Mobile 2.0 (Web 3.0) | Benedict Evans

Benedict (Ben) Evans (A16z); Mobile 2.0 (not Web 3.0); In His Blog; 2017-01-31 (one year ago).

tl;dr → A paean. “The mobile” is the Bee’s Knees!
and → The signal is given: a new S-Curve is commencing.
and → The unbunding / rebundling / unbundling / rebundling cycle, a metaphor of growth-cum-renewal.

Mentions

Scope

  • Amazon
    • They sell stuff, which is purchased by “the mobile” (demographic)
    • Alexa
    • Echo
  • Apple
    • AirPods
    • They make The Phones, which are “the mobile” (a totem of the demographic)
  • Facebook
    • is “the browser”
    • Instant Articles
  • Google
    • Accelerated Mobile Pages (AMP)
    • YouTube, is “the video”
  • Snapchat
    • <rly?>
    • Spectacles

Historiography

Web 1.0
1994, Netscape launched
Web 2.0
2004, Tim O’Reilly, broadband, Yahoo, Flickr, “the social”
Mobile 1.0
2007, the iPhone launch.
Web 3.0 Mobile 2.0
“The Web” is dead; the Wintel device & it’s browser is not relevant any more.
Ah Bullion Yoosers, On. Smart. Phones.
WiFi, The ‘Gs, 3 & 4, LTE, High-DPI screens, 100x GPUs, Sensors (cameras). Cameras

Unaccounted

Missing in the Analysis
  • How is it that The Telecoms will allow this?
    Whereas

    • The Phone is sold through their financing apparatus.
    • The Phone operates on spectrum owned by them.
    • The Phone engenders a billable event every month.
  • Are The Telecoms so inept that they cannot (re-)capture the consumer?
    • Constrained by The Regulation?
    • Mired in The Buraucracy?
    • The corporate DNA (as a metaphor for corporate culture) of Old Monopoly Ma Bell disallows new modes of thinking?
    • They are disinterested?
  • Maybe with 5G!

Free Association

  • Computers with eyes
  • Combining the camera with touch
  • Video (the sight, sound & motion)
  • <alert><cliche>Consuming content; Deeper engagement.<cliche></alert>
  • <quote>Video is the new HTML, or the new Flash.<quote>
  • Facebook, is “the browser.”
  • YouTube, is “the video.”
  • sides of the brain.
  • “unbundle” the phone.
  • a cluster of little devices that orbit the (smart) phone.
  • Alexa == Spectacles
    <quote>create a new, independent end-point for the cloud that they can own themselves.</quote>
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • multi-touch
  • machine learning
  • computer vision
  • voice recognition
  • WOW!

Parable

Business Decision-Making from Folkloric Reasoning on the The Mythological Paradigms

<quote>Alternatively, you can look at this as part of the way that tech swings from bundling to unbundling:

  • AOL bundled content
  • [T]he [W]eb unbundled AOL
  • Google bundled the web,
  • [A]pps unbundled properties from [T]he [B]rowser,
    but also bundled each site into a single icon,
  • and now these platforms form new bundles.

The pendulum will swing back the other way again, at some point. And in parallel, one could argue that Snapchat itself unbundled not ‘photos’ but fun and self-expression from Facebook.</quote>

Estimation

  • Something about app stores and social distribution.
    Except for China, which is different.
  • App distribution requires owning an app store
  • Content distribution is by the linkbait techniques

 

The AI Now Report: social/economic implications of near-future AI | Boing Boing

The AI Now Report: social/economic implications of near-future AI; Cory Doctorow; In Boing Boing; 2016-09 (one year ago, back before The Bad Times, back in the Obama Administration, back when The Science was a The Thing)

Original Sources

<unavailable>The AI Now Report; Information Law Institute, New York University (NYU); 2016-07.</unavailable>

Mentions

  • National Economic Council
  • Symposium at Information Law Institute, New York University (NYU), 2016-07.
  • Artificial Intelligence Now (AI Now)

Previously

In Boing Boing

Partnership on AI

Partnership on AI
Uses Responsive Web Design (RWD) so it only “works” on a handset form factor is “mobile first” [scrape-scroll down, which is non-obvious in the officework environment]

Promoters

Line 1
  • Amazon
  • Apple
Line 2
  • DeepMind, of Google
  • Google, of Alphabet (GOOG)
Line 3
  • Facebook
  • IBM
  • Microsoft

Separately noted.

Blockchains Explained: A Primer on Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, and Ethereum | Atomic

Jaime Lightfoot (Atomic); Blockchains Explained: A Primer on Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, and Ethereum; In Their Blog; 2017-09-06.

tl;dr → Bitcoin, Ethereum; Blockchain.

Mentions

  • Bitcoin operations cost “hundreds” of MWh to keep lit.
    <quote?From an environmental standpoint, Bitcoin consumes hundreds of megawatt-hours of electricity per day for mining.</quote>

Argot

The Suitcase Words
  • 51% Attack
  • Alice
  • banks
  • Bitcoin
  • blockchain,
    <quote>Bitcoin’s blockchain was implemented started in [circa] 2009.</quote>
  • blockchain,
    <quote>The blockchain is a file that is copied and distributed to nodes </quote>
  • blockchain ledger
  • blockchain network
  • blocks,
    bunch of blocks,
    a bunch of blocks of transactions,
    a bunch of blocks of transactions that contain a timestamp,
    a bunch of blocks of transactions that contain a timestamp and a pointer to the previous block,
    a bunch of blocks of transactions that contain a timestamp and a pointer to the previous block (such that they form a chain).
  • Bob
  • bookkeeping
  • “certain requirements”
  • conseusns
  • cryptocurrencies
  • Cryptocurrency,
    Cryptocurrencies.
  • cryptocurrency
  • decentralized apps (Dapps)
  • Department of Treasury
  • difficulty
  • distributed,
    distributed blockchain
  • distributed,
    distributed instead of centralized.
  • double-spending
  • Ethash
  • Ethereum
  • Ethereum Dapps
  • Federal Reserve
  • “hard forks”
  • Hashcash
  • laws,
    enforce laws.
  • ledger,
    master ledger,
    master ledger of transactions.
  • Litecoin
  • longest chain,
    “longest chain” rule
  • <quote>A blockchain can be described as a distributed database.</quote> … a very slow one with very low capacity.
  • <quote>Ethereum blocks are created roughly every 17 seconds.</quote>
  • <quote>I heard that Bitcoin is used to buy drugs. Well, yes.</quote>
  • <quote>In Ethereum, confirmation takes 12 blocks, or roughly three minutes.</quote>
  • master record
  • middlemen
  • node,
    <quote>A node is a computer that is connected to the blockchain network.</quote>
  • nonce
  • Proof of Stake (PoS)
  • Proof of Work (PoW)
  • Ripple
  • Serpent
  • “smart contracts,”
    smart contracts
  • Solidity
  • stolen,
    $50 megabucks were stolen.
  • trades,
    drug trades,
    illegal drug trades.
  • trust,
  • trust in intemediaries.
  • trustless
  • Turing complete
  • US Dollars (USD)
  • “wallet,”
    wallet.

Referenced

In order of appearance in the work…

The promise of managing identity on the blockchain | TechCrunch

The promise of managing identity on the blockchain; ; In TechCrunch; 2017-09-10.

tl;dr → Yes, no, maybe so. Equifax. ForgeRock, Okta. Ping Identity.

Mentions

  • only when practiced in its purist form.

Argot

The Suitcase Words
  • Identity Management (IDM)
  • public blockchain
  • public permissionless blockchain
  • distributed ledger technology (Distributed Ledger Technology)
  • distributed nodes
  • attack surface
  • Vista Equity Partners bought Ping Idenitty for $680M in 2016.
    Vista Equity Partners, private equity firm
  • LDAP (the “old way”)

Quoted

  • Jerry Cuomo, Fellow and VP of blockchain technologies, IBM.
  • Steve Wilson, staff, Constellation Research.
  • Eve Maler, staff, ForgeRock.
  • Charles Race, president of worldwide field operations, Okta.
  • Andre Durand, CEO, Ping Identity
  • Ian Glazer, an expert.

Referenced

Nothing. It recirculates.

Previously

In TechCrunch

Teaching A.I. Systems to Behave Themselves | NYT

Teaching A.I. Systems to Behave Themselves; Cade Metz; In The New York Times (NYT); 2017-08-13.

tl;dr → the risks of A.I.; we’re all going to die.

Mentions

  • deep neural networks
  • reinforcement learning
    like “gamification,” but for algorithms.
  • OpenAI
    • funded by Elon Musk
    • San Francisco
    • Dario Amodei, staff
  • Coast Runners
    • a video game
    • is old
    • boat-racing video game
  • DeepMind
  • Grand Theft Auto
    • a video game

Claims

  • learning algoritms are powerful
    surprising examples of achievements are cited.
  • learning algorithms are brittle and thus easily fooled
    trivial examples of mistakes aer cited.

Where

Organizations

  • Facebook
  • Google
  • Stanford University
  • University of California, Berkeley

Geography

  • San Francisco
  • London

<recall>A data scientist is a statistician who works from offices located in San Francisco, on a Macintosh computer.</quote>

Who

  • Dario Amodei, staff, OpenAI
  • Paul Christiano, staff, OpenAI
  • Jeff Dean, staff, Google
  • Ian Goodfellow, staff, Google
  • Dylan Hadfield-Menell, University of California, Berkeley (UCB).
  • Geoffrey Irving
  • Shane Legg, staff, DeepMind, of Google
  • Elon Musk
    • chief executive, Tesla
    • many other titles, roles & accolades
    • <quote>pundit, philosopher and technologist</quote>, such an accolade occurs mid-article.
      • the man, the legend, does everything.
      • starts many, finishes little.
      • punter.

Referenced

<quote>Mr. Hadfield-Menell and others at U.C. Berkeley recently published a paper</quote>, which was not cited.
Something about <quote>A machine will seek to preserve its off switch, they showed, if it is specifically designed to be uncertain about its reward function.</quote>
Apparently there was math in the output of Hadfield-Menell et al..

Previously

In The New York Times (NYT)…

In Wired

Blockstack announces $25 million fund to rebuild the internet for a blockchain world | VentureBeat

Blockstack announces $25 million fund to rebuild the internet for a blockchain world;; In VentureBeat; 2017-08-16.

tl;dr → press release announces $25 million <snide>their success is assured</snide>

Mentions

Funding

Funders

Current
Previous
  • Union Square Ventures (USV)
  • Lux Capital
  • Digital Currency Group

Accomplishments

  • Has registered 73,000 domains in their book
  • Has not yet announced the start date of its token sale.

Promotions

History

  • 2013 → founded (incorporated?, IP filings datestamped as?)
  • 2014 → development

The Actually Distributed Web | Doc Searls, Linux Journal

The Actually Distributed Web; Doc Searls; In His Blog, at Linux Journal; 2017-08-08.

tl;dr → ICO IPFS FTW!

Mentions

Theory

Of Marshall McLuhan, contra Harold Innis.

The Tetrad of Media Effects
  • “technology” is media, indeed “everything” is media.
  • the introduction of new media causes change in the millieu.
  • the new medium, four effects as a 2×2 combinator.
Axes
  • Ground
  • Figure
Interrogatories
  • What is enhanced?
  • What is obsoleted?
  • What is recovered (from obsolescence)
  • What is reversed (transformed), at the limit, any limit?

The last is very high concept: as in <quote ref=”there“>Acoustic radio flips into audio-visual TV.<quote>.
Pretty sure that the FCC doesn’t see it that way; nor does the NCEES; but this is media theory so it’s all compos mentis.

Device

Application

Analysis attributable to the author, Doc Searls.

Crypto Currencies
  • Enhance → exchange.
  • Retrieve → the bazaar.
  • Obsolesce → fiat currency.
  • Reverse → mutual unintelligibility, no exchange
    <metaphorical>isolated islands, walled gardens</metaphorical>).
Distributed Ledgers
  • Enhance → peer-to-peer.
  • Retrieve → individual agency.
  • Obsolesce → platform dominance.
  • Reverse → into one-to-one
    <refine>into peer-to-peer?</refine>.
Criticism

Via Why. The Web, of HTTP, cannot (or has not) <quote>

  • HTTP is inefficient and inexpensive…with video delivery, a P2P approach could save 60% in bandwidth costs <claime/d>.
  • Humanity’s history is deleted daily…IPFS provides historic versioning (like git) and makes it simple to set up resilient networks for mirroring of data.
  • The web’s centralization limits opportunity…IPFS remains true to the original vision of the open and flat web, but delivers the technology which makes that vision a reality.
  • Our apps are addicted to the backbone…IPFS powers the creation of diversely resilient networks which enable persistent availability with or without Internet backbone connectivity.
Remediation

Via How. The IPFS presents a (non-POSIX, yet POSIX-similar) hierarchical filesystem metaphor as a unifying artifice, wherein <quote>:

  • Each file and all of the blocks within it are given a unique fingerprint called a cryptographic hash.
  • IPFS removes duplications across the network and tracks version history for every file. <responsive>Uniqueness in time and space.</responsive>
  • Each network node stores only content it is interested in and some indexing information that helps figure out who is storing what. <responsive>What if no network is interested for a brief period? Who shall suffer the little files, the lost blocks, the unloved & unwanted slabs?</responsive>
  • When looking up files, you’re asking the network to find nodes storing the content behind a unique hash.
  • Every file can be found by human-readable names using a decentralized naming system called IPNS.
    <responsive>Like The DNS?</responsive>

</quote>

Avatars, Talismans

<quote>feudal castles of what in Europe</quote>

Old World Order
  • AOL
  • CompuServe
  • BSD
  • Linux
  • UNIX
New World Order
  • Google Alphabet
  • Amazon
  • Facebook
  • Apple

GAFA → Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple.
No Microsoft? FAMA? GAMF? <sic>MAGA?</sic>

Promoters

Who

  • Juan Benet
    • founder, Protocol Labs
    • inventor credit, IPFS
    • juan@benet.ai, an SMTP address.
    • @JuanBenet, a Twitter address screen name?
  • Tim Berners-Lee, a priori.
  • Brad Burnham, Union Square Ventures.
  • Brendan Eich, Brave; hagiography.
  • Marshall McLuhan, a theorist; hagiography
  • Linus Torvalds, a priori.
  • Phil Windley, chair (emcee), Sovrin Foundation.

Referenced

Definitional

Thematic Wikis
Jimi Wales’ Wiki

Previously

In Linux Journal

Actualities

Spread

Chartistry


http://coinmarketcap.com/charts

A Response to Blockchains’ Critics: Issues of Scale, Transparency and Threats to Intermediaries | Video

A Response to Blockchains’ Critics: Issues of Scale, Transparency and Threats to Intermediaries; ; In Video Ads News; 2017-08-01.
tl;dr → blockchain will work. really. Lightning Network. AdLedger Consortium.

Mentions

  • Joseph Poon, Thaddeus Dryja; https is busted, The Bitcoin Lightning Network: Scalable Off-Chain Instant Payments, draft v0.5.9.2; a white paper; Lightning Network; 2016-01-14; 59 pages; separately filled.
  • private blockchains
  • something about streetlights (as a metaphor of transparency)
  • AdLedger Consortium
  • Spotify
    • is a distributor of intellectual property
    • has a recordation problem
    • has an attribution obligation towards licensors of its product.
    • has adversaries who hate them
    • acquired Mediachain Labs “recently”

The Magical Thinking

<rainbows-and-pickles!>
  • do away with intermediaries
  • render banks obsolete
  • capitalism
  • innovation
</rainbows-and-pickles!>

Exemplars

Authorities.
  • Goldman Sachs
  • Morgan Stanley
  • and others

These august houses full of white shoes and smart money are using block chains, you should too. Or at least support trading within their schemes.

Factoids

  • Bitcoin
    • 0.00167 t/s (one per 10 minutes)
  • Ethereum
    • smart transactions
    • 15 t/s
  • Visa
    • 45K q/s
  • Facebook
    • 1e9 MAU
  • Google
    • 35K q/s = 30×109 transactions/day, impressions
    • 150 q/s =13&times106 transactions/day, clicks
    • 1 q/s = that one guy sitting alone, in the dark, in his basement, conversions

Referenced

In rough order of appearance in the work.

IEEE Unveils ‘Generation AI: A Study Of Millennial Parents Of Generation Alpha Kids’


IEEE Unveils ‘Generation AI: A Study Of Millennial Parents Of Generation Alpha Kids’; press release; IEEE; 2017-06-29.

Teaser:
  • IEEE Examines How Artificial Intelligence (AI) will Impact the Lives of ‘Generation Alpha’ Children in the Future
  • Majority of Millennial parents would consider an AI tutor for their child, prefer AI — not their children — provide care in their golden years
  • From childcare to healthcare and pet adoption, Millennial parents see Artificial Intelligence technology enmeshed throughout the lives of their tech-infused offspring

Mentions

  • Millennial parents
  • Generation Alpha children
    • age 0→7.
    • Born in 2010 and through 2025

Definitions

Generation Alpha
  • Born in 2010 and through 2025
  • <quote>tech-infused demographic</quote>
    Therefore: they will love AI

Materials

Highlights

  • Parents are Less Worried if AI is Behind the Wheel
  • AI, Not Kids, Preferred by Millennial Parents for Care During Golden Years
  • AI Pets Put Real Ones in the Doghouse, While Some Families Welcome AI Nannies
  • AI and Parenting:  Emotional and Physical Health
  • AI Helping Gen Alpha Kids Learn Faster Than Their Parents; AI Tutors Seen as Attractive
  • Pervasiveness of World-Changing Technology Means Millennial Parents will Encourage Gen Alpha Kids to Study Engineering

Survey

  • N=600
  • Demographic
    • parents
    • ages 20 – 36 years-old
    • at least one child seven years old or under
  • Duration: 2017-06-13 → 2017-06-15.