Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030 | Michael Haupt

1Michael Haupt; Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030; In His Blog, centrally hosted on Medium; 2016-11-11.
Teaser: Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030.

tl;dr → What’s hot circa 2015: Interactive Voice Response, The Data Licentiate, The Universal Dossier, (Ever-more) Precise Targeting, Propensity Prediction

Predictions

  1. The End of Privacy Concerns
  2. The Transfer of Data Ownership
  3. The End of Broadcast Advertising
  4. The Rise of Personal ChatBots
  5. The Shift Toward Evolved Enterprises (more services, more persuasion)
  6. The Shift From Communicating to Predicting

Persons

  1. Jay Abraham
  2. Paul Adams
  3. Alex Bogusky
  4. Cindy Gallop
  5. Seth Godin
  6. Bob Hoffman
  7. Naomi Klein
  8. Kalle Lasn
  9. Mary Meeker
  10. Al Ries & Laura Ries
  11. Luke Sullivan
  12. Monte Wilson
Also
  • Peter Diamandis
  • Ray Kurzweil
  • Gerd Leonhard
  • Mat Schlicht

Mentions

  • A universal history approach.
    as technological megashifts
  • X.ai
    • Funding: $23M, Series B funding.
  • Additive Manufacturing
    his neologism for 3-dimensional Printing (3D Printing)
  • The consumer (the users) are the product, of the social venues.
  • Something about predictive analytics (propensity scoring) in content marketing
    but the concept is not developed.
  • Precision>target audiencesto timely circumstances</quote>

Forces

Understood as transitions current state to next state.

Concern Current State Next State
Focus Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) Creativity, Originality, Reciprocity, Empathy and Intuition (COREI)
World Rational, Logical, Predictable Random, Empatetic, Emotional
World View Mechanistic Ecological
Interactions Competition and Manipulation Collaboration and Problem Solving
Organizations Hierarchical Command & Control Circles, Swarms, Swirls
Fetish Efficiency, Cost Reduction, Speed, Profit Connection, Nurturing, Love.

Exemplars

In order of apparance in the work…

Social Venues

  • Google
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
Chatbots
  • Siri of Apple
  • Cortana of Microsoft
  • Now of Google
  • Echo of Amazon
    (sic) Alexa
Manufacturing
  • Google
  • Microsoft
  • HTC
  • Samsung

Aspects

  • Infinite Computing
  • Artificial Super-Intelligence
  • Sensors & Networks
  • Robotics
  • 3D Printing
  • Virtual and Augmented Reality:

Pantheon

Jay Abraham
Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
Website.
Twitter.
Paul Adams
LinkedIn.
ex-Google, ex-Facebook, “head” of product, Intercom.
Grouped; Publisher?; 2011; ASIN:0321804112: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Alex Bogusky
Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
The 9-Inch Diet; Publisher; 2009; ASIN:157687320X: Kindle: $20?
tl;dr → Burger King is bad.
Website.
Twitter.
Peter Diamandis
Medium
Cindy Gallop
Medium
Honorific: is brash.
Make Love Not Porn, a talk, at Theater, Entertainment, Distraction (TED), hosted on YouTube; WHEN? (these performances typically run ~20 min).
Website
Twitter.
Seth Godin
Medium.
Claimed: has popularized “permission marketing.”
Website.
Twitter.
Bob Hoffman
Medium
Scrivener, the Ad Contrarian, a blog <quote>who’s been “making marketers uncomfortable since 2013.</quote>
Website.
Blog.
Twitter.
Naomi Klein
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Honorific: an activist.
Claimed: branding is oppression.
No Logo; Publisher?; 2000; ASIN:000734077X: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Ray Kurzweil
Chief futurist, Google.
Website
Kalle Lasn
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Founder, Adbusters (magazine).
“Chief architect,” Occupy Wall Street Movement.
Claimed: consumerism is evil.
Culture Jam: America’s Suicidal Binge; Publisher?; WHEN? ASIN:B00DY4O5GE: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Gerd Leonhard
Medium.
Seer, booster.
Mary Meeker
LinkedIn
Staff, Partner title?, Kleiner Perkins, Caulfield & Byers (KPCB)
Claimed: publishes Internet Trends, serial slideware, annual.
Webpage.
Twitter.
Al Ries
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Claimed: “the father of positioning”
Al Reis, Laura Reis, The Fall of Advertising; self-published (ebook); 209; ASIN:B000FC11PG: Kindle: $20?
Website, Al & Laura Ries, father and daughter marketing strategists
Laura Ries
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Al Reis, Laura Reis; The Fall of Advertising; ibidem.
Twitter.
Website, ibidem.
Luke Sullivan
Medium
Hey Whipple, Squeeze This; Publisher?; WHEN? ASIN:B01AVKWLCS: Kindle: $20?; Website Twitter.
tl;dr → <quote>a diatribe</quote>.
Matt Schlicht
Medium
Monte Wilson
LinkedIn.
ex-Adobe, Oracle, EMC.
Some Talk; At Some Venue, hosted On YouTube; 2016.
tl;dr → on the scientism of “sided” brain thinking.

Referenced

Previously

In His Blog

Also

Also His Blog

The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI | Rodney Brooks

Rodney Brooks; The Seven Deadly Sins of Predicting the Future of AI; Series, Future of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence; In His Blog; 2017-09-07.

tl;dr → Calm down. Get You’ve had your fun, now get back to work. Keep your day job.
and → <quote>The claims are ludicrous.</quote>
and → <quote>Predicting the future is really hard, especially ahead of time.</quote>

Construction

Narratives

A. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
B. The Singularity.
C. Misaligned Values.
D. Really evil horrible nasty human-destroying Artificially Intelligent entities.

Listicle
  1. [A,B,C,D] Over and under estimating
  2. [B,C,D] Imagining Magic
  3. [A,B,C] Performance versus competence
  4. [A,B] Suitcase words
  5. [A,B,B,B,…] Exponentials
  6. [C,D] Hollywood scenarios
  7. [B,C,D] SPEED OF Deployment

Mentions

  • The corpus is surveyed.
  • People with some serious-sounding titles are being very silly.

References

Which are largely negative exemplars of the Clarity of Thinking to which he strives…

Previously

In His Blog, as the series, Future of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence

Zero Hours | Tim Maughan

Tim Maughan; Zero Hours; In His Blog, syndicated on Medium; 2013-09-19.
Tim Maughan, scrivener; opera.

tl;dr → this is a work of fiction: the working day of 19 year old Nicki, a zero hours retail contractor.

Source

10 Future Londoners for the year 2023. Future Londoners, background; Nesta
Teaser: A series of imaginary characters created to explore the possibilities of urban life in the future.

AuthorsDevelopers

Mentions

Personas

Related

The Carefully Sculpted Reality of the Meeker Trends Report | Tom Webster (Edison Research)

Tom Webster (Edison Research); The Carefully Sculpted Reality of the Meeker Trends Report; In Some Blog hosted on Medium; 2017-06-24.
Tom Webster is VP of Strategy, Edison Research.

tl;dr → bloggist discovers that Mary Meeker (for KPCB) is talking up their book. Welcome grasshoper, you have awoke!

Quotes

  • <quote>But take the report for what it is — an extremely effective piece of content marketing, promoting the trends and interests of a company selectively invested in the space. Nothing sinister here — I fully believe KPCB saw their portfolio companies as a part of future trends first, not that they are trying to engineer these trends after the fact.</quote>

Referenced

A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition | Szpunar, Spreng, Schachter

Szpunar, Spreng, Schachter; A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition; In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS); 2014-09-11; 8 pages; landing., pubmed.

Authors

Abstract

Prospection—the ability to represent what might happen in the future—is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior.

In 10 Years, Your iPhone Won’t Be a Phone Anymore | WSJ

In 10 Years, Your iPhone Won’t Be a Phone Anymore; Christopher Mims; In The Wall Street Journal (WSJ); 2017-06-25.
Teaser: Siri will be the conductor of a suite of devices, all tracking your interactions and anticipating your next moves

tl;dr → <gee-whiz!>Apple. Apple.  Apple.</gee-whiz!>

Mentions

  • 2027
  • Apple
  • Siri
  • iPhone
  • foldable phones
  • body area network
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • iOS11
  • Tim Cook, CEO, Apple
  • Acquisitions
    • Lattice Data
    • Turi
    • Perceptio
    • Primesense
    • Metaio.
  • HoloLense, Microsoft
  • Products
    • HealthKit
    • CarPlay
    • Apple Pay
    • GymKit, with StairMaster
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • flying car

Quotes

  • Ryan Walsh
    • newbie partner Floodgate (venture capital)
    • ex-Apple, product management for media, who from 2014 to 2016.
  • Jonathan Badeen, co-founder and chief strategy officer, Tinder

Quotes

  • <quote>Trying to predict where technology will be in a decade may be a fool’s errand, but how often do we get to tie up so many emerging trends in a neat package?</quote>
  • <quote>All these technologies—interfacing with our smart homes, smart cars, even smart cities—will constitute not just a new way to interact with computers but a new way of life. And of course, worrisome levels of privacy invasion.</quote>
  • <quote>By 2027, Apple and its competitors will also have cemented a world of tradeoffs: If you want your life enhanced by AI and all the rest of this tech, you’re going to have to submit to constant surveillance—by your devices or, in many cases, by the tech giants themselves. Apple’s bet is that you will trust it to do this: The company’s privacy stance is that it isn’t going to look at or share your data, and it will be encrypted so others can’t look at it, either.</quote>

Global Megatrends 2017 Update | Hewlett-Packard

Global Megatrends 2017 Update; Andrew Bolwell (Hewlett-Packard); On Slideshare; 2017-01-04; 168 slides ← hpmegatrendspres2017

tl;dr → 4 trends; all are the same as last year (2016, published 3 months prior)
  1. Rapid Urbanization
  2. Changing Demographics
  3. Hyper Globalization
  4. Accelerated Innovation

Global Megatrends: Shaping Our Future; Andrew Bolwell (Hewlett-Packard); On Slideshare; 2016-10-11; 111 slides ← megatrendspres

Andrew Bolwell is (some various combination of) Senior Executive│Business Innovation│Entrepreneurship│Global Business Development│Strategic Vision│Product Ideation, Hewlett-Packard.

Promotions

On Virtual Economies | Edward Castronova

Edward Castronova
is Associate Professor of Economics at California State University, Fullerton, USA.Author’s homepage

On Virtual Economies

by Edward Castronova

Abstract:

Currently, several million people have accounts in massively multiplayer online games. The population of virtual worlds has grown rapidly since 1996; significantly, each world also seems to grow its own economy, with production, assets and trade with Earth economies. This paper explores two questions about these developments. First, will these economies grow in importance? Second, if they do grow, how will that affect real-world economies and governments? To shed light on the first question, the paper presents a simple choice model of the demand for game time. The model reveals a certain puzzle about puzzles and games: in the demand for these kinds of interactive entertainment goods, people reveal that they are willing to pay money to be constrained. Still, the nature of games as a produced good suggests that technological advances, and heavy competition, will drive the future development of virtual worlds. If virtual worlds do become a large part of the daily life of humans, their development may have an impact on the macroeconomies of Earth. It will also raise certain constitutional issues, since it is not clear, today, exactly who has jurisdiction over these new economies.


<ahem>To claim that there is a problematic at work here in the juristictional supervision of these online entertainment services is specious, at best; and at least, willfully ignorant.</ahem>  Who owns the computers upon which they operate, and to whom is payment made to allow participation thereon?  These, at least, are the subjects of jurisdictional supervision.

References

  1. Au, Wagner James (2002), “Playing Games With Free Speech,” Technology and Business, salon.com, May 6.
  2. Bartle, Richard. Designing Virtual Worlds. Indianapolis: New Riders, 2003.
  3. Becker, David (2002), “Game Exchange Suit Goes to Court,” CNET News.com, February 7.
  4. Borges, Jorge Luis (1962), “The Lottery in Babylon,” translated by John M. Fein, in Borges, Labyrinths: Selected Stories and Other Writings, New York: New Directions Publishing.
  5. Castronova, Edward (2001a), “Virtual Worlds: A First-Hand Account of Market and Society on the Cyberian Frontier,” CESifo Working Paper No. 618, December.
  6. _______ (2001b), “Achievement Bias in the Evolution of Preferences,” Gruter Institute Working Papers on Law, Economics, and Evolutionary Biology, Volume 2.
  7. Dibbell, Julian. My Tiny Life: Crime and Passion in a Virtual World. New York: Henry Holt, 1999.
  8. Easterlin, Richard A. (2001), “Income and Happiness: Towards a Unified Theory,” Economic Journal, 111, 465-484.
  9. Eco, Umberto (1989), Foucault’s Pendulum, translated by William Weaver, New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
  10. Engwall, Lars (1994), “Bridge, Poker, and Banking,” in Donald E. Fair and Robert Raymond, eds., The Competitiveness of Financial Institutions and Centres in Europe, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 227-39.
  11. Johnson, Steven (2002), “Wild Things,” Wired, March.
  12. Kaplan, Carl S. (2001), “Florida Community Can’t Shut Down ‘Voyeur Dorm,’” New York Times, October 5.
  13. Kurzweil, Ray (1999), The Age of Spiritual Machines, New York: Penguin Books.
  14. Lastowka, F. Greg and Dan Hunter (2004), “The Laws of Virtual Worlds,” forthcoming in California Law Review.
  15. Liebowitz, S.J. and Stephen Margolis (1994), “Network Externality: An Uncommon Tragedy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(2), 133-150.
  16. MacDonald, Glenn M. (1988), “The Economics of Rising Stars,” American Economic Review, 78(1), 155-66.
  17. Metrick, Andrew (1995), “A Natural Experiment in ‘Jeopardy!” American Economic Review, 85(1), 240-53.
  18. Mazalov, Vladimir V., Svetlana V. Panova, and Mojca Piskuric (1999), “Two-Person Bilateral Many-Rounds Poker,” Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 49(2), 267-82.
  19. Mnookin, Jennifer L. “Virtual(ly) Law: The Emergence of Law in an On-Line Community.” In Peter Ludlow (ed.) Crypto Anarchy, Cyberstates, and Pirate Utopias. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001: 245-302.
  20. Nash, John F. and Shapley, L. S. (1997), “A Simple Three-Person Poker Game,” in Mary Ann Dimand and Robert W. Dimand, eds., The Foundations of Game Theory, Volume II, Cheltenham: Elgar Reference Collection, 13-24.
  21. Nichols, Mark W. (1998), “The Impact of Deregulation on Casino Win in Atlantic City,” Review of Industrial Organization, 13(6), 713-26.
  22. Page, Scott E. (1998), “Let’s Make A Deal,” Economics Letters 61(2), 175-80.
  23. Shubik, Martin (1999), “The ‘Bridge Game’ Economy: An Example of Indivisibilities,” in Martin Shubik, ed., The Selected Essays of Martin Shubik, Cheltenham: Elgar, 184-187.
  24. Simon, Herbert A., and Jonathan Schaeffer (1992), “The Game of Chess,” in Robert J. Aumann and Sergiu Hart, eds., Handbook of Game Theory With Economic Applications, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1-17.

The Megashifts in ‘Technology vs. Humanity’ | Gerd Leonhard

Megashifts, of Gerd Leonhard
Teaser: Riffing on a key theme from Futurist Gerd’s 2016 book on Technology vs Humanity

tl;dr → This is a promotional site for the book, still in the promotional cycle

Gerd Leonhard; Technology vs. Humanity: The Coming Clash Between Man and Machine; Fast Future Publishing; 2016-09-06; 184 pages; Amazon:0993295827; Kindle: $10, paper: $25+SHT; previously filled.

Framework

contra…
  • Leonhard’s teleological transformation framework themed on noun forms of verbs (“-tion”) in Technology versus Humanity
  • Kevin Kelly’s teleological transformation framework themed on gerunds
    The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future; required for PDV-91; separately noted..
  • Sheryl Connelly’s Metagrends,
    10 Trends That Could Change World; adtechevents; Sheryl Connelly (Ford Motor Company); On YouTube; 2013-11-13; 46:52 (Sheryl starts at 8:00); separately filled; separately noted.
  • Faith Popcorn’s Megatrends
    from back in the day; from back in the previous century.

Listicle

The “megatrends” “megashifts”

  1. Digitization
  2. Mobilization
  3. Screenification
  4. Disintermediation
  5. Transformation
  6. Intelligization
  7. Automation
  8. Virtualization
  9. Anticipation
  10. Robotization

Followup: Explaniing Key Themes, 2016-09-04.

Outreach

About

Related

Sites

Feelings of Discontent and the Promise of Middle Range Theory for STS | Geels

Frank W. Geels; Feelings of Discontent and the Promise of Middle Range Theory for Science & Technology Studies (STS); In Science, Technology & Human Values, Volume 32, Issue 6; 2007-11-01; DOI:10.1177/016224390303597; 25 pages; paywall
Teaser: Examples from Technology Dynamics

Abstract

This article critically discusses the state of STS, expressing feelings of discontent regarding four aspects: policy relevance, conceptual language, too much focus on complexity, theoretical styles. Middle range theory is proposed as an alternative, promising avenue. Middle range theories focus on delimited topics, make explicit efforts to combine concepts, and search for abstracted patterns and explanatory mechanisms. The article presents achievements in that direction for technology dynamics, particularly with regard to the role of expectations, niche theory and radical innovation, and the multi-level perspective on sociotechnical transitions.

Mentions

  • Middle Range Theory (MRT)
  • Science & Techology Studies (STS)
  • Merton introduced the notion of MRT in sociology in the three editions
    of Social Theory and Social Structure (1949, 1957, 1968).
    e.g.
    Merton, R.K. 1948. Discussion of Parsons’ `The position of sociological theory ‘. American Sociological Review 13(2): 164-168. Google Scholar

Aside

At the paywall, it is unclear who wrote the article.  The paywall declares that it was Frank W. Geels, but provides an “author biography” for Casper Bruun Jensen.

Yup, it is Frank W. Geels. Yet…

Casper Bruun Jensen is
  • Associate professor at the Technologies in Practice group, IT University of Copenhagen.
  • Casper Bruun Jensen, Ontologies for Developing Things (Sense, 2010)
  • Casper Bruun Jensen, Brit Ross Winthereik, Monitoring Movements in Development (MIT, 2013).

References

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