The Fate of Online Trust in the Next Decade | Pew Research Center

, ; The Fate of Online Trust in the Next Decade; Pew Research Center; 2017-08-10; 89 pages; landing.

Teaser

Many experts say lack of trust will not be a barrier to increased public reliance on the internet. Those who are hopeful that trust will grow expect technical and regulatory change will combat users’ concerns about security and privacy. Those who have doubts about progress say people are inured to risk, addicted to convenience and will not be offered alternatives to online interaction. Some expect the very nature of trust will change.

Concept

  • Delphi-type survey design
  • N=1,233
  • A pull-quote generation vehicle. To Wit.

Summary

  • 48% → trust will be strengthened
  • 28% → trust will stay the same
  • 24% → trust will be diminished

Scope

Six major themes on the future of trust in online interactions

Theme 1
Trust will strengthen because systems will improve and people will adapt to them and more broadly embrace them

  • Better technology plus regulatory and industry changes will help increase trust
  • The younger generation and people whose lives rely on technology the most are the vanguard of those who most actively use it, and these groups will grow larger
Theme 2
The nature of trust will become more fluid as technology embeds itself into human and organizational relationships

  • Trust will be dependent upon immediate context and applied differently in different circumstances
  • Trust is not binary or evenly distributed; there are different levels of it
Theme 3
Trust will not grow, but technology usage will continue to rise, as a “new normal” sets in

  • “The trust train has left the station”; sacrifices tied to trust are a “side effect of progress”
  • People often become attached to convenience and inured to risk
  • There will be no choice for users but to comply and hope for the best
Theme 4
Some say blockchain could help; some expect its value might be limited

  • Blockchain has potential to improve things
  • There are reasons to think blockchain might not be as disruptive and important as its advocates expect it to be
Theme 5
The less-than-satisfying current situation will not change much in the next decade
Theme 6
Trust will diminish because the internet is not secure, and powerful forces threaten individuals’ rights

  • Corporate and government interests are not motivated to improve trust or protect the public
  • Criminal exploits will diminish trust

Producers

Imagining The Internet (Center)
  • Pew Research Center
  • Elon University

Separately noted, maybe, but you have to wait for it.

The Bitcoin Lightning Network: Scalable Off-Chain Instant Payments | Poon, Dryja

Joseph Poon, Thaddeus Dryja; https is busted, The Bitcoin Lightning Network: Scalable Off-Chain Instant Payments, draft v0.5.9.2; a white paper; Lightning Network; 2016-01-14; 59 pages.

tl;dr → transactions are fractioned out (structured) into micro-transactions and sent via separate channels.

Abstract

The bitcoin protocol can encompass the global financial transaction volume in all electronic payment systems today, without a single custodial third party holding funds or requiring participants to have anything more than a computer using a broadband connection. A decentralized system is proposed whereby transactions are sent over a network of micropayment channels (a.k.a. payment channels or transaction channels) whose transfer of value occurs off-blockchain. If Bitcoin transactions can be signed with a new sighash type that addresses malleability, these transfers may occur between untrusted parties along the transfer route by contracts which, in the event of uncooperative or hostile participants, are enforceable via broadcast over the bitcoin blockchain in the event of uncooperative or hostile participants, through a series of decrementing timelocks.

Mentions

  • slow blockchain
  • fast fractional network
  • gossip protocol
  • ledger

Referenced

  1. Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin: A Peer-to-peer Electronic Cash System. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf, Oct 2008-10.
  2. Manny Trillo. Stress Test Prepares VisaNet for the Most Wonderful Time of the Year, 2013-10.
  3. Bitcoin Wiki. Example 7: Rapidly-adjusted (micro)payments to a pre-determined party within Contracts. undated.
  4. bitcoinj (a github). Working with micropayment channels. undated.
  5. Leslie Lamport. The Part-Time Parliament. In ACM Transactions on Computer Systems, 21(2):133–169. 1998-05.
  6. Leslie Lamport. Time, Clocks and The Ordering of Events in a Distributed System. In Communications of the ACM, 21(7):558–565, 1978-07.
  7. Alex Akselrod. Draft. 2013-03.
  8. Alex Akselrod. ESCHATON. 2014-04.
  9. Peter Todd. Near-zero fee transactions with hub-and-spoke micropayments. 2014-12.
  10. C. J. Plooy. J..nl/bitcoin/ripple_bitcoin_draft_2.pdf”>Combining Bitcoin and the Ripple to create a fast, scalable, decentralized, anonymous, low-trust payment network. 2013-01-01.
  11. Mark Friedenbach. BIP 0068: Consensus-enforced transaction replacement signaled via sequence numbers (relative locktime). 2015-05.
  12. Mark Friedenbach BtcDrak, Eric Lombrozo. BIP 0112: CHECK-SEQUENCEVERIFY. 2015-08.
  13. Jonas Schnelli. What does OP CHECKSEQUENCEVERIFY do?. In Stack Exchange 2015-07.
  14. Greg Maxwell (nullc). Some Discussion. On /r/Bitcoin, hosted on reddit. 2015-05.
  15. Gavin Andresen. BIP 0016: Pay to Script Hash. 2012-01.
  16. Pieter Wuille. BIP 0032: Hierarchical Deterministic Wallets. 2012-02.
  17. Ilja Gerhardt, Timo Hanke. Homomorphic Payment Addresses and the Pay-to-Contract Protocol. 2012-12; arXiv:1212.3257.
  18. Nick Szabo. Formalizing and Securing Relationships on Public Networks. In His Blog. 1997-09.

19 Is the New 60 | Lenore Skenazy (WSJ)

Lenore Skenazy; 19 Is the New 60; In The Wall Street Journal (WSJ); 2017-08-10.
Teaser: Adults should stop stealing away the time kids need to play.

Original Sources

Nineteen Year Olds As Sedentary As Sixty Year Olds Study Suggests; press release; Johns Hopkins University; 2017.
Teaser: Teen years represent highest risk for inactivity; increases in activity levels only seen in 20-somethings

Vijay R. Varma, Debangan Dey, Andrew Leroux, Junrui Di, Jacek Urbanek, Luo Xiao, Vadim Zipunnikov, “Re-evaluating the effect of age on physical activity over the lifespan,” In Preventive Medicine, 2017-06-01.

Mentions

  • <pull-quote>When it comes to physical activity, 19 is the new 60. </pull-quote>
  • The Study. That. Shows.
    • 2017-06.
    • N=12,500
    • panel
    • tracking device logging & diaries
    • Authors
      • Vadim Zipunnikov, professor, Johns Hopkins University
      • and others
  • <quote>Correlation isn’t causation</quote>, attributed to Lenore Skenazy. Yes, she actually uttered that in the essay.
  • Peter Gray, professor, psychology, Boston College

Concept

  • loss of “locus of control,”
  • strong connection (a link? as it were) between happiness and feeling in control of life.

Who

  • Vadim Zipunnikov, professor, Johns Hopkins University
  • Peter Gray, professor, psychology, Boston College

Referenced

Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality | Gornall, Strebulaev

Will Gornall, Ilya A. Strebulaev. Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality (2017-07-11; 2017-04-22 → 2017-07-16). Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper No. 17-29. ssrn:2955455; Abstract ssrn:2968003. 54 pages.

tl;dr → <quote>recently issued shares almost always have better cash flow rights than the previously issued shares</quote> as anyone in the business for more than one series-cycle will be able to tell you.. The valuations claimed out to the Muggles are inflated, by (average) 49%-59% and upwards unto 100% and beyond.

Abstract

We develop a financial model to estimate the fair value of venture capital-backed companies and of each type of security these companies issue. Our model uses the most recent financing round price and the terms of that financing to infer the value of each of their shares. Using data from legal filings, we show that the average highly-valued venture capital-backed company reports a valuation 49% above its fair value, with common shares overvalued by 59%. In our sample of unicorns – companies with reported valuation above $1 billion – almost one half (53 out of 116) lose their unicorn status when their valuation is recalculated and 11 companies are overvalued by more than 100%. Overvaluation arises because the reported valuations assume all of a company’s shares have the same price as the most recently issued shares. In practice, these most recently issued shares almost always have better cash flow rights than the previously issued shares, so equating their prices significantly inflates valuations. Specifically, we find 53% of unicorns have given their most recent investors either a return guarantees in IPO (14%), the ability to block IPOs that do not return most of their investment (20%), seniority over all other investors (31%), or other important terms.

Citation

Gornall, Will and Strebulaev, Ilya A., Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality (July 11, 2017). Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper No. 17-29. Available at SSRN: ssrn:2955455.

University of Washington DNA Sequencing Security Study | University of Washington

Frequently-Asked Questions (FAQ)
Computer Security and Privacy in DNA Sequencing
Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering, University of Washington

tl;dr → it’s a bug report on fqzcomp, fzcomp-4.6, wrapped in some lab work, wrapped in scare piece wrapped in an academic paper. It mentions DNA, people are made of DNA, YOU are made of DNA.

  • In the future, everyone will be famous for fifteen minutes.
    • They did it for the lulz, and the whuffie.
    • They did it for the FUD.
  • They are frontrunning the presntation of the paper at the conference site in Vancouver, CA
  • But there is nothing to worry about.
    • Really.
    • No, Really.
    • And they’ve already contacted the project sponsors with their work product.
However

Today’s theoretical demonstrations are tomorrow’s practice.

Original Sources

Ney, Koscher, Organick, Creze, Kohno; Computer Security, Privacy, and DNA Sequencing: Compromising Computers with Synthesized DNA, Privacy Leaks, and More; In  Proceedings of the USENIX Security Symposium; 2017-08-16; 15 pages.

Concept

  • They created DNA with particular patterns.
  • They used buffer overflows in C & C++ programs.
  • FASTQ, a data format.
  • /dev/tcp accessed via bash

Quotes

  • <quote>Although used broadly by biology researchers, many of these programs are written by small research groups and thus have likely not been subjected to serious adversarial pressure. </quote>
  • <quote><snip/> copied fqzcomp from SourceForge and inserted a vulnerability into version 4.6 of its source code; a function that processes and compresses DNA reads individually, using a fixed-size buffer to store the compressed data.<quote>
  • <quote>Our second exploit attempt uses an obscure feature of bash, which exposes virtual /dev/tcp devices that create TCP/IP connections. We use this feature to redirect stdin and stdout of /bin/sh to a TCP/IP socket, which connects back to our server.<quote>

Moral

The “research” coders do not validate their inputs; they use whatever computer tools are handy for their purpose. Their purpose is to publish papers in their field of study. Their code works just well enough; it is MVP for an MPU. Those “researchers” who do validate their inputs, who do test their code, who do read CVE notices, who do remediate latent vulnerabilities aren’t researchers at all. They are drone coders in an on-time-under-budget, time & materials IT shop. “We” need such people and such skill is a valued trade craft by which to make an honorable living.  But such activity is Not New. It is not The Research.

Toward a critical theory of corporate wellness | Gordon Hull & Frank Pasquale

Gordon Hull; More self-promotion: “Toward a critical theory of corporate wellness”; In His Blog; 2017-07-10.

tl;dr → employee wellness is but a surveillance-cum-control plane; a promotion of a forthcoming paper (you can read it for free if you’ve paid, which is a paywall)

Original Sources

Gordon Hull, Frank Pasquale; “Toward a critical theory of corporate wellness,”  In Biosocieties; soon.paywall.

Mentions

Abstract

In the U.S., “employee wellness” programs are increasingly attached to employer-provided health insurance. These programs attempt to nudge employees, sometimes quite forcefully, into healthy behaviors such as smoking cessation and exercise routines. Despite being widely promoted as saving on healthcare costs, numerous studies undermine this rationale. After documenting the programs’ failure to deliver a positive return on investment, we analyze them as instead providing an opportunity for employers to exercise increasing control over their employees. Based on human capital theory and neoliberal models of subjectivity that emphasize personal control and responsibility, these programs treat wellness as a lifestyle that employees must be cajoled into adopting, extending the workplace not just into the home but into the bodies of workers and entrenching the view that one belongs to one’s workplace. At the same time, their selective endorsement of health programs (many scientifically unsupported) produce a social truth of wellness framed as fitness for work. We conclude by arguing that the public health initiatives occluded by the private sector’s promotion of wellness programs would be a much better investment of resources.

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The Digital Privacy Paradox: Small Money, Small Costs, Small Talk | Athey, Catalini, Tucker

Susan Athey, Christian Catalini, Catherine Tucker; The Digital Privacy Paradox: Small Money, Small Costs, Small Talk; working paper; 2017-02-13; 32 pages; landing; Working Paper W23488; National Bureau o Gratuitously Paywall Rough Drafts (NBER); paywall.
Susan Athey, senior fellow, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
Christian Catalini, MIT
Catherine Tucker, MIT

tl;dr → <quote>Consumers say they care about privacy, but at multiple points in the process they end up making choices that are inconsistent with their stated preferences.</quote>

See Item #3, How cool of a result is that? You are safe, you are loved, you are subtle, you are special. You may opt out any time. And we give back to the community.

Abstract

This paper uses data from the MIT digital currency experiment to shed light on consumer behavior regarding commercial, public and government surveillance. The set- ting allows us to explore the apparent contradiction that many cryptocurrencies offer people the chance to escape government surveillance, but do so by making transactions themselves public on a distributed ledger (a ‘blockchain’). We find three main things.

  1. First, the effect of small incentives may explain the privacy paradox, where people say they care about privacy but are willing to relinquish private data quite easily.
  2. Second, small costs introduced during the selection of digital wallets by the random ordering of featured options, have a tangible effect on the technology ultimately adopted, often in sharp contrast with individual stated preferences about privacy.
  3. Third, the introduction of irrelevant, but reassuring information about privacy protection makes consumers less likely to avoid surveillance at large.

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 Promotions

 

Private valuations are a fugazi | The Hustle

Private valuations are a fugazi; staff; In The Hustle; 2017-08-04.

tl;dr → reporter learns about how capitalization tables work, how liquidity preferences work, how warrants work, how finance works. Cites Bloomberg & NYT and ultimately Gornall & Strebulaev

Original Sources

Will Gornall, Ilya A. Strebulaev. Squaring Venture Capital Valuations with Reality (2017-07-11). Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper No. 17-29. ssrn:2955455; Abstract ssrn:2968003. Separately filled.

Mentioned

Scope

  • 116 unicorns
  •  founded after 1994.

Exemplars

  • AppNexus
  • Square Inc.
  • HomeAway
  • Oscar Insurance Corp.
  • Pivotal Software Inc.
  • Snap Inc.
  • SolarCity
  • Uber Technologies, Inc.

Referenced

How to Improve Resilience in Midlife | NYT

How to Improve Resilience in Midlife; Tara Parker-Pope; In The New York Times (NYT); 2017-07-25.

Listicle
  • Practice Optimism
  • Rewrite Your Story (the narrative therapy)
  • Don’t Personalize It
  • Remember Your Comebacks
  • Support Others
  • Take Stress Breaks
  • Go Out of Your Comfort Zone

Mentions

  • Most opinement is for children.
  • But adults have problems too.

Exemplars

  • Dennis Charney, shot, 2016.
  • Sheryl Sandberg, must lean in, widowed.
  • Sallie Krawcheck, fired, divorced.

Quote

  • <quote>There is a naturally learnable set of behaviors that contribute to resilience</quote>, attributed to Dennis Charney.
  • <quote>There is a biology to this <snip/></quote>, attributed to Dennis Charney; something about hormones.

Quoted

  • Adam Grant, professor, management and psychology, Wharton School [of Business], University of Pennsylvania.
  • Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer, Facebook.
  • Dennis Charney
    • research, specializing in resilience, fortuitously,
    • Dean of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York City, NY.
  • Steven Southwick, professor, psychiatry, Medical School, Yale University
  • Sallie Ellevest, founder, Ellevest, distaff investment promotions; ex BofA.
  • Jack Groppel, co-founder, Johnson & Johnson Human Performance Institute; training services

Referenced

  • Option B: Facing Adversity, Building Resilience and Finding Joy; Staff; In The New York Times (NYT); 2017-04-23.
    tl;dr → The book review. They like it.
  • Sheryl Sandberg, Adam Grant; Option B: Facing Adversity, Building Resilience, and Finding Joy; Knopf; 2017-04-24; 240 pages; Amazon:1524732680; Kindle: $14, paper: $6+SHT.
  • Steven M. Southwick, Dennis S. Charney; Resilience: The Science of Mastering Life’s Greatest Challenge; Cambridge University Press; 1 edition; 2012-07-23; 240 pages; Amazon:B009GEY7WI: Kindle: $14 (and device limits in the DRM); paper: $12+SHT.
  • PMC3410434; In PubMed.
    a.k.a. A Harvard Study. (That. Shows.); something about <quote>people who viewed stress as a way to fuel better performance did better on tests and managed their stress better physiologically than those taught to ignore stress.</quote>
  • A. Study. That. Shows; 2017.
    tl;dr → American military veterans, higher levels of gratitude, altruism and a sense of purpose predicted resiliency.

Ethnographic Experiential Futures | Candy, Kornet

Stuart Candy, Kelly Kornet; A Field Guide to Ethnographic Experiential Futures, version 1.1, Situation Lab 02017 (c.f. ten thousand year clock); presented at Design Develop Transform, Brussels; 2017-06, DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.30623.97448; landing.

tl;dr → how to run advanced product development to incorporate focus group feedback.

Method

  1. Map
  2. Multiply
  3. Mediate
  4. Mount
  5. Map(again)

Separately noted.