Zero Hours | Tim Maughan

Tim Maughan; Zero Hours; In His Blog, syndicated on Medium; 2013-09-19.
Tim Maughan, scrivener; opera.

tl;dr → this is a work of fiction: the working day of 19 year old Nicki, a zero hours retail contractor.

Source

10 Future Londoners for the year 2023. Future Londoners, background; Nesta
Teaser: A series of imaginary characters created to explore the possibilities of urban life in the future.

AuthorsDevelopers

Mentions

Personas

Related

The Carefully Sculpted Reality of the Meeker Trends Report | Tom Webster (Edison Research)

Tom Webster (Edison Research); The Carefully Sculpted Reality of the Meeker Trends Report; In Some Blog hosted on Medium; 2017-06-24.
Tom Webster is VP of Strategy, Edison Research.

tl;dr → bloggist discovers that Mary Meeker (for KPCB) is talking up their book. Welcome grasshoper, you have awoke!

Quotes

  • <quote>But take the report for what it is — an extremely effective piece of content marketing, promoting the trends and interests of a company selectively invested in the space. Nothing sinister here — I fully believe KPCB saw their portfolio companies as a part of future trends first, not that they are trying to engineer these trends after the fact.</quote>

Referenced

A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition | Szpunar, Spreng, Schachter

Szpunar, Spreng, Schachter; A taxonomy of prospection: Introducing an organizational framework for future-oriented cognition; In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS); 2014-09-11; 8 pages; landing., pubmed.

Authors

Abstract

Prospection—the ability to represent what might happen in the future—is a broad concept that has been used to characterize a wide variety of future-oriented cognitions, including affective forecasting, prospective memory, temporal discounting, episodic simulation, and autobiographical planning. In this article, we propose a taxonomy of prospection to initiate the important and necessary process of teasing apart the various forms of future thinking that constitute the landscape of prospective cognition. The organizational framework that we propose delineates episodic and semantic forms of four modes of future thinking: simulation, prediction, intention, and planning. We show how this framework can be used to draw attention to the ways in which various modes of future thinking interact with one another, generate new questions about prospective cognition, and illuminate our understanding of disorders of future thinking. We conclude by considering basic cognitive processes that give rise to prospective cognitions, cognitive operations and emotional/motivational states relevant to future-oriented cognition, and the possible role of procedural or motor systems in future-oriented behavior.

In 10 Years, Your iPhone Won’t Be a Phone Anymore | WSJ

In 10 Years, Your iPhone Won’t Be a Phone Anymore; Christopher Mims; In The Wall Street Journal (WSJ); 2017-06-25.
Teaser: Siri will be the conductor of a suite of devices, all tracking your interactions and anticipating your next moves

tl;dr → <gee-whiz!>Apple. Apple.  Apple.</gee-whiz!>

Mentions

  • 2027
  • Apple
  • Siri
  • iPhone
  • foldable phones
  • body area network
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • iOS11
  • Tim Cook, CEO, Apple
  • Acquisitions
    • Lattice Data
    • Turi
    • Perceptio
    • Primesense
    • Metaio.
  • HoloLense, Microsoft
  • Products
    • HealthKit
    • CarPlay
    • Apple Pay
    • GymKit, with StairMaster
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • flying car

Quotes

  • Ryan Walsh
    • newbie partner Floodgate (venture capital)
    • ex-Apple, product management for media, who from 2014 to 2016.
  • Jonathan Badeen, co-founder and chief strategy officer, Tinder

Quotes

  • <quote>Trying to predict where technology will be in a decade may be a fool’s errand, but how often do we get to tie up so many emerging trends in a neat package?</quote>
  • <quote>All these technologies—interfacing with our smart homes, smart cars, even smart cities—will constitute not just a new way to interact with computers but a new way of life. And of course, worrisome levels of privacy invasion.</quote>
  • <quote>By 2027, Apple and its competitors will also have cemented a world of tradeoffs: If you want your life enhanced by AI and all the rest of this tech, you’re going to have to submit to constant surveillance—by your devices or, in many cases, by the tech giants themselves. Apple’s bet is that you will trust it to do this: The company’s privacy stance is that it isn’t going to look at or share your data, and it will be encrypted so others can’t look at it, either.</quote>

Global Megatrends 2017 Update | Hewlett-Packard

Global Megatrends 2017 Update; Andrew Bolwell (Hewlett-Packard); On Slideshare; 2017-01-04; 168 slides ← hpmegatrendspres2017

tl;dr → 4 trends; all are the same as last year (2016, published 3 months prior)
  1. Rapid Urbanization
  2. Changing Demographics
  3. Hyper Globalization
  4. Accelerated Innovation

Global Megatrends: Shaping Our Future; Andrew Bolwell (Hewlett-Packard); On Slideshare; 2016-10-11; 111 slides ← megatrendspres

Andrew Bolwell is (some various combination of) Senior Executive│Business Innovation│Entrepreneurship│Global Business Development│Strategic Vision│Product Ideation, Hewlett-Packard.

Promotions

On Virtual Economies | Edward Castronova

Edward Castronova
is Associate Professor of Economics at California State University, Fullerton, USA.Author’s homepage

On Virtual Economies

by Edward Castronova

Abstract:

Currently, several million people have accounts in massively multiplayer online games. The population of virtual worlds has grown rapidly since 1996; significantly, each world also seems to grow its own economy, with production, assets and trade with Earth economies. This paper explores two questions about these developments. First, will these economies grow in importance? Second, if they do grow, how will that affect real-world economies and governments? To shed light on the first question, the paper presents a simple choice model of the demand for game time. The model reveals a certain puzzle about puzzles and games: in the demand for these kinds of interactive entertainment goods, people reveal that they are willing to pay money to be constrained. Still, the nature of games as a produced good suggests that technological advances, and heavy competition, will drive the future development of virtual worlds. If virtual worlds do become a large part of the daily life of humans, their development may have an impact on the macroeconomies of Earth. It will also raise certain constitutional issues, since it is not clear, today, exactly who has jurisdiction over these new economies.


<ahem>To claim that there is a problematic at work here in the juristictional supervision of these online entertainment services is specious, at best; and at least, willfully ignorant.</ahem>  Who owns the computers upon which they operate, and to whom is payment made to allow participation thereon?  These, at least, are the subjects of jurisdictional supervision.

References

  1. Au, Wagner James (2002), “Playing Games With Free Speech,” Technology and Business, salon.com, May 6.
  2. Bartle, Richard. Designing Virtual Worlds. Indianapolis: New Riders, 2003.
  3. Becker, David (2002), “Game Exchange Suit Goes to Court,” CNET News.com, February 7.
  4. Borges, Jorge Luis (1962), “The Lottery in Babylon,” translated by John M. Fein, in Borges, Labyrinths: Selected Stories and Other Writings, New York: New Directions Publishing.
  5. Castronova, Edward (2001a), “Virtual Worlds: A First-Hand Account of Market and Society on the Cyberian Frontier,” CESifo Working Paper No. 618, December.
  6. _______ (2001b), “Achievement Bias in the Evolution of Preferences,” Gruter Institute Working Papers on Law, Economics, and Evolutionary Biology, Volume 2.
  7. Dibbell, Julian. My Tiny Life: Crime and Passion in a Virtual World. New York: Henry Holt, 1999.
  8. Easterlin, Richard A. (2001), “Income and Happiness: Towards a Unified Theory,” Economic Journal, 111, 465-484.
  9. Eco, Umberto (1989), Foucault’s Pendulum, translated by William Weaver, New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
  10. Engwall, Lars (1994), “Bridge, Poker, and Banking,” in Donald E. Fair and Robert Raymond, eds., The Competitiveness of Financial Institutions and Centres in Europe, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 227-39.
  11. Johnson, Steven (2002), “Wild Things,” Wired, March.
  12. Kaplan, Carl S. (2001), “Florida Community Can’t Shut Down ‘Voyeur Dorm,’” New York Times, October 5.
  13. Kurzweil, Ray (1999), The Age of Spiritual Machines, New York: Penguin Books.
  14. Lastowka, F. Greg and Dan Hunter (2004), “The Laws of Virtual Worlds,” forthcoming in California Law Review.
  15. Liebowitz, S.J. and Stephen Margolis (1994), “Network Externality: An Uncommon Tragedy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 8(2), 133-150.
  16. MacDonald, Glenn M. (1988), “The Economics of Rising Stars,” American Economic Review, 78(1), 155-66.
  17. Metrick, Andrew (1995), “A Natural Experiment in ‘Jeopardy!” American Economic Review, 85(1), 240-53.
  18. Mazalov, Vladimir V., Svetlana V. Panova, and Mojca Piskuric (1999), “Two-Person Bilateral Many-Rounds Poker,” Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 49(2), 267-82.
  19. Mnookin, Jennifer L. “Virtual(ly) Law: The Emergence of Law in an On-Line Community.” In Peter Ludlow (ed.) Crypto Anarchy, Cyberstates, and Pirate Utopias. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001: 245-302.
  20. Nash, John F. and Shapley, L. S. (1997), “A Simple Three-Person Poker Game,” in Mary Ann Dimand and Robert W. Dimand, eds., The Foundations of Game Theory, Volume II, Cheltenham: Elgar Reference Collection, 13-24.
  21. Nichols, Mark W. (1998), “The Impact of Deregulation on Casino Win in Atlantic City,” Review of Industrial Organization, 13(6), 713-26.
  22. Page, Scott E. (1998), “Let’s Make A Deal,” Economics Letters 61(2), 175-80.
  23. Shubik, Martin (1999), “The ‘Bridge Game’ Economy: An Example of Indivisibilities,” in Martin Shubik, ed., The Selected Essays of Martin Shubik, Cheltenham: Elgar, 184-187.
  24. Simon, Herbert A., and Jonathan Schaeffer (1992), “The Game of Chess,” in Robert J. Aumann and Sergiu Hart, eds., Handbook of Game Theory With Economic Applications, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1-17.

The Megashifts in ‘Technology vs. Humanity’ | Gerd Leonhard

Megashifts, of Gerd Leonhard
Teaser: Riffing on a key theme from Futurist Gerd’s 2016 book on Technology vs Humanity

tl;dr → This is a promotional site for the book, still in the promotional cycle

Gerd Leonhard; Technology vs. Humanity: The Coming Clash Between Man and Machine; Fast Future Publishing; 2016-09-06; 184 pages; Amazon:0993295827; Kindle: $10, paper: $25+SHT; previously filled.

Framework

contra…
  • Leonhard’s teleological transformation framework themed on noun forms of verbs (“-tion”) in Technology versus Humanity
  • Kevin Kelly’s teleological transformation framework themed on gerunds
    The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future; required for PDV-91; separately noted..
  • Sheryl Connelly’s Metagrends,
    10 Trends That Could Change World; adtechevents; Sheryl Connelly (Ford Motor Company); On YouTube; 2013-11-13; 46:52 (Sheryl starts at 8:00); separately filled; separately noted.
  • Faith Popcorn’s Megatrends
    from back in the day; from back in the previous century.

Listicle

The “megatrends” “megashifts”

  1. Digitization
  2. Mobilization
  3. Screenification
  4. Disintermediation
  5. Transformation
  6. Intelligization
  7. Automation
  8. Virtualization
  9. Anticipation
  10. Robotization

Followup: Explaniing Key Themes, 2016-09-04.

Outreach

About

Related

Sites

Feelings of Discontent and the Promise of Middle Range Theory for STS | Geels

Frank W. Geels; Feelings of Discontent and the Promise of Middle Range Theory for Science & Technology Studies (STS); In Science, Technology & Human Values, Volume 32, Issue 6; 2007-11-01; DOI:10.1177/016224390303597; 25 pages; paywall
Teaser: Examples from Technology Dynamics

Abstract

This article critically discusses the state of STS, expressing feelings of discontent regarding four aspects: policy relevance, conceptual language, too much focus on complexity, theoretical styles. Middle range theory is proposed as an alternative, promising avenue. Middle range theories focus on delimited topics, make explicit efforts to combine concepts, and search for abstracted patterns and explanatory mechanisms. The article presents achievements in that direction for technology dynamics, particularly with regard to the role of expectations, niche theory and radical innovation, and the multi-level perspective on sociotechnical transitions.

Mentions

  • Middle Range Theory (MRT)
  • Science & Techology Studies (STS)
  • Merton introduced the notion of MRT in sociology in the three editions
    of Social Theory and Social Structure (1949, 1957, 1968).
    e.g.
    Merton, R.K. 1948. Discussion of Parsons’ `The position of sociological theory ‘. American Sociological Review 13(2): 164-168. Google Scholar

Aside

At the paywall, it is unclear who wrote the article.  The paywall declares that it was Frank W. Geels, but provides an “author biography” for Casper Bruun Jensen.

Yup, it is Frank W. Geels. Yet…

Casper Bruun Jensen is
  • Associate professor at the Technologies in Practice group, IT University of Copenhagen.
  • Casper Bruun Jensen, Ontologies for Developing Things (Sense, 2010)
  • Casper Bruun Jensen, Brit Ross Winthereik, Monitoring Movements in Development (MIT, 2013).

References

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The Sociology of Expectations in Science and Technology | Borup, Brown, Konrad, van Lente

Mads Borup, Nik Brown, Kornelia Konrad, Harro Van Lente; The Sociology of Expectations in Science and Technology; an Editorial; In Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, Volume 18, Numbers 3/4, 285 –298, July – September, 2006-07; 14 pages; DOI:10.1080/09537320600777002; paywall; copy

Relevance

Claim: Moore’s law is a self-fulfilling prophecy; by stating the law and the “tick tock” roadmap, the vision is driven to successful eventuality.

Mentions

  • “The Hype Cycle,” The Gartner Group
    The metaphoric device of an underdamped oscillator applied to social processes.
    Hype Cycle, In Jimi Wales’ Wiki.

Concept

<quote>By definition, innovation in contemporary science and technology is an intensely future-oriented business with an emphasis on the creation of new opportunities and capabilities. Novel technologies and fundamental changes in scientific principle do not substantively pre-exist themselves, except and only in terms of the imaginings, expectations and visions that have shaped their potential. As such, future-oriented abstractions are among the most important objects of enquiry for scholars and analysts of innovation. Such expectations can be seen to be fundamentally ‘generative’, they guide activities, provide structure and legitimation, attract interest and foster investment. They give definition to roles, clarify duties, offer some shared shape of what to expect and how to prepare for opportunities and risks. Visions drive technical and scientific activity, warranting the production of measurements, calculations, material tests, pilot projects and models. As such, very little in innovation can work in isolation from a highly dynamic and variegated body of future-oriented understandings about the future.</quote>

<ahem>future-oriented understandings about the future.</ahem>

References

There are 49 bibliographic references.

  1. H. van Lente, Promising technology. The dynamics of expectations in technological developments, PhD Thesis, University of Twente, Enschede, 1993.
  2. M. Michael, Futures of the present: from performativity to prehension, in: N. Brown, B. Rappert & A. Webster (Eds) Contested Futures: A Sociology of Prospective Techno-Science (Aldershot, UK, Ashgate, 2000).
  3. M. Sturken, D. Thomas & S. J. Ball-Rokeach (Eds), Technological Visions. The Hopes and Fears that Shape New Technologies (Philadelphia, PA, Temple University Press, 2004).
  4. N. Brown, B. Rappert & A. Webster (Eds), Contested Futures: A Sociology of Prospective Techno-Science (Aldershot, UK, Ashgate, 2000).
  5. W. Bijker & J. Law (Eds), Shaping Technology/Building Society (Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 1992); A. Pickering (Ed.), Science as Practice and Culture (Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press, 1992); B. Latour, Science in Action: How to Follow Scientists and Engineers through Society (Milton Keynes, UK, Open University Press, 1987); J. Law (Ed.), A Sociology of Monsters—Essays on Power, Techno- logy and Domination (London, Routledge, 1991).
  6. H. van Lente & A. Rip, Expectations in technological developments: an example of prospective structures to be filled by agency, in: C. Disco & B. van der Meulen (Eds), Getting New Technologies Together. Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order (Berlin, De Gruyter, 1998).
  7. J. Guice, Designing the future: the culture of new trends in science and technology, Research Policy, 28, 1999, pp. 81– 98.
  8. P. Martin, Great expectations: the construction of markets, products and user needs during the early development of gene therapy in the USA, in: R. Coombs, K. Green, A. Richards & V. Walsh (Eds), Technology and the Market: Demand, Users and Innovation (Cheltenham, UK, Edward Elgar, 2001); A. Hedgecoe & P. Martin, The drugs don’t work: expectations and the shaping of pharmacogenetics, Social Studies of Science, 33, 2003, pp. 327 –364.
  9. C. Selin, Time matters: temporal harmony and dissonance in nanotechnology networks, Time & Society, 15, 2006, pp. 121–139.
  10. H. Nowotny & U. Felt, After the Breakthrough—the Emergence of High-Temperature Superconductivity as a Research Field (Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 1997); M. Callon, Variety and irre- versibility in networks of technique conception and adoption, in: D. Foray & C. Freeman (Eds), Tech- nology and the Wealth of Nations—The Dynamics of Constructed Advantage (London, Pinter, 1993).
  11. Van Lente, op. cit., Ref. 1; Van Lente & Rip, op. cit., Ref. 6; J. Deuten & A. Rip, Narrative infrastructure in product creation processes, Organization, 7, 2000, pp. 69– 63; K. Konrad, Pra ̈gende Erwartungen— Szenarien als Schrittmacher der Technikentwicklung (Berlin, Edition Sigma, 2004).Editorial 297
  12. N. Brown & M. Michael, A sociology of expectations: retrospecting prospects and prospecting retro- spects, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 15, 2003, pp. 3–18.
  13. M. Dierkes, U. Hoffman & L. Maez, Leitbild und Technik: Zur Entstehung und Steuerung technischer Innovationen (Berlin, Edition Sigma, 1992); W. Rammert, Die kulturelle Orientierung der technischen Entwicklung. Eine technikgenetische Perspektive, in: D. Siefkes, P. Eulenho ̈fer, H. Stach & K. Sta ̈dtler, (Eds), Sozialgeschichte der Informatik. Soziale Praktiken und Orientierungen (Wiesbaden, Deutscher Universita ̈ts Verlag, 1998); H. D. Hellige, Technikleitbilder auf dem Pru ̈fstand: Leitbild-Assessment aus Sicht der Informatik- und Computergeschichte (Berlin, Edition Sigma, 1996).
  14. For example, M. Akrich, The de-scription of technical objects, in: Bijker & Law, op. cit., Ref 5, pp. 205– 224; W. B. Carlson, Artifacts and frames of meaning: Thomas A. Edison, his managers, and the cultural construction of motion pictures, in shaping technology/building society, in: Bijker & Law, op. cit., Ref 5; J. Jelsma, Innovating for sustainability: involving users, politics and technology, Innovation, 16, 2003, pp. 103–116; N. Oudshoorn & T. Pinch, How Users Matter: The Co-construction of Users and Technol- ogy (Cambridge, MA, MIT Press, 2003).
  15. B. De Laat, Scripts for the future: using innovation studies to design foresight tools, in: Brown et al., op. cit., Ref. 4; FORMAKIN, Final Report of the Formakin Project (Foresight as a Tool for the Management of Knowledge Flows and Innovation), York etc.: Science and Technology Studies Unit, University of York, 2001. An EU-TSERP project led by A.Webster, L. Sanz-Mene ́ndez and B. van der Meulen.
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  17. Ibid.
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