Mobile 2.0 (Web 3.0) | Benedict Evans

Benedict (Ben) Evans (A16z); Mobile 2.0 (not Web 3.0); In His Blog; 2017-01-31 (one year ago).

tl;dr → A paean. “The mobile” is the Bee’s Knees!
and → The signal is given: a new S-Curve is commencing.
and → The unbunding / rebundling / unbundling / rebundling cycle, a metaphor of growth-cum-renewal.

Mentions

Scope

  • Amazon
    • They sell stuff, which is purchased by “the mobile” (demographic)
    • Alexa
    • Echo
  • Apple
    • AirPods
    • They make The Phones, which are “the mobile” (a totem of the demographic)
  • Facebook
    • is “the browser”
    • Instant Articles
  • Google
    • Accelerated Mobile Pages (AMP)
    • YouTube, is “the video”
  • Snapchat
    • <rly?>
    • Spectacles

Historiography

Web 1.0
1994, Netscape launched
Web 2.0
2004, Tim O’Reilly, broadband, Yahoo, Flickr, “the social”
Mobile 1.0
2007, the iPhone launch.
Web 3.0 Mobile 2.0
“The Web” is dead; the Wintel device & it’s browser is not relevant any more.
Ah Bullion Yoosers, On. Smart. Phones.
WiFi, The ‘Gs, 3 & 4, LTE, High-DPI screens, 100x GPUs, Sensors (cameras). Cameras

Unaccounted

Missing in the Analysis
  • How is it that The Telecoms will allow this?
    Whereas

    • The Phone is sold through their financing apparatus.
    • The Phone operates on spectrum owned by them.
    • The Phone engenders a billable event every month.
  • Are The Telecoms so inept that they cannot (re-)capture the consumer?
    • Constrained by The Regulation?
    • Mired in The Buraucracy?
    • The corporate DNA (as a metaphor for corporate culture) of Old Monopoly Ma Bell disallows new modes of thinking?
    • They are disinterested?
  • Maybe with 5G!

Free Association

  • Computers with eyes
  • Combining the camera with touch
  • Video (the sight, sound & motion)
  • <alert><cliche>Consuming content; Deeper engagement.<cliche></alert>
  • <quote>Video is the new HTML, or the new Flash.<quote>
  • Facebook, is “the browser.”
  • YouTube, is “the video.”
  • sides of the brain.
  • “unbundle” the phone.
  • a cluster of little devices that orbit the (smart) phone.
  • Alexa == Spectacles
    <quote>create a new, independent end-point for the cloud that they can own themselves.</quote>
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • multi-touch
  • machine learning
  • computer vision
  • voice recognition
  • WOW!

Parable

Business Decision-Making from Folkloric Reasoning on the The Mythological Paradigms

<quote>Alternatively, you can look at this as part of the way that tech swings from bundling to unbundling:

  • AOL bundled content
  • [T]he [W]eb unbundled AOL
  • Google bundled the web,
  • [A]pps unbundled properties from [T]he [B]rowser,
    but also bundled each site into a single icon,
  • and now these platforms form new bundles.

The pendulum will swing back the other way again, at some point. And in parallel, one could argue that Snapchat itself unbundled not ‘photos’ but fun and self-expression from Facebook.</quote>

Estimation

  • Something about app stores and social distribution.
    Except for China, which is different.
  • App distribution requires owning an app store
  • Content distribution is by the linkbait techniques

 

The Internet Isn’t Optimized For Meritocracy | MediaPost

The Internet Isn’t Optimized For Meritocracy; ; In MediaPost; 2017-09-01.
Kaila Colbin is co-founder, Ministry of Awesome, an NGO, a community booster club for Christchurch, NZ
“Ministry of Awesome is the starting point for making things happen in Christchurch, NZ”

tl;dr → Kaila Colbin is unhappy, in some unspecified way.
and → Amazon, Facebook, Google, Netflix, YouTube are bad.

Scope

  • Amazon
  • Facebook
  • Google
  • Netflix
  • YouTube

Mentions

  • Her point, and she does have one…
    The references are helpful.

Referenced

  • “On the Internet, no one knows you’re a dog”, In The New Yorker, 1993-07; cartoon.
  • Network Effect; In Jimi Wales; Wiki.
  • Ben Thompson; Aggregation Theory; In His Blog; WHEN?
  • Benedict Evans (A16z); Winner Take All; In His Blog; 2017-08-20.
    tl;dr → there is a Network Effect (“winner take all” effect) in the industry supporting autonomous automobiles; e.g. LIDAR units are a commodity, anyone and everyone makes them could make them.
    Thusly, The Salubrious Effect accrues unto

    1. [businesses selling] software
    2. [businesses selling] city-wide optimization and routing [services]
    3. [businesses operating] on-demand fleets.

Mobile is eating the world | Benedict Evans

Benedict (Ben) Evans (A16n); Mobile is eating the world; In Their Blog, His Blog; 2016, and yearly,

Mentions

  • GAFA contra Wintel
    Wintel contra IBM
  • GAFA (something like)
    • Google
    • Apple
    • Facebook
    • Amazon
  • All charts up-and-to-the-right.
  • It’s just phenomenal!
  • S-curves, mini S-curves.
    • Augmented Reality
    • Machine Learning
  • Netflix
    not a “threat” to anyone
  • Hardware
    • Google TPU FPGA for machine learning
    • Amazon Annapurna ASIC for networking
    • Apple A10 SoC, a CPU “for mobile”,
      also chips for Touch Id Airpods, etc.
  • Machine Learning
  • Alpha Go
  • Cameras → “Cameras everywhere, except in cameras”
  • Complexity contra abstraction
  • Apps
    • obvious but boring (and what is that?)
    • Facebook
    • something about live video and (vertical) 16:9 or 16:8 screens
  • Frictionless computing
    a.k.a. is e-commerce by Amazon
  • Something about sensors
  • “Who owns the customer?”
  • Retailers as (metaphoric) newsppers
    old, dirty, falling revenues, ugly business model.
  • Claim-in-Theory
    • Amazon is “Google for buying”
    • missing demand generation; a.k.a. the “discovery” concept
      • “Buzzfeed for shopping”
      • “Facebook for shopping”
      • <ahem>Uber for shopping</ahem>
  • Aphorisms-as-Theory
    • The Channel is the Product
    • YOU are the Product
    • Computer should never ask what can be autodetected, copied, deduced, attributed to Eric Raymond.
  • Cars (electric, autonomic, flying)
    • Electric motors are commodities, and simple.
    • Pattern-as-Theory
      • Nokia 2001 felled by Apple 2016
    • Something about how mapping software is “the moat” nowadays, not physical command of powertrain, dynamics, safety via metal shaping, bending, coloring.
  • <quote>The biggest changes are unknownable.</quote>
    <ahem>Only time will tell.</quote>

Previously

Content isn’t king | Benedict Evans

Benedict (“Ben”) Evans; Content isn’t king; In His Blog; 2017-07-16.

tl;dr → The media publishing vertical empires (a.k.a. “the tech industry”) no longer need licensed art from Southern California.  they have made something “bigger.” The art is just a marketing tool, a checkbox feature. A grand sweep of history forces-type argument is presented.

Mentions

  • Mindsets
    • .Northern California
    • Southern California
    • New Yorrk

Soup

  • Kindle
  • Spotify
  • Apple
  • Google
  • Android
  • Amazon
  • Alexa
  • Netflix
  • Facebook

16 mobile theses (a compendium, review & overview of 2015) | Benedict Evans

Benedict Evans; 16 mobile theses; In His Blog; 2015-12-18; podcast.

Listicle

  1. Mobile is the new central ecosystem of tech
  2. Mobile is the internet
  3. Mobile isn’t about small screens and PCs aren’t about keyboards
    Mobile means an ecosystem and that ecosystem will swallow ‘PCs’
    It is the ARM ecosystem, not the Wintel ecosystem.
  4. The future of productivity
  5. Microsoft’s capitulation
  6. Apple & Google both won, but it’s complicated
  7. Search and discovery
  8. Apps and the web
  9. Post Netscape, post PageRank, looking for the next run-time
  10. Messaging as a platform, and a way to get customers.
  11. The unclear future of Android and the OEM world
  12. Internet of Things
  13. Cars
  14. TV and the living room
  15. Watches
  16. Finally, we are not our users

Referenced

Previously

In archaeological order.

InContext 2014

InContext 2014