Mobile 2.0 (Web 3.0) | Benedict Evans

Benedict (Ben) Evans (A16z); Mobile 2.0 (not Web 3.0); In His Blog; 2017-01-31 (one year ago).

tl;dr → A paean. “The mobile” is the Bee’s Knees!
and → The signal is given: a new S-Curve is commencing.
and → The unbunding / rebundling / unbundling / rebundling cycle, a metaphor of growth-cum-renewal.

Mentions

Scope

  • Amazon
    • They sell stuff, which is purchased by “the mobile” (demographic)
    • Alexa
    • Echo
  • Apple
    • AirPods
    • They make The Phones, which are “the mobile” (a totem of the demographic)
  • Facebook
    • is “the browser”
    • Instant Articles
  • Google
    • Accelerated Mobile Pages (AMP)
    • YouTube, is “the video”
  • Snapchat
    • <rly?>
    • Spectacles

Historiography

Web 1.0
1994, Netscape launched
Web 2.0
2004, Tim O’Reilly, broadband, Yahoo, Flickr, “the social”
Mobile 1.0
2007, the iPhone launch.
Web 3.0 Mobile 2.0
“The Web” is dead; the Wintel device & it’s browser is not relevant any more.
Ah Bullion Yoosers, On. Smart. Phones.
WiFi, The ‘Gs, 3 & 4, LTE, High-DPI screens, 100x GPUs, Sensors (cameras). Cameras

Unaccounted

Missing in the Analysis
  • How is it that The Telecoms will allow this?
    Whereas

    • The Phone is sold through their financing apparatus.
    • The Phone operates on spectrum owned by them.
    • The Phone engenders a billable event every month.
  • Are The Telecoms so inept that they cannot (re-)capture the consumer?
    • Constrained by The Regulation?
    • Mired in The Buraucracy?
    • The corporate DNA (as a metaphor for corporate culture) of Old Monopoly Ma Bell disallows new modes of thinking?
    • They are disinterested?
  • Maybe with 5G!

Free Association

  • Computers with eyes
  • Combining the camera with touch
  • Video (the sight, sound & motion)
  • <alert><cliche>Consuming content; Deeper engagement.<cliche></alert>
  • <quote>Video is the new HTML, or the new Flash.<quote>
  • Facebook, is “the browser.”
  • YouTube, is “the video.”
  • sides of the brain.
  • “unbundle” the phone.
  • a cluster of little devices that orbit the (smart) phone.
  • Alexa == Spectacles
    <quote>create a new, independent end-point for the cloud that they can own themselves.</quote>
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • multi-touch
  • machine learning
  • computer vision
  • voice recognition
  • WOW!

Parable

Business Decision-Making from Folkloric Reasoning on the The Mythological Paradigms

<quote>Alternatively, you can look at this as part of the way that tech swings from bundling to unbundling:

  • AOL bundled content
  • [T]he [W]eb unbundled AOL
  • Google bundled the web,
  • [A]pps unbundled properties from [T]he [B]rowser,
    but also bundled each site into a single icon,
  • and now these platforms form new bundles.

The pendulum will swing back the other way again, at some point. And in parallel, one could argue that Snapchat itself unbundled not ‘photos’ but fun and self-expression from Facebook.</quote>

Estimation

  • Something about app stores and social distribution.
    Except for China, which is different.
  • App distribution requires owning an app store
  • Content distribution is by the linkbait techniques

 

Regulate Facebook Like AIM | Motherboard

Regulate Facebook Like AIM; Louise Matsakis; In Motherboard; 2017-10-06.
Teaser: In 2001, the FCC forced AIM to become compatible with other chat platforms. We should do the same to Facebook.

tl;dr → A modest proposal; for the lulz and the page views.
and → Facebook is bad.

Occasion

[Previously in Motherboard] AOL Messenger shuts down 2017-12-15.; [recently]

Mentions

  • AOL Instant Messenger (AIM)
    • Shutdown 2017-12-15.
  • ICQ
  • Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
  • America On Line (AOL)
  • Time Warner

Quoted

For color, background & verisimilitude…

Curiosity gap about AdTech, you won’t believe what happens next!

; Things you should know about AdTech, today; In His Blog, centrally hosted on LinkedIn; 2017-08-30; regwalled.

Occasion

Boosterism in front of the trade shows
  • Exchange Wire #ATSL17
  • Dmexco
  • Programmatic IO

Separately noted.

How M&A Impacts The Remaining DSPs | Ad Exchanger

How M&A Impacts The Remaining DSPs; ; In Ad Exchanger; 2017-08-21.

tl;dr → header bidding has killedwill kill the DSP, as a business proposition.

Mentions

  • Demand-Side Platform (DSP)
    [pure-play] Demand-Side Platform (DSP)
  • No new DSPs are prognosticated
    • Too expensive to build new.
    • Insufficient return once built.
    • Costs are mounting
  • [DSP] business model is flawed
    • Derisk the agency
    • Own the media until delivered.
    • Financial arbitrage
  • Claim: [many] agencies have gone from working with four to six buying platforms to closer to three now, attributed to Martin Kihn, Gartner.
  • the walled garden platforms
    contra
    the pure-play platforms

Rankings

  1. Google’s DoubleClick Bid Manager (DBM)
  2. Amazon
  3. “seven or eight” closely packed DSPs
    1. The Trade Desk
    2. MediaMath
    3. the rest… being: “five or six”

Source: opinement, Ad Perceptions in AdExchanger

Quoted

  • Michael Baker, CEO, DataXu
  • Julian Baring, general manager for North America, Adform.
  • Martin Kihn, research VP, Gartner
  • Kevin Mannion, CSO, Advertiser Perceptions
  • Rob Perdue, COO, The Trade Desk

Exemplars

Supply-Side Platforms (SSP)

  • Tremor Video
    sold: Taptica, the DSP operations
  • Rubicon Project
    abandoned DSP operations

Pure-Play DSPs

Sold to telecom
  • Turn,
    sold to SingTel
  • Oath (née AOL and Yahoo)
    sold to Verizon
Sold to Elsewhere
  • Rocket Fuel, sold to Sizmek owned by “private equity,”
  • TubeMogul, sold to Adobe

Previously

In Ad Exchanger

The Changing Digital Landscape: Where Things are Heading | Pew Research Center

The Changing Digital Landscape: Where Things are Heading; (Pew Research Center); Presented at Tencent Media Summit, Beijing, China; 2015-11-12; 36 slides.

Contents

  • Three (3) digital revolutions have changed the news
  • State of the digital news media 2015
  • Six (6) impacts on news and the media
  • Five (5) trends for the future

Separately noted.

 

Verizon’s Zombie Cookie Gets New Life | ProPublica

Verizon’s Zombie Cookie Gets New Life; Julia Angwin, Jeff Larson; In ProPublica; 2015-10-06.
Teaser: Verizon is merging its cellphone tracking supercookie with AOL’s ad tracking network to match users’ online habits with their offline details.

Mentions

  • The article babytalks it as “Zombie Cookie”‘
    does not mention the name UIDH
  • Verizon
  • AOL
  • Ad Programs, an announcement, Verizon
    • Data sharing with AOL
    • Data
      • Age
      • Gender
      • General Interest Categories
  • Opt Out Affordance
  • Counterpoint
    • Access, a digital rights organization.

Quoted

For color, background & verisimilitude.

  • Deji Olukotun, Access, a digital rights organization.
  • Karen Zacharia, chief privacy officer. Verizon.

Web Publishers Aren’t Feeling the Heat From Mobile Ad Blocking — Yet | WSJ

Web Publishers Aren’t Feeling the Heat From Mobile Ad Blocking — Yet; Mike Shields; In The Wall Street Journal (WSJ); 2015-09-22
Teaser: Media companies say their mobile traffic has held steady, though they are all taking the issue seriously

tl;dr → reporter testifies that he called around; nobody’s feelin’ it yet.

Mentions

  • Ad Blockers
  • Blockr

Surveyed

  • AOL
  • The Awl
  • Business Insider
  • Daily Meal
  • Evolve Media
  • CBS
    • CNET
  • Thought & Expression Company
  • Undertone
  • Univision

Quoted

for color, background & verisimilitude

  • Mark Lopez, executive vice president and general manager, Univision Digital.
  • Brian D. Fitzgerald, president & founder, Evolve Media
  • Alex Magnin, chief revenue officer, Thought & Expression Company

ZeroRatingAds promotion by Shine (an ad block blocker)

ZeroRatingAds by Shine.

Concept

Zero Rating of advertisements; ads count against telecom usage limits.

<quote>can be implemented by carriers and ad tech providers to prevent subscribers from being charged for the growing volume of data being consumed by mobile ads.</quote>

Promotion

Phone Carriers Asked [by Shine] to Block Ads From Consumers’ Data Charges; ; In Advertising Age; 2015-09-07.
Teaser: Ad Blocker [Shine] Buys Full-Page Ad in FT to Push ‘Zero-Rating’ Mobile Ads

How Merkle Is Navigating The Cross-Device Arms Race | AdExchanger

How Merkle Is Navigating The Cross-Device Arms Race; In Ad Exchanger; 2015-07-30.

Concept

  • Google → probabilistic intent (signalling) → Adometry + DoubleClick
  • Facebook → deterministic (people-based) → Atlas

Mentions

  • Merkle
  • Is not like, yet is like
    • Google
    • Facebook Atlas
  • Quoted
    • John Lee, CSO (Chief Science Officer?), Merkle
    • Ruth Kirschner, director of platform sales, Google/DoubleClick
    • Erik Johnson, “head” of Atlas by Facebook
  • Merkle prefers Adometry
  • YouTube is Google
  • <quote>With the world’s three most popular websites (Google, Facebook and YouTube) and the world’s most popular apps (all 12 apps that have crossed the 1 billion download threshold in the Play Store come from either Google or Facebook), [John Lee of Merkle] doesn’t anticipate change until one or the other feels someone “nipping at their heels.”</quote>

Previously