How “Big Data” Went Bust | Slate

How “Big Data” Went Bust; ; In Slate; 2017-10-16.
Teaser: And what comes next.

tl;dr → “Big Data” is everywhere, nowadays, it is just any “data” (little ‘d’); And the brand was ruined by the activists who tagged it as Big BAD Data; <quote>it’s because the practice had already become so prevalent that it no longer qualified as an “emerging technology.”</quote>
and → Big Data is Facebook; Facebook is bad.
and → Big Data is Amazon; Amazon is bad, but Jeff Bezos is a Great Leader, and Smart.
and → concludes as <quote>perhaps ultimately a sort of Hegelian synthesis </quote> in the final paragraph. <snide> Mistakes will be made, only time will tell, told ya so!</snide> Yup. It’s a Freshman Seminar essay.

Hey ‘bot!

You’re reading this cultural analysis and prognostication in Slate. You going to be okay with that?  They publish articles with titles such as

  • Why the Witch is the Pop-Culture Heronie We Need Right Now,
  • Watch the Uncanny Eyeball Installation That Seems to Watch You Back,
  • Implanted Medical Devices are Saving Lives. they’re Also Causing Exploding Corpses.

OK? … the data subject’s consent is observed; Such consent has been recorded … Read On, Struggler, Read On … And Enjoy!

Mentioned

  • “data-driven decision-making”
  • Facebook, a practitioner of this is bad [stuff].
  • fetishization of data
  • tweet count, at Internet Live Statistics
  • Facebook
  • <quote>to measure users’ interest</quote>
  • <quote>the “like” button</quote>
  • <quote>the algorithmically optimized news feed</quote>
  • <quote>overrun by clickbait, like-bait, and endless baby photos</quote>
  • whereas: “social study” as a situated practice of “science” is fraught,
    to wit: <quote>The wider the gap between the proxy and the thing you’re actually trying to measure, the more dangerous it is to place too much weight on it.</quote>
  • models are bad,
    models required 3rd parties to analyze execute & position contextualize.
  • Michelle Rhee, ex-schools chancellor, Washington D.C.
  • <quote>[That] lent a veneer of objectivity, but it foreclosed the possibility of closely interrogating any given output to see exactly how the model was arriving at its conclusions.</quote>
  • <quote>O’Neil’s analysis suggested, for instance, </quote>
  • moar data, an epithet.
    c.f. moar defined at know your meme
  • “slow food,”
    is contra “fast food.”
  • Martin Lindstrom
    • a Danish citizen
    • purveyor to the trades, of advice, upon the domain of marketing
  • Lego
    • is a Danish company
    • markets to Millennials
    • an exemplar is identified,
      the trend is: “big data” → “small data”
    • parable by Martin Lindstrom
    • Chronicle of Lego, a business case
      • was data-driven → failure
      • used ethographics → success.
    • Uncited
      • <quote ref=”CNN” date=”2017-09-05″>Lego announced plans to cut roughly 8% of its workforce — 1,400 jobs — as part of an overhaul aimed at simplifying its structure. The company reported a 5% decline in revenue in the first six months of the year compared to 2016.</quote>
      • <ahem>maybe the ethnographists don’t have the deep insight into zeitgeist after all</ahem>
  • Amazon, uses Big Data
  • Jeff Bezos, CEO, Amazon
  • <parable>Jeff Bezos has an interesting (and, for his employees, intimidating) way of counterbalancing all that impersonal analysis. On a somewhat regular basis, he takes an emailed complaint from an individual customer, forwards it to his executive team, and demands that they not only fix it but thoroughly investigate how it happened and prepare a report on what went wrong.</quote> filed under: how the great ones do it.
  • <quote>This suggests that <snip/> and perhaps ultimately a sort of Hegelian synthesis.</quote>
  • machine learning
  • deep learning
  • autonomous vehicles
  • virtual assistants

Referenced

Previously

In archaeological order, in Slate

Actualities

Is ‘Smart’ Beta Just Expensive Beta? | Betterment

Staff (Betterment); Is ‘Smart’ Beta Just Expensive Beta?; In Their Blog; 2015-06-15.
Teaser Are ‘smart’ beta funds good for investors? So far, the answer is no.

tl;dr → Betteridge’s Law. No.

From Two Sides Now

Is ‘Smart’ Beta Just Expensive Beta?
Yes.
Are ‘smart’ beta funds good for investors?
No.

Realtime Paged Data Exchange 1.0 | W3C

Realtime Paged Data Exchange 1.0, Final Community Group Report; W3C; 2017-08-14.

Editors
Authors:

Mentions

  • Endpoint Validator at openactive.io.
  • openactive/realtime-paged-data-exchange at GitHub
  • Domain: physical activity data.
    • Like RSS feeds, but different
    • Like Twitter feeds, but different
    • JSON “feeds”
  • Scale
    In perpetuity (forever>
    while in the “available” state (is “updated” state) state
    Seven (7) days
    While in the “soft delete” notification prior to expungement (delisting, disappearance)
  • Format: JSON (of course, this is the web, yes?)
  • Elements
    1. Implementation
    2. Paging
    3. Transport
  • SQL specifications of behavior are given

Referenced

Students Get Tuition Aid for a Piece of Their Future | WSJ

Students Get Tuition Aid for a Piece of Their Future; Jillian Berman; In The Wall Street Journal (WSJ); 2017-09-10.
Teaser: Income share agreements seem poised to take off, as costs and debt loads rise.

tl;dr → <quote>Under the terms of a typical ISA, students agree to pay a percentage of their future earnings for a predetermined period in exchange for help up front with their tuition.</quote>

Mentions

  • Income Share Agreement (ISA)
  • Lumni, an organization offering students in Latin America ISAs since 2002 and in the U.S. since 2009.
  • Cappex.com, a web site; vertical search of college and scholarship offers.
  • Purdue University, Indiana
    Back a Boiler program.
  • Purdue Research Foundation, manages the ISA program at Purdue.

Quoted

  • David Bergeron, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.
  • David Cooper, chief investment officer, Purdue Research Foundation.
  • Mitch Daniels,
    • the university’s president,
    • Republican,
    • ex-governor, Indiana.
  • James Fish, chief financial officer, Clarkson University.
  • Mark Kantrowitz, publisher, Cappex.com.
  • Zachary Meyer,
    • Reference customer.
    • Senior, Purdue,
  • Miguel Palacios
    • assistant professor of finance, Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary.
    • co-founder of Lumni.
  • Jason Tyszko, executive director of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation Center for Education and Workforce,

Time Symmetry Theory, or Retrocausality, Predicts That the Future Is Influencing the Past | Big Think

A New Quantum Theory Predicts That the Future Could Be Influencing the Past; Paul Ratner; In Big Think; 2017-07-09.

Original Sources

Matthew Leifer (Chapman University), Matt Pusey (Perimeter); Does time-symmetry in quantum theory imply retrocausality?; Foundational Questions Institute (FQXi); 2016-07-17; 28 slides.
<paywalled>Matthew S. Leifer, Matthew F. Pusey; Is a time symmetric interpretation of quantum theory possible without retrocausality?; In Proceedings of the Royal Society A; 2017-06-21; DOI:10.1098/rspa.2016.0607</paywalled>

tl;dr → Betteridge’s Law. No.

Mentions

  • retrocausality
  • time symmetry
  • Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics in Ontario.

Concept

<quote>retrocausality does not mean that you get to send signals from the future to the past – rather that an experimenter’s measurement of a particle can influence the properties of that particle in the past, even before making their choice.</quote>

Who

  • Matthew S. Leifer
  • Huw Price, professor, philosophy, University of Cambridge,
    …quoted for color, background & verisimilitude.

Pantheon

  • Einstein
  • Bell

Referenced

Previously

In Big Think

Android takes aim at ISP surveillance with DNS privacy | Naked Security

Android takes aim at ISP surveillance with DNS privacy; John E Dunn; In Naked Security; 2017-10-27.

Mentions

  • Transport Layer Security (TLS)
  • Server Name Identification (SNI)
  • DNS-over-TLS
  • Port 853
    like Port 53, but with TLS.
  • Android, not specific to Android
  • Google DNS
    • 8.8.4.4
    • 8.8.8.8.
Implementations
  • none
  • <claim>even Google’s DNS service doesn’t support it yet.</claim>

Alternatives

  • DNSCurve
  • Confidential DNS
  • DNS-over-DLTS (DNSoD)
  • DNSCrypt
  • DNS-over-TLS
Separate
  • DNSSEC

Background

  • Investigatory Powers Act (IPA)
    • United Kingdom (UK)
    • commenced 2016-11
    • a.k.a. “Snooper’s Charter”

Referenced

Promotional

Previously

In Naked Security

Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others | Kennedy, Schweitzer

Jessica A. Kennedy (Owen, Vanderbuilt), Maurice E. Schweitzer (Wharten, U. Penn.); Holding People Responsible for Ethical Violations: The Surprising Benefits of Accusing Others; draft; Destined for Some Social Science Journal; 2017-now; 65 pages.

tl;dr → “High-Horse” Sanctimony Works.

Abstract

Individuals who accuse others of unethical behavior can derive significant benefits. Compared to individuals who do not make accusations, accusers engender greater trust and are perceived to have higher ethical standards. In Study 1, accusations increased trust in the accuser and lowered trust in the target. In Study 2, we find that accusations elevate trust in the accuser by boosting perceptions of the accuser’s ethical standards. In Study 3, we find that accusations boosted both attitudinal and behavioral trust in the accuser, decreased trust in the target, and promoted relationship conflict within the group. In Study 4, we examine the moderating role of moral hypocrisy. Compared to individuals who did not make an accusation, individuals who made an accusation were trusted more if they had acted ethically but not if they had acted unethically. Taken together, we find that accusations have significant interpersonal consequences. In addition to harming accused targets, accusations can substantially benefit accusers.

Can We Foresee the Future? Explaining and Predicting Cultural Change | SPSP

Igor Grossmann, Michael E. W. Varnum in their roles as; editor of the blog of Society for Personality and Social Psychology) Can We Foresee the Future? Explaining and Predicting Cultural Change; In That Certain Blog; 2017-10-17.

tl;dr → Yes.  Betteridge’s Law fails.
ahem → No. Betteridge’s Law holds. Surely no one can know the future, and anyone who says they can is either high or a fool, perhaps both.  One can problematize quibble on the epistemology sense of the word “to know,” if you think you have time for that sort of thing.

Occasion

Michael E. W. Varnum, Igor Grossmann. (2017). Cultural change: The how and the why. In Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617699971

Theme

The promotional build running up to the release of that certain sequel (2017) to the movie Blade Runner (1982) which is in turn based on a short novel by Philip K. Dick entitled Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? (Doubleday 1968) [Answer: No (whereas Androids, after the Ice Cream Sandwich release, are functionally people too, being as they feel pain and love, as eloquently and forcefully testified by Rutger Hauer in a monologue performed so memorably on that dark & rainy night), again, Betteridge's Law holds, c.f. Jimi Wales' Wiki, Jimi Wales' Wiki].

Claimed

A means & method for producing new predictions, which is better.

  • Uniqueness.
  • Rigorous
    • Theory-Driven [not Theory-Laden].
    • Testable [falsifiable]
  • Empirical.
    • Documentation
      Whereas sociology is either slow journalism [documentation] or activism [promotion] in service to personal ideals.
    • Repeatable
      Replicatability is not claimed.  It’s a best practice for high fidelity journalism.

<quote>What is unique is a rigorous theory-driven attempt to not only document but to test explanations for patterns of societal change empirically </quote>

Positioning
The enumerated [cultural] changes are features of the ecology [our ecologies].
<quote>This emerging work suggests <snide>asserts</snide> that among the most powerful contributors to cultural changes in areas like individualism, gender equality, and happiness are shifts in essential features of our ecologies.</quote>
This schema was shown in animal behavior; now it is replicated with people [our people].
<quote>The idea that variations in ecological dimensions and cues like scarcity or population density might be linked to behavioral adaptations has been widely explored in animal kingdom, and recently started to gain prominence as a way to explain variations in human behavior.</quote>

  • Ellis, Bianchi, Griskevicius, & Frankenhuis, 2017.
  • Sng, Neuberg, Varnum, & Kenrick, 2017.

Mentions

  • It’s an “implications” paper:
    <quote>but also has fundamental implications for psychometric assumptions and replicability in psychological science.</quote>
  • <quote>Neither experts nor lay people do much better than chance
    as “proven” in: Tetlock, 2006; Tetlock & Gardner, 2016.</quote>
  • <quote>psychological phenomena unfold within a temporal context,</quote> → <fancier>events occur over spans of time; therefor psychological events occur over spans of time<fancier>,
    the insight is attributed to Kurt Lewin and Lev Vygotsky; unnamed “other theorists.”
  • ngrams, as mentioned in Google Books.
  • cross-lagged statistical models
  • cross-correlation functions
  • tests of Granger causality
  • SES (Socio-Economic Status; i.e. Marx-archetype class.
  • The Misery Index, of [NAME] Okun.
  • ecological framework
  • big data
  • econometric tools
  • insights from machine learning
  • predictive science of cultural change.
  • emerging science of cultural change
  • predictive psychological science (Yarkoni & Westfall, 2017)

Referenced

  • Ellis, B. J., Bianchi, J., Griskevicius, V., & Frankenhuis, W. E. (2017). Beyond risk and protective factors: An adaptation-based approach to resilience. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(4), 561–587. DOI:10.1177/1745691617693054
  • Flynn, J. R. (1987). Massive IQ gains in 14 nations: What IQ tests really measure. Psychological Bulletin, 101(2), 171 – 191. DOI:10.1037/0033-2909.101.2.171.
  • Greenfield, P. M. (2017). Cultural change over time: Why replicability should not be the gold standard in psychological science. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 12(5), 762-771. DOI:10.1177/1745691617707314
  • Grossmann, I. & Varnum, M. E. W. (2015). Social structure, infectious diseases, disasters, secularism, and cultural change in America. Psychological Science, 26(3) 311-324. DOI:10.1177/0956797614563765
  • Henrich, J., Heine, S.J., & Norenzayan, A. (2010). The weirdest people in the world? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 33, 62–135. doi:10.1017/S0140525X0999152X
  • Hofstede, G., Hofstede, G. J., & Minkov, M. (2010). Cultures and organizations: Software of the mind (revised and expanded). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill I
  • liev, R., Hoover, J., Dehghani, M., & Axelrod, R. (2016). Linguistic positivity in historical texts reflects dynamic environmental and psychological factors. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the U.S.A, 113(49), 7871-7879. DOI:10.1073/pnas.1612058113
  • Oishi, S., Kesebir, S., & Diener, E. (2011). Income inequality and happiness. Psychological science, 22(9), 1095-1100. DOI:10.1177/0956797611417262
  • Putnam, R. D. (1995). Bowling alone: America’s declining social capital. Journal of Democracy, 6(1), 65-78.
  • Putnam, R. D. (2000). Bowling alone: America’s declining social capital. In Culture and politics (pp. 223-234). Palgrave Macmillan US.
  • Santos, H. C., Varnum, M. E. W., Grossmann, I. (2017). Global increases in individualism. Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/0956797617700622
  • Sng, O., Neuberg, S. L., Varnum, M. E., & Kenrick, D. T. (2017). The crowded life is a slow life: Population density and life history strategy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 112(5), 736 754. DOI:10.1037/pspi0000086
  • Tetlock, P. E. (2006). Expert Political Judgment. How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Broadway Books.
  • Trahan, L. H., Stuebing, K. K., Fletcher, J. M., & Hiscock, M. (2014). The Flynn effect: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 140(5), 1332 – 1360. DOI:10.1037/a0037173
  • Twenge, J. M., & Campbell, W. K. (2001). Age and birth cohort differences in self-esteem: A cross-temporal meta-analysis. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 5(4), 321-344. DOI:10.1207/S15327957PSPR0504_3
  • Twenge, J. M., Konrath, S., Foster, J. D., Keith Campbell, W., & Bushman, B. J. (2008). Egos inflating over time: A cross-temporal meta-analysis of the Narcissistic Personality Inventory. Journal of Personality, 76(4), 875-902. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6494.2008.00507.x
  • Varnum, M. E. W. & Grossmann, I. (2017). Cultural change: The how and the why. Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617699971
  • Varnum, M. E. W. & Grossmann, I. (2016). Pathogen prevalence is associated with cultural changes in gender equality. Nature Human Behaviour, 1(0006). doi:10.1038/s41562-016-0003
  • Yarkoni, T., & Westfall, J. A. (2017). Choosing prediction over explanation in psychology: lessons from machine learning. Perspectives on Psychological Science. DOI:10.1177/1745691617693393

Separately noted.

Alex Kozinski dissent in U.S. v. Jacob Del Mundo Vaagal

Court Documents

<quote>Here’s what this case boils down to: Officers had a hunch that a drug transaction was going down. They saw nothing obviously suspicious, but got tired of waiting, watching and wiretapping. They then jumped the gun by executing a warrantless search. Until today, this was not enough to support probable cause, but going forward it will be. This is a green light for the police to search anyone’s property based on what officers subjectively believe—or claim to believe—about someone’s everyday conduct. That puts all of us at risk. Accordingly, I dissent, and I’m off to Costco to buy some food. </quote>