue those who say it says something else entirely, …and… CUT!] …<snip/> [Aaan…and we're back]
  • “suitcase words,” an epithet, attributed to Rodney Brooks.

Anti-Nostrum

The two key steps
  1. First, slow down to a more manageable pace of change by imposing a tax on robots.
  2. The second, point, and he did have one was [WHAT?]

Nostrum

“We” Need
  • better workforce training systems
  • worker adjustment programs (like unemployment insurance)
“We” Don’t Need
  • A dole, as branded: Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Soporific

  1. Technological change has always been gradual and always will be
  2. mostAll of these techno-utopians/dystopians base their “predictions” on the continuation of Moore’s law
    which in its ending stages now.
  3. That is because, historically, there is no relationship between higher productivity and unemployment.
  4. All the Baby Boomers will retire, and there is nobody and no wealth to care for them; [we] will want need the machines for that.
  5. … human needs are far from being satisfied.

Exemplars

Of Labor-Intensive Technology-Insensitive Occupations
  • fashion models
  • manicurists
  • carpet installers
  • barbers
  • brick masons
  • block masons
  • machinists
  • cartographers
  • photogrammetrists
  • dental laboratory technicians
  • social science research assistants
    <snide>uttered with out irony</snide>
  • firefighters
  • preschool teachers
  • doctors
  • Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), as an occupation, as a self-conscious class
    <snide>again, uttered with out irony</snide>

Quotes

  • <quote>Our needs are very large and it is farfetched to think technology will eliminate the need for work.</quote>i>
  • <quote>But one innovation that is absolutely not needed is UBI (Universal Basic Income), which some have suggested as a reponse to technological progress, and which has to rank as one of the dumbest ideas of all time. </quote>

Pantheon

  • Carl Benedikt Frey, staff, Oxford University.
  • Rodney Brooks
    • professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
    • CEO, Rethink Robotics
  • Bill Gates, boffo.
  • Benoit Hamon, candidate for president, Socialist Party, France.
  • Marvin Minsky, a scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
  • Gordon Moore, co-founder, Intel.
  • Nil NilsonNils John Nilsson
  • Michael A. Osborne, staff, Oxford University.
  • Klaus Schwab, founder and chairman, World Economic Forum (WEF).
  • Gail Garfield Schwartz, an economist, specializing in labor.
  • Gianni Versace, boffo.

Referenced

Previously

In Their Blog, at the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF)…

Argot

The Suitcase Words
  • artificial intelligence
  • unprecedented
  • 4th Industrial Revolution
  • artificial intelligence
  • autonomous vehicles
  • robots
  • other breakthroughs
  • Industrial Revolution
  • look like a period of stability. We are already seeing this shake the very foundations of our economies, with
  • labor productivity growth rates
  • skyrocketing
  • worker dislocation
  • the lion’s share,
    the lion’s share powered by technology.
  • the pace
    the pace of dislocation will only increase.
  • The only constant is change
    made that one up, you like?
  • a scientist,
    one scientist,
    one leading scientist,one leading artificial intelligence scientist
  • predicts
  • general intelligence
  • an average human being
  • AI scientist Nil Nilson (sic) Nils John Nilsson
  • warns
  • full employment,
    the notion of full employment.
  • the pace,
    the pace of technical change is accelerating
  • the pace of technical change is accelerating
    and the only constant is change, see it works!
  • labor economist Gail Garfield Schwartz
  • warns
  • out of work
  • in a generation
  • warns
  • jobs,
    jobs will be eliminated,
    jobs will be eliminated worldwide by 2020 by robotics and AI.
  • Oxford researchers Michael A. Osborne and Carl Benedikt Frey
  • predict
  • warn
  • sex workers,
    sex workers could be out of work
    [who are these people?]
  • incumbent on policymakers
  • slow down,
    slow down to a more manageable pace of change.
    to where only the change is only constant! Wheee!
  • a tax on robots
  • Social Security taxes.
    Social Security taxes, on robots.
  • This is an idea that has been championed by luminaries such as
  • Bill Gates
  • French Socialist presidential candidate Benoit Hamon
  • the wealth,
    the wealth creates benefits for the shareholders
  • the social contribution
  • added value
  • <quote><snip/>the social contributions on the whole of the added value and not just on the work<quote>, attributed ot Benoit Hamon.
  • Universal Basic Income (UBI)
  • sustain themselves
  • productivity rates
  • slowdowns
  • the risk,
    the risk of a U.S. worker losing their job,
    the risk of a U.S. worker losing their job from a shutdown or downsizing.
  • 4th Industrial Revolution
  • predictions,
    predictions by experts?
  • “predictions”
    “predictions” were made in the 1970’s and 80’s.
  • the machine,
    the machine with human intelligence
    the machine with human intelligence within the next three to eight years
  • MIT scientist Marvin Minsky
  • The prediction about 20 percent of the workforce out of work was made in 1982.
  • full employment,
    give up on full employment,
    The call to give up on full employment.
  • scary
  • distinguish,
    can’t distinguish,
    someone can’t distinguish between millions and billions.
  • winning the lottery,
    chance of winning the lottery,
    almost as much chance of winning the lottery as…
  • incompetent,
    your CEO is incompetent.
  • <quote>Maybe robots replacing CEO’s is the answer to job security.</quote>
  • the study,
    The Study. That. Shows.
    the Oxford study by Osborne and Frey,
    the Oxford study by Osborne and Frey that warns…
  • the study,
    the Oxford study,
    coverage of the Oxford study.
  • Jack Daniels,
    a bottle of Jack Daniels,
    to wager a bottle of Jack Daniels.
  • peer review
  • occupational categories,
    702 occupational categories,
    all 702 occupational categories,
    neglected to examine all 702 occupational categories
  • task measures,
  • task measures from the Department of Labor,
    task measures from the Department of Labor, which assessed occupations based on factors…
    task measures from the Department of Labor, which assessed occupations based on factors such as how much manual dexterity…
    task measures from the Department of Labor, which assessed occupations based on factors such as how much manual dexterity and social perceptiveness [as occupational requirements].
  • destined,
    destined for the trash heap…
    destined for the trash heap of techno-history.
  • nonsense,
    their methodology produces nonsense.
  • going
    going the way of the buggy whip maker
  • Versace
  • The Jetsons
  • chair,
    the magic robot chair
  • fretting,
    instead of fretting…
    instead of fretting about … killing jobs,
    instead of fretting about tech killing jobs.
  • worrying,
    instead be worrying…
    instead be worrying about … productivity …,
    instead be worrying about … productivity growth rates …
    instead be worrying about … raise productivity growth rates …
    instead be worrying about … raise productivity growth rates, which have been at all-time lows over the last decade.
    instead be worrying about … going to raise productivity growth rates, which have been at all-time lows over the last decade.
    instead be worrying about how the heck are we ever going to raise productivity growth rates, which have been at all-time lows over the last decade.
    <wow!> <paf!> </wow!>
  • assault,
    the assault,
    the robot assault
  • MIT professor and CEO of Rethink Robotics Rodney Brooks
  • words,
    suitcase words,
    misled by suitcase words.
  • errors,
    category errors,
    category errors in fungibility of capabilities.
  • errors,
    category errors,
    category errors comparable to seeing the rise of more efficient internal combustion engines …
    errors,
    category errors,
    category errors comparable to seeing the rise of more efficient internal combustion engines and jumping to the conclusion that warp drives are just around the corner.
  • Beam me up, Scotty.
  • techno-utopians/dystopians,
    these techno-utopians/dystopians.
  • Moore’s law, (sic) Moore’s Law),
    the continuation of Moore’s Law.
  • Intel’s co-founder [Gordon Moore]
  • exponentials,
    The nature of exponentials
  • is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens.” Disaster will happen long before
  • Ex Machina,
    the alluring robot in Ex Machina.
  • There’s another reason to calm down.
  • This is pretty obvious if you just think about it.
  • Productivity leads to lower prices and/or higher wages.
  • This money gets spent.
  • That spending creates jobs.
  • panic,
    to panic,
    we are to panic,
    if we are to panic …
    if we are to panic, and panic can be a good thing.
  • retirement,
    the massive retirement,
    the massive retirement of baby boomers.
  • a war,
    a generational war,
    a generational war where …
    a generational war where either the old people or the younger workers will win.
  • people,
    working-age people, old people,
    the ratio of working-age people to old people.
  • incomes,
    after-tax incomes.
  • productivity,
    increasing productivity,
    increasing productivity to raise incomes,
    keep increasing productivity to raise incomes.
  • household,
    household today,
    American household today,
    the average American household today.
  • incomes,
    increased their incomes,
    productivity gains increased their incomes …
    productivity gains increased their incomes from $60K to $240K.
  • hippies,
    simple-living hippies,
    a few simple-living hippies.

Know Thy Futurist | Boston Review

Know Thy Futurist; Cathy O’Neil; In Boston Review; 2017-09-25.

tl;dr → Cathy O’Neil, who is not bitter, envies the scholar-gentleman futurists as she aspires to their life of the mind, for which she writes.
and → futurists are scary people; they are serious people; they are never sour or defeated people; they are not silly people.
and → A “four box” model, two axes, four quadrants; named Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4.
and → Facebook is bad.

Models

The Latent Model, single-axis [the lede is buried-last]
  • Men ↔ Women
    (bad) ↔ (good)
The Declared Model, orthogonal-axes
  • Worried ↔ Exuberant
  • Dystopian ↔ Utopian

Indictment

  • data scientists are creating machines
    data scientists are creating machines they do not fully understand.
  • data scientists are creating machines that separates winners from losers,
    data scientists are creating machines that separates winners from losers for reasons that are already very familiar to us
    These reasons are enumerated, by iconic euphemism-cum-epithet as:

    • class
    • race
    • age
    • disability status
    • quality of education
    • and other demographic measures (“other”).
  • [data scientists' activities in the creation of machines] is a threat to the very concept of social mobility.
  • [data scientists' activities in the creation of machines] is the end of the American dream.

Wherein a data scientist is a statistician who lives in San Francisco and performs their work-product on a Macintosh computer [ref].

Separately noted.

 

Advertising Trade Groups Object to Safari’s New Intelligent Tracking Protection | John Gruber

John Gruber; Daring Fireball: Advertising Trade Groups Object to Safari’s New Intelligent Tracking Protection; In His Blog; 2017-09-16.

tl;dr → the gloating. Big Bad Apple pulled one over on Big Bad AdTech.  Gruber a Cupertino boosterist. Quotes from the Microsoft pantheon are exhibited.

Occasion

Every Major Advertising Group Is Blasting Apple for Blocking Cookies in the Safari Browser; ; In Ad Week; 2017-09-14.
Teaser: They argue it’ll hurt user experience and campaign targeting

Mentions

  • Intelligent Tracking Prevention (ITP)
  • Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)
  • American Advertising Federation (AAF)
  • Association of National Advertisers (ANA)
  • Trade Group Name with Four ‘A’s in it (4A)
    American Association of Advanced Advertisers (AAAA, 4A)
    American Association of Advertising Agencies (4As)

Who

 

The OODA loop of Trump’s Insurgency has been Smashed | John Robb

John Robb; The OODA loop of Trump’s Insurgency has been Smashed; In His Blog; 2017-09-15.

tl;dr → Wherein the most powerful thing a man can do is to foretell the future, for that makes him a prophet and peer unto The Prophet, and unto God himself.  John Robb prophesied, back in the day, way back in 2016-Q1; and now he’s telling us, reminding us.  He had foretold unto us, in a newsletter, in a blog.
and → The sooth is sayed.  A report out: based on information, belief, analysis, aspiration & Insight; wherein General John Kelly, in his role as Chief of Staff, is restricting access to Donald J. Trump; this is insinuated to be a coup by any other name, as such by The Military [Industrial Complex]; Donald J. Trump, in response, is no longer slaking his prurient interest.  DJT is not now, nor ever was, the adult in the room.

Argot

The Suitcase Words
  • Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA)
  • John Boyd
  • Insurgency, The Insurgency

Toward a Fourth Law of Robotics: Preserving Attribution, Responsibility, and Explainability in an Algorithmic Society | Pasquale

Frank A. Pasquale III; Toward a Fourth Law of Robotics: Preserving Attribution, Responsibility, and Explainability in an Algorithmic Society; Ohio State Law Journal, Vol. 78, 2017, U of Maryland Legal Studies Research Paper No. 2017-21; 2017-07-14; 13 pages; ssrn:3002546.

tl;dr → A comment for Balkin. To wit:
  1. Balkin should have supplied more context; such correction is supplied herewith.
  2. More expansive supervision is indicated; such expansion is supplied herewith.
  3. Another law is warranted; not a trinity, but perfection plus one more

Four Laws, here and previous:

  1. machine operators are always responsible for their machines.
  2. businesses are always responsible for their operators.
  3. machines must not pollute.
  4. A [machine] must always indicate the identity of its creator, controller, or owner.

Love the erudition; but this is just like planes, trains & automobiles.

Separately noted.

Zuckerberg’s Preposterous Defense of Facebook – NYT

Zuckerberg’s Preposterous Defense of Facebook; Zeynep Tufekci; In New York Times (NYT); 2017-09-29.

Zeynep Tufekci
  • serial tweeter, @zeynep
  • associate professor, School of Information and Library Science, University of North Carolina
  • Twitter and Tear Gas: The Power and Fragility of Networked Protest; Yale University Press; 2017-05-18; 360 pages; ASIN:0300215126: Kindle: $13, paper: $16+SHT

tl;dr → Facebook as embodied in the person of Mark Zuckerberg is wrong; Facebook is bad; Mark Zuckerberg is bad.

Occasion

Who

  • Mark Zuckerberg, is chief executive, Facebook.
  • Donald J. Trump, is a serial tweetist.
    He is not the President of the United States, but plays one on TV
    He did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
    He has been remanded to the National Adult Day Care Facility etc.
    To wit:

    It’s a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.

    — Senator Bob Corker (@SenBobCorker) 2017-10-08

Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030 | Michael Haupt

1Michael Haupt; Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030; In His Blog, centrally hosted on Medium; 2016-11-11.
Teaser: Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030.

tl;dr → What’s hot circa 2015: Interactive Voice Response, The Data Licentiate, The Universal Dossier, (Ever-more) Precise Targeting, Propensity Prediction

Predictions

  1. The End of Privacy Concerns
  2. The Transfer of Data Ownership
  3. The End of Broadcast Advertising
  4. The Rise of Personal ChatBots
  5. The Shift Toward Evolved Enterprises (more services, more persuasion)
  6. The Shift From Communicating to Predicting

Persons

  1. Jay Abraham
  2. Paul Adams
  3. Alex Bogusky
  4. Cindy Gallop
  5. Seth Godin
  6. Bob Hoffman
  7. Naomi Klein
  8. Kalle Lasn
  9. Mary Meeker
  10. Al Ries & Laura Ries
  11. Luke Sullivan
  12. Monte Wilson
Also
  • Peter Diamandis
  • Ray Kurzweil
  • Gerd Leonhard
  • Mat Schlicht

Mentions

  • A universal history approach.
    as technological megashifts
  • X.ai
    • Funding: $23M, Series B funding.
  • Additive Manufacturing
    his neologism for 3-dimensional Printing (3D Printing)
  • The consumer (the users) are the product, of the social venues.
  • Something about predictive analytics (propensity scoring) in content marketing
    but the concept is not developed.
  • Precision>target audiencesto timely circumstances</quote>

Forces

Understood as transitions current state to next state.

Concern Current State Next State
Focus Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) Creativity, Originality, Reciprocity, Empathy and Intuition (COREI)
World Rational, Logical, Predictable Random, Empatetic, Emotional
World View Mechanistic Ecological
Interactions Competition and Manipulation Collaboration and Problem Solving
Organizations Hierarchical Command & Control Circles, Swarms, Swirls
Fetish Efficiency, Cost Reduction, Speed, Profit Connection, Nurturing, Love.

Exemplars

In order of apparance in the work…

Social Venues

  • Google
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
Chatbots
  • Siri of Apple
  • Cortana of Microsoft
  • Now of Google
  • Echo of Amazon
    (sic) Alexa
Manufacturing
  • Google
  • Microsoft
  • HTC
  • Samsung

Aspects

  • Infinite Computing
  • Artificial Super-Intelligence
  • Sensors & Networks
  • Robotics
  • 3D Printing
  • Virtual and Augmented Reality:

Pantheon

Jay Abraham
Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
Website.
Twitter.
Paul Adams
LinkedIn.
ex-Google, ex-Facebook, “head” of product, Intercom.
Grouped; Publisher?; 2011; ASIN:0321804112: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Alex Bogusky
Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
The 9-Inch Diet; Publisher; 2009; ASIN:157687320X: Kindle: $20?
tl;dr → Burger King is bad.
Website.
Twitter.
Peter Diamandis
Medium
Cindy Gallop
Medium
Honorific: is brash.
Make Love Not Porn, a talk, at Theater, Entertainment, Distraction (TED), hosted on YouTube; WHEN? (these performances typically run ~20 min).
Website
Twitter.
Seth Godin
Medium.
Claimed: has popularized “permission marketing.”
Website.
Twitter.
Bob Hoffman
Medium
Scrivener, the Ad Contrarian, a blog <quote>who’s been “making marketers uncomfortable since 2013.</quote>
Website.
Blog.
Twitter.
Naomi Klein
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Honorific: an activist.
Claimed: branding is oppression.
No Logo; Publisher?; 2000; ASIN:000734077X: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Ray Kurzweil
Chief futurist, Google.
Website
Kalle Lasn
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Founder, Adbusters (magazine).
“Chief architect,” Occupy Wall Street Movement.
Claimed: consumerism is evil.
Culture Jam: America’s Suicidal Binge; Publisher?; WHEN? ASIN:B00DY4O5GE: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Gerd Leonhard
Medium.
Seer, booster.
Mary Meeker
LinkedIn
Staff, Partner title?, Kleiner Perkins, Caulfield & Byers (KPCB)
Claimed: publishes Internet Trends, serial slideware, annual.
Webpage.
Twitter.
Al Ries
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Claimed: “the father of positioning”
Al Reis, Laura Reis, The Fall of Advertising; self-published (ebook); 209; ASIN:B000FC11PG: Kindle: $20?
Website, Al & Laura Ries, father and daughter marketing strategists
Laura Ries
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Al Reis, Laura Reis; The Fall of Advertising; ibidem.
Twitter.
Website, ibidem.
Luke Sullivan
Medium
Hey Whipple, Squeeze This; Publisher?; WHEN? ASIN:B01AVKWLCS: Kindle: $20?; Website Twitter.
tl;dr → <quote>a diatribe</quote>.
Matt Schlicht
Medium
Monte Wilson
LinkedIn.
ex-Adobe, Oracle, EMC.
Some Talk; At Some Venue, hosted On YouTube; 2016.
tl;dr → on the scientism of “sided” brain thinking.

Referenced

Previously

In His Blog

Also

Also His Blog

The Three Laws of Robotics in the Age of Big Data | Balkin

Jack M. Balkin  (Yale); The Three Laws of Robotics in the Age of Big Data; Ohio State Law Journal, Vol. 78, (2017), Forthcoming (real soon now, RSN), Yale Law School, Public Law Research Paper No. 592; 2016-12-29 → 2017-09-10; 45 pages; ssrn:2890965.

tl;dr → administrative laws [should be] directed at human beings and human organizations, not at [machines].

Laws

  1. machine operators are responsible
    [for the operations of their machines, always & everywhere]
  2. businesses are responsible
    [for the operation of their machines, always & everywhere]
  3. machines must not pollute
    [in a sense to be defined later: e.g. by a "tussle"]

Love the erudition; but none of this is new.

Separately noted.

What should you think about when using Facebook? | Boykis

Vicki Boykis; What should you think about when using Facebook?; In Her Blog, centrally hosted on GitHub; 2017-02-01

tl;dr → Facebook is bad.

Mentions

All the ways that Facebook is bad…

Governments turn tables by suing public records requesters | Associated Press

Governments turn tables by suing public records requesters; Ryan J. Foley; In News of The Associated Press; 2017-09-18.

Occasion

Some litigation, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Oregon.

Original Sources

Jonathan Peters; Some Some Article; In Columbia Journalism Review; “in” 2015,

Quoted

Jonathan Peters; professor of journalism, University of Kansas