Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Claimed: “the father of positioning”
Al Reis, Laura Reis, The Fall of Advertising; self-published (ebook); 209; ASIN:B000FC11PG: Kindle: $20? Website, Al & Laura Ries, father and daughter marketing strategists
tl;dr → Calm down. Get You’ve had your fun, now get back to work. Keep your day job.
and → <quote>The claims are ludicrous.</quote>
and → <quote>Predicting the future is really hard, especially ahead of time.</quote>
A. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). B. The Singularity. C. Misaligned Values. D. Really evil horrible nasty human-destroying Artificially Intelligent entities.
[A,B,C,D] Over and under estimating
[B,C,D] Imagining Magic
[A,B,C] Performance versus competence
[A,B] Suitcase words
[C,D] Hollywood scenarios
[B,C,D] SPEED OF Deployment
The corpus is surveyed.
People with some serious-sounding titles are being very silly.
Which are largely negative exemplars of the Clarity of Thinking to which he strives…
Greg Milner; Pinpoint: How GPS is Changing Technology, Culture, and Our Minds, W. W. Norton, 2016.
“V2s for Ionosphere Research?”, Arthur C. Clarke, In Wireless World, 1945-02, page 45.
“Extra-Terrestrial Relays: Can Rocket Stations Give World-wide Radio Coverage”, Arthur C. Clarke, In Wireless World, pages 305–308, 1945-10.
Marvin Minsky, The Emotion Machine: Commonsense Thinking, Artificial Intelligence, and the Future of the Human Mind, Simon and Schuster, 2006.
tl;dr → bloggist discovers that Mary Meeker (for KPCB) is talking up their book. Welcome grasshoper, you have awoke!
<quote>But take the report for what it is — an extremely effective piece of content marketing, promoting the trends and interests of a company selectively invested in the space. Nothing sinister here — I fully believe KPCB saw their portfolio companies as a part of future trends first, not that they are trying to engineer these trends after the fact.</quote>
Prospection—the ability to represent what might happen in the future—is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior.
ex-Apple, product management for media, who from 2014 to 2016.
Jonathan Badeen, co-founder and chief strategy officer, Tinder
<quote>Trying to predict where technology will be in a decade may be a fool’s errand, but how often do we get to tie up so many emerging trends in a neat package?</quote>
<quote>All these technologies—interfacing with our smart homes, smart cars, even smart cities—will constitute not just a new way to interact with computers but a new way of life. And of course, worrisome levels of privacy invasion.</quote>
<quote>By 2027, Apple and its competitors will also have cemented a world of tradeoffs: If you want your life enhanced by AI and all the rest of this tech, you’re going to have to submit to constant surveillance—by your devices or, in many cases, by the tech giants themselves. Apple’s bet is that you will trust it to do this: The company’s privacy stance is that it isn’t going to look at or share your data, and it will be encrypted so others can’t look at it, either.</quote>
Currently, several million people have accounts in massively multiplayer online games. The population of virtual worlds has grown rapidly since 1996; significantly, each world also seems to grow its own economy, with production, assets and trade with Earth economies. This paper explores two questions about these developments. First, will these economies grow in importance? Second, if they do grow, how will that affect real-world economies and governments? To shed light on the first question, the paper presents a simple choice model of the demand for game time. The model reveals a certain puzzle about puzzles and games: in the demand for these kinds of interactive entertainment goods, people reveal that they are willing to pay money to be constrained. Still, the nature of games as a produced good suggests that technological advances, and heavy competition, will drive the future development of virtual worlds. If virtual worlds do become a large part of the daily life of humans, their development may have an impact on the macroeconomies of Earth. It will also raise certain constitutional issues, since it is not clear, today, exactly who has jurisdiction over these new economies.
<ahem>To claim that there is a problematic at work here in the juristictional supervision of these online entertainment services is specious, at best; and at least, willfully ignorant.</ahem> Who owns the computers upon which they operate, and to whom is payment made to allow participation thereon? These, at least, are the subjects of jurisdictional supervision.
Au, Wagner James (2002), “Playing Games With Free Speech,” Technology and Business, salon.com, May 6.
Bartle, Richard. Designing Virtual Worlds. Indianapolis: New Riders, 2003.
Becker, David (2002), “Game Exchange Suit Goes to Court,” CNET News.com, February 7.
Borges, Jorge Luis (1962), “The Lottery in Babylon,” translated by John M. Fein, in Borges, Labyrinths: Selected Stories and Other Writings, New York: New Directions Publishing.
Castronova, Edward (2001a), “Virtual Worlds: A First-Hand Account of Market and Society on the Cyberian Frontier,” CESifo Working Paper No. 618, December.
_______ (2001b), “Achievement Bias in the Evolution of Preferences,” Gruter Institute Working Papers on Law, Economics, and Evolutionary Biology, Volume 2.
Dibbell, Julian. My Tiny Life: Crime and Passion in a Virtual World. New York: Henry Holt, 1999.
Easterlin, Richard A. (2001), “Income and Happiness: Towards a Unified Theory,” Economic Journal, 111, 465-484.
Eco, Umberto (1989), Foucault’s Pendulum, translated by William Weaver, New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
Engwall, Lars (1994), “Bridge, Poker, and Banking,” in Donald E. Fair and Robert Raymond, eds., TheCompetitiveness of Financial Institutions and Centres inEurope, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 227-39.
Johnson, Steven (2002), “Wild Things,” Wired, March.
Kaplan, Carl S. (2001), “Florida Community Can’t Shut Down ‘Voyeur Dorm,’” New York Times, October 5.
Kurzweil, Ray (1999), TheAge of Spiritual Machines, New York: Penguin Books.
Lastowka, F. Greg and Dan Hunter (2004), “The Laws of Virtual Worlds,” forthcoming in California Law Review.
Liebowitz, S.J. and Stephen Margolis (1994), “Network Externality: An Uncommon Tragedy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(2), 133-150.
MacDonald, Glenn M. (1988), “The Economics of Rising Stars,” American Economic Review, 78(1), 155-66.
Metrick, Andrew (1995), “A Natural Experiment in ‘Jeopardy!” American Economic Review, 85(1), 240-53.
Mazalov, Vladimir V., Svetlana V. Panova, and Mojca Piskuric (1999), “Two-Person Bilateral Many-Rounds Poker,” Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 49(2), 267-82.
Mnookin, Jennifer L. “Virtual(ly) Law: The Emergence of Law in an On-Line Community.” In Peter Ludlow (ed.) Crypto Anarchy, Cyberstates, and Pirate Utopias. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001: 245-302.
Nash, John F. and Shapley, L. S. (1997), “A Simple Three-Person Poker Game,” in Mary Ann Dimand and Robert W. Dimand, eds., The Foundations of Game Theory, Volume II, Cheltenham: Elgar Reference Collection, 13-24.
Nichols, Mark W. (1998), “The Impact of Deregulation on Casino Win in Atlantic City,” Review of Industrial Organization, 13(6), 713-26.
Page, Scott E. (1998), “Let’s Make A Deal,” Economics Letters 61(2), 175-80.
Shubik, Martin (1999), “The ‘Bridge Game’ Economy: An Example of Indivisibilities,” in Martin Shubik, ed., TheSelected Essays of Martin Shubik, Cheltenham: Elgar, 184-187.
Simon, Herbert A., and Jonathan Schaeffer (1992), “The Game of Chess,” in Robert J. Aumann and Sergiu Hart, eds., Handbook of Game Theory With Economic Applications, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1-17.
This article critically discusses the state of STS, expressing feelings of discontent regarding four aspects: policy relevance, conceptual language, too much focus on complexity, theoretical styles. Middle range theory is proposed as an alternative, promising avenue. Middle range theories focus on delimited topics, make explicit efforts to combine concepts, and search for abstracted patterns and explanatory mechanisms. The article presents achievements in that direction for technology dynamics, particularly with regard to the role of expectations, niche theory and radical innovation, and the multi-level perspective on sociotechnical transitions.
Middle Range Theory (MRT)
Science & Techology Studies (STS)
Merton introduced the notion of MRT in sociology in the three editions
of Social Theory and Social Structure (1949, 1957, 1968). e.g.
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At the paywall, it is unclear who wrote the article. The paywall declares that it was Frank W. Geels, but provides an “author biography” for Casper Bruun Jensen.
Yup, it is Frank W. Geels. Yet…
Casper Bruun Jensen is
Associate professor at the Technologies in Practice group, IT University of Copenhagen.
Casper Bruun Jensen, Ontologies for Developing Things (Sense, 2010)
Casper Bruun Jensen, Brit Ross Winthereik, Monitoring Movements in Development (MIT, 2013).
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