Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030 | Michael Haupt

1Michael Haupt; Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030; In His Blog, centrally hosted on Medium; 2016-11-11.
Teaser: Grand ideas from 12 disruptive marketing thought leaders distilled into 6 marketing & advertising predictions for 2030.

tl;dr → What’s hot circa 2015: Interactive Voice Response, The Data Licentiate, The Universal Dossier, (Ever-more) Precise Targeting, Propensity Prediction

Predictions

  1. The End of Privacy Concerns
  2. The Transfer of Data Ownership
  3. The End of Broadcast Advertising
  4. The Rise of Personal ChatBots
  5. The Shift Toward Evolved Enterprises (more services, more persuasion)
  6. The Shift From Communicating to Predicting

Persons

  1. Jay Abraham
  2. Paul Adams
  3. Alex Bogusky
  4. Cindy Gallop
  5. Seth Godin
  6. Bob Hoffman
  7. Naomi Klein
  8. Kalle Lasn
  9. Mary Meeker
  10. Al Ries & Laura Ries
  11. Luke Sullivan
  12. Monte Wilson
Also
  • Peter Diamandis
  • Ray Kurzweil
  • Gerd Leonhard
  • Mat Schlicht

Mentions

  • A universal history approach.
    as technological megashifts
  • X.ai
    • Funding: $23M, Series B funding.
  • Additive Manufacturing
    his neologism for 3-dimensional Printing (3D Printing)
  • The consumer (the users) are the product, of the social venues.
  • Something about predictive analytics (propensity scoring) in content marketing
    but the concept is not developed.
  • Precision>target audiencesto timely circumstances</quote>

Forces

Understood as transitions current state to next state.

Concern Current State Next State
Focus Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) Creativity, Originality, Reciprocity, Empathy and Intuition (COREI)
World Rational, Logical, Predictable Random, Empatetic, Emotional
World View Mechanistic Ecological
Interactions Competition and Manipulation Collaboration and Problem Solving
Organizations Hierarchical Command & Control Circles, Swarms, Swirls
Fetish Efficiency, Cost Reduction, Speed, Profit Connection, Nurturing, Love.

Exemplars

In order of apparance in the work…

Social Venues

  • Google
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
Chatbots
  • Siri of Apple
  • Cortana of Microsoft
  • Now of Google
  • Echo of Amazon
    (sic) Alexa
Manufacturing
  • Google
  • Microsoft
  • HTC
  • Samsung

Aspects

  • Infinite Computing
  • Artificial Super-Intelligence
  • Sensors & Networks
  • Robotics
  • 3D Printing
  • Virtual and Augmented Reality:

Pantheon

Jay Abraham
Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
Website.
Twitter.
Paul Adams
LinkedIn.
ex-Google, ex-Facebook, “head” of product, Intercom.
Grouped; Publisher?; 2011; ASIN:0321804112: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Alex Bogusky
Jimi Wales’ Wiki.
The 9-Inch Diet; Publisher; 2009; ASIN:157687320X: Kindle: $20?
tl;dr → Burger King is bad.
Website.
Twitter.
Peter Diamandis
Medium
Cindy Gallop
Medium
Honorific: is brash.
Make Love Not Porn, a talk, at Theater, Entertainment, Distraction (TED), hosted on YouTube; WHEN? (these performances typically run ~20 min).
Website
Twitter.
Seth Godin
Medium.
Claimed: has popularized “permission marketing.”
Website.
Twitter.
Bob Hoffman
Medium
Scrivener, the Ad Contrarian, a blog <quote>who’s been “making marketers uncomfortable since 2013.</quote>
Website.
Blog.
Twitter.
Naomi Klein
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Honorific: an activist.
Claimed: branding is oppression.
No Logo; Publisher?; 2000; ASIN:000734077X: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Ray Kurzweil
Chief futurist, Google.
Website
Kalle Lasn
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Founder, Adbusters (magazine).
“Chief architect,” Occupy Wall Street Movement.
Claimed: consumerism is evil.
Culture Jam: America’s Suicidal Binge; Publisher?; WHEN? ASIN:B00DY4O5GE: Kindle: $20?
Website.
Twitter.
Gerd Leonhard
Medium.
Seer, booster.
Mary Meeker
LinkedIn
Staff, Partner title?, Kleiner Perkins, Caulfield & Byers (KPCB)
Claimed: publishes Internet Trends, serial slideware, annual.
Webpage.
Twitter.
Al Ries
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Claimed: “the father of positioning”
Al Reis, Laura Reis, The Fall of Advertising; self-published (ebook); 209; ASIN:B000FC11PG: Kindle: $20?
Website, Al & Laura Ries, father and daughter marketing strategists
Laura Ries
Jimi Wales’ Wiki
Al Reis, Laura Reis; The Fall of Advertising; ibidem.
Twitter.
Website, ibidem.
Luke Sullivan
Medium
Hey Whipple, Squeeze This; Publisher?; WHEN? ASIN:B01AVKWLCS: Kindle: $20?; Website Twitter.
tl;dr → <quote>a diatribe</quote>.
Matt Schlicht
Medium
Monte Wilson
LinkedIn.
ex-Adobe, Oracle, EMC.
Some Talk; At Some Venue, hosted On YouTube; 2016.
tl;dr → on the scientism of “sided” brain thinking.

Referenced

Previously

In His Blog

Also

Also His Blog

The spread of fake news by social bots | Shao, Ciampaglia, Varol, Flammini, Menczer

Chengcheng Shao, Giovanni Luca Ciampaglia, Onur Varol, Alessandro Flammini, Filippo Menczer (Indiana University, Bloomington); The spread of fake news by social bots; arXiv:1707.07492; 2017-07-24; 16 pages.

Abstract

The massive spread of fake news has been identified as a major global risk and has been alleged to influence elections and threaten democracies. Communication, cognitive, social, and computer scientists are engaged in efforts to study the complex causes for the viral diffusion of digital misinformation and to develop solutions, while search and social media platforms are beginning to deploy countermeasures. However, to date, these efforts have been mainly informed by anecdotal evidence rather than systematic data. Here we analyze 14 million messages spreading 400 thousand claims on Twitter during and following the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and election. We find evidence that social bots play a key role in the spread of fake news. Accounts that actively spread misinformation are significantly more likely to be bots. Automated accounts are particularly active in the early spreading phases of viral claims, and tend to target influential users. Humans are vulnerable to this manipulation, retweeting bots who post false news. Successful sources of false and biased claims are heavily supported by social bots. These results suggests that curbing social bots may be an effective strategy for mitigating the spread of online misinformation.

You Are Already Living Inside a Computer | The Atlantic

You Are Already Living Inside a Computer; Ian Bogost; In The Atlantic; 2017-09-14.
Teaser: Futurists predict a rapture of machines, but reality beat them to it by turning computing into a way of life.

Ian Bogost
  • The Ivan Allen College Distinguished Chair in media studies
  • A professor of interactive computing at the Georgia Institute of Technology
  • Play Anything: The Pleasure of Limits, the Uses of Boredom, and the Secret of Games
    Ian Bogost; Basic Books; 2016-09-13; 288 pages; ASIN:0465051723: Kindle: $19, paper: $7+SHT; site
  • Biography, by The Atlantic.

tl;dr → Computers are a fetish (just like any other). The “smart gadgets” are silly.
and → <quote>This new cyberpunk dystopia is more Stepford Wives, less William Gibson.</quote>
and → <quote>There’s some tragedy in this future. <snip/>  It’s [computers] they might remain just as ordinary and impotent as they are today, and yet overtake us anyway.</quote>

Mentions

  • planned obsolescence
  • Google
  • fidget spinners
  • Roomba
  • GasWatch
  • connected toasters
  • Smartphone-connected bike locks .
  • Samsung TV
  • Automated Content Recognition (ACR)
  • CIA
  • hacked TVs
  • hacked baby monitors
  • botnet
  • Hilton
  • Hampton Inn
  • Twitter
  • Denial of Service (DoS) attack
  • Ring, a “smart” doorbell
  • <quote>these are not the robots we were promised</quote>, attributed to Nicholas Carr, as a “wisecrack.”
  • Alan Turing, paper, 1950
  • Turing machine, 1936
  • Silicon Valley
  • Watson, an “Artificial Intelligence (AI)”, IBM
  • Something about how Twitter will trial Watson to detect abuse.
  • Earlier this year, Chris Moody, Twitter’s vice president of data strategy, because <quote>stopping abuse [as] the company’s first priority</quote>, attributed to Chris Moody, VP Stratego®, Twitter
  • Turing Test
  • reverse Turing Test (the CAPTCHA)
  • Uber
    honorific: <quote>The ride-hailing giant</quote>
  • Ring
  • the “disruption”
  • intelligent machines
  • robot apocalypse
  • pleasure of connectivity.
  • early dystopic scenarios
  • the actions computers take become self-referential
  • cyberpunk dystopia
  • Stepford Wives
  • William Gibson.
  • “hyperemployment”
  • Facebook
  • Google
  • Nick Bostrom
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • “superintelligence”
  • robot apocalypse.
  • David Chalmers
  • Ray Kurzweil
  • the “singularity”
  • Google, which operates
  • a division devoted to human immortality

Exemplars

  • GasWatch
  • Nest
  • Nokē
  • Roomba

Who

  • Nick Bostrom
  • Nicholas Carr
  • David Chalmers
  • William Gibson
  • Ray Kurzweil
  • Chris Moody, vice president of data strategy, Twitter
  • Alan Turing,
  • Joseph Weizenbaum

Quotes

The editor has helpfully placed certain sentences of the essay in the 50pt font to develop a sort of “spinal navigation” to the piece; and so you can’t miss the point, given all the words.

  • Computers already are predominant, human life already takes place mostly within them, and people are satisfied with the results.</quote>
  • People don’t seek out computers in order to get things done; they do the things that let them use computers.
  • People choose computers as intermediaries for the sensual delight of using computers.
  • The Turing test works best when everyone knows the interlocutor is a computer but delights in that fact anyway.
  • Doorbells and cars and taxis hardly vanish in the process. Instead, they just get moved inside of computers.
  • The present status of intelligent machines is more powerful than any future robot apocalypse.

Referenced

Essays

Performances

Products

Definitional

In Jimi Wales’ Wiki

Previously

In The Atlantic

Escape The Matrix | Wired

Escape The Matrix: The Internet is the Uncanniest Valley, Don’t Get Trapped There; Virginia Heffernan; In Wired; 2017-09.
Teaser: The Great Tech Panic: The Internet is The Uncanniest Valley
Virginia Heffernan performs the tweeting at @page88.

tl;dr → The techno panic is discursive: internet life is not A Life Well Lived; as such, and wrapped in 2125 words.
and → Computers are a fetish (just like any other).

Series

The Great Tech Publishing Panic of 2017.

Book

Virginia Heffernan; Magic and Loss: The Internet as Art; Simon & Schuster; 2017-06-027; 272 pages; ASIN:1501132679: kindle: $13, paper: $2+SHT.

Mentions

  • Amazon
    • Alexa, of Amazon
    • Echo, of Amazon
  • Facebook
  • Google
  • Instagram
  • Snapchat
  • Snopes
  • Spotify
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Who

  • Elaine Scarry, a philosoph.
    • Professor of English and American Literature and Language, the Walter M. Cabot Professor of Aesthetics and the General Theory of Value at Harvard University; via Jimi Wales’ Wiki
  • David Kessler
    • this guy
      David Kessler, expert, popularizer

      • grief counseling
      • adviser to the stars of Hollywood.
    • not this guy
      David Aaron Kessler. In Jimi Wales’ Wiki.

      • pediatrics
      • law
      • Commissioner of the Food &amp Drug Administration (FDA)
  • Masahiro Mori, professor, robtics.

Quotes

<quote>The same anxiety turned contempt attends much of today’s social media, notably Twitter and Snapchat, where the sheen of fatuousness, cryptic UX, and clubhouse jargon appears designed to humiliate and enfeeble.</quote>

<quote>David Kessler has written about mental illness, thoughts, ideologies, and persistent images of past or future can “capture” a person and stall their mental freedom.</quote>

<quote>Paradoxically, framing the internet as a text to be read, not a life to be led, tends to break, without effort, its spell. Conscious reading, after all, is a demanding ocular and mental activity that satisfies specific intellectual reward centers. And it’s also a workout; at the right time, brain sated, a reader tends to become starved for the sensory, bodily, three-dimensional experience of mortality, nature, textures, and sounds—and flees the thin gruel of text.</quote>
Challenge to the reader: edit this down to ten words, but retain the metaphor of “breaks the spell” and the (physical) “workout” concept.

Referenced

  • Elaine Scarry, Dreaming by the Book, 1999
    tl;dr → <quote>a manifesto on literature and the imagination.</quote>
  • Arrival of a Train at La Ciotat,, a movie, 1896.
  • The Polar Express, a movie, 2010+ (recent)

Argot

The Suitcase Words

Oh my, lots of them…
  • Acela
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • blockchain
  • Coke
    Diet Coke
  • James Comey
  • cyber, the cyber
    • cyberattack
    • cyberwarefare
  • Diet Coke
  • drones
  • digitization
  • GIF
  • GPS
  • McModern design
  • Mentos
  • OGG (sic)
    Ogg, definition
  • Barack Obama
  • PGP
  • Pokémon Go
  • Redit
    • reditor
    • subredditor
  • Russia
  • Super Mario Odyssey
  • web metropolis
  • UX
  • vapors
    suffering the vapors
  • YouTube

Two Worlds to Understand When Leading Generation Z | Tim Elmore

Tim Elmore; Two Worlds to Understand When Leading Generation Z; In His Blog; 2017-05-18

tl;dr → promotions: a book, a trade show.

Tim Elmore, Andrew McPeak; Marching Off the Map: Inspire Students to Navigate a Brand New World Kindle Edition; Poet Gardener Publishing; 2017-07-25; 328 pages; Amazon:B073VWV563: Kindle: $10, paper: no.

National Leadership Forum of Growing Leaders (LLC?), circa 2017-06.

Metaphors
  • VUCA → Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity
  • TGIF → Thank God It’s Friday! Twitter(SMS-style) Texting, Google, Instagram, Facebook

Mentions

  • A “smart” world.
  • It’s all different now.

Nostrum

<quote>

  • Inspire students to own their education and their future
  • Lead students from an attitude of apathy to one of passion through metacognition
  • Enable students to push back from the constant digital distractions and practice mindfulness
  • Raise kids who make healthy progress, both emotionally and intellectually, through their teenage years
  • Give students the tools to handle the complexities of an ever-changing world
  • Understand and practically apply the latest research on Generation Z

</quote>

Who

  • Vinika Rao, Executive Director, INSEAD?
  • Leonard Sweet (Ph.D.), futurist,
  • Jean Twenge (Ph.D.), U.C. San Diego

Argot

VUCA
A military doctrine, a metaphorical stance in strategic thought. See Jimi Wales’ Wiki. It has seen since been adopted by the HBR crowd to give a muscular sense to their questing activities.
  • Volatility
  • Uncertainty
  • Complexity
  • Ambiguity

For Elmore & McPeak’s work, the sense is toned down: VUCA for middle school -type social uncertainty, worry for the planet, ambiguity for the life course,etc.The TGIF World

Source: Leonard Sweet, tweet,

  • Texting
  • Google
  • Instagram
  • Facebook

Social media: My stars! Gee Whiz! Kids these days!

 

Generational Theory

  • Baby Boomers
  • Generation X
  • Generation Y
  • Generation Z

Sizzle

  • Virtual Reality
  • Augmented Reality

Soup

  • apathy,
  • change,
  • distraction,
  • healthy progress,
  • inspire,
  • latest research.
  • metacognition,
  • mindfullness,
  • passion,
  • resilient,
  • resourceful,
  • role models,
  • teenage.

Referenced

  • State of (un)readiness; staff; Universum, a lifestyle boutique agency; 2017-03-09 (maybe); 26 slides.
    tl;dr → a panel study, N=18,337, 19 countries (unclear how the interviews were collected, <em<e.g. by web, phone, etc.)
    Teaser: A glimpse of how Generations X, Y and Z believe the workplace should function and the technologies poised to transform it. (Hint: your employees expect things you’re likely unprepared to deliver)
  • Self Driving Car Race Crash Buenos Aires Formula E e-Prix; Some Cub Reporter; In Some Blog; 2017-02-18.
  • Changing Mental Health Todays Teens; In Their Blog; WHEN?
    promoting a podcast, an interview of Dr Jean Twenge.

De-Anonymizing Web Browsing Data with Social Networks | Su, Shukla, Goel, Narayanan

Jessica Su, Ansh Shukla, Sharad Goel, Arvind Narayanan; De-Anonymizing Web Browsing Data with Social Networks; draft; In Some Venue Surely (they will publish this somewhere, it is so very nicely formatted); 2017-05; 9 pages.

Abstract

Can online trackers and network adversaries de-anonymize web browsing data readily available to them? We show—theoretically, via simulation, and through experiments on real user data—that de-identified web browsing histories can be linked to social media profiles using only publicly available data. Our approach is based on a simple observation: each person has a distinctive social network, and thus the set of links appearing in one’s feed is unique. Assuming users visit links in their feed with higher probability than a random user, browsing histories contain tell-tale marks of identity. We formalize this intuition by specifying a model of web browsing behavior and then deriving the maximum likelihood estimate of a user’s social profile. We evaluate this strategy on simulated browsing histories, and show that given a history with 30 links originating from Twitter, we can deduce the corresponding Twitter profile more than 50% of the time. To gauge the real-world effectiveness of this approach, we recruited nearly 400 people to donate their web browsing histories, and we were able to correctly identify more than 70% of them. We further show that several online trackers are embedded on sufficiently many websites to carry out this attack with high accuracy. Our theoretical contribution applies to any type of transactional data and is robust to noisy observations, generalizing a wide range of previous de-anonymization attacks. Finally, since our attack attempts to find the correct Twitter profile out of over 300 million candidates, it is—to our knowledge—the largest-scale demonstrated de-anonymization to date.

Promotions

  • Ad Networks Can Personally Identify Web Users; Wendy Davis; In MediaPost; 2017-01-20.
    <quote> The authors tested their theory by recruiting 400 people who allowed their Web browsing histories to be tracked, and then comparing the sites they visited to sites mentioned in Twitter accounts they followed. The researchers say they were able to use that method to identify more than 70% of the volunteers.</quote>

Marketers Find You at 2:00 a.m. | WSJ

Marketers Find You at 2:00 a.m.; Charlie Wells; In The Wall Street Journal (WSJ); 2016-04-12.
Teaser: You know you want a breakfast burrito; companies use social media for ads in the wee hours

tl;dr → day parting works, sortof, maybe.

Mentions

  • Folgers Coffee
    • “Wakin’ Up Alarm Clock”
    • first release, 2013.
  • Influence Central,
    various factoids

Exemplars

Publishers
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
Consumers
  • Shaaz Nasir, age 27, Ottawa, Canada,
Advertisers
  • Asos, a clothing retailer, UK
  • Folgers Coffee
  • Gilette, Proctor & Gamble
  • Taco Bell

Quoted

  • Laura Beaudin, partner, customer strategy and marketing, Bain.
  • Scott Heimes, chief marketing officer, SendGrid.
  • Kevin Akeroyd, general manager and senior vice president, Oracle Marketing Cloud, Oracle Inc.
  • Klodiana Lanaj, assistant professor, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida.

Smartphone Sensing | Emiliano Miluzzo

Emiliano Miluzzo; Smartphone Sensing; PhD. Dissertation; Dartmouth College; 2011-05; 147 pages.

Abstract

The increasing popularity of smartphones with their embedded sensing capability and the availability of new application distribution channels, such as, the Apple AppStore and the Google Android Market, is giving researchers a unique opportunity to deploy mobile sensing applications at unprecedented scale and collect sensor data way beyond the boundaries of traditional small-scale research laboratory deployments. This thesis makes a number of contributions to smartphone sensing by introducing new sensing models, algorithms, applications, and systems.

First, we propose CenceMe, the first large-scale personal and social sensing application for smartphones, which allows users to share their real-time “sensing presence” (i.e., activity and context) with friends using the phone, web, and social network sites (i.e., Facebook, Myspace, Twitter). CenceMe exploits the smartphone’s onboard sensors (viz. accelerometer, microphone, GPS, Bluetooth, WiFi, camera) and lightweight, efficient machine learning algorithms on the phone and backend servers to automatically infer people’s activity and social context (e.g., having a conversation, in a meeting, at a party). The development, deployment, and evaluation of CenceMe opened up new problems also studied in this dissertation.

Sensing with smartphones presents several technical challenges that need to be surmounted; for example, the smartphone’s sensing context (i.e., the position of the phone relative to the event being sensed varies over time) and limited computational resources present important challenges that limit the inference accuracy using phones. To address these challenges, we propose an “evolve-pool-collaborate” model that allows smartphones to automatically adapt to new environments and conduct collaborative sensing among co-located phones resulting in increased robustness and classification accuracy of smartphone sensing in the wild. We call this system, Darwin Phones.

The final contribution of this dissertation explores a new mobile sensing application called VibN, which continuously runs on smartphones allowing users to view live feeds associated with hotspots in a city; that is, what is going on at different locations, the number of people and demographics, and the context of a particular place. VibN addresses a number of critical problems to the success of smartphone sensing, such as, running continuous sensing algorithms on resource limited smartphones, resolving privacy issues, and developing a sensor data validation methodology for applications released via the app stores (i.e., validating sensor data and identifying patterns without any notion of ground truth evidence). Such a methodology is crucial to the large-scale adoption of smartphone sensing in the future.

Smartphone sensing is an emerging field that requires significant advances in mobile computing, machine learning, and systems design. It is an exciting area of research that is cross-disciplinary and likely to touch on many application areas and scientific domains moving forward. The work presented in this dissertation identifies new problems and solutions that help advance our understanding in what is now a fast-moving area of research.

Snapchat Challenges Twitter And Facebook For Sports Talk | TechCrunch

Snapchat Challenges Twitter And Facebook For Sports Talk; In TechCrunch; 2016-01-29.
Teaser: Snapchat Challenges Twitter And Facebook For Sports Talk

tl;dr → Shapchat adds geofilters to control the conversation (overlay results, yet avoid copyright claims).

Mentions

  • Snapchat
    • Live Story (a feature, a product trade name)
  • National Football League (NFL)
  • <quote>Live Score geofilters saw 20 million views from 51 games.</quote>
  • Twitter
    • Moments (a feature, a product trade name)
    • Hashtags (a feature, a product trade name, you know the #-character)
  • Facebook
    • News Feed
    • Wall (Feed)
    • Instagram
  • Concept
    feels like this is barely rephrased from Snapchat press relations material
    <quote>On Facebook you might post once a day. On Snapchat or Twitter, a few times. But on Snapchat, you can go HAM. Share your pre-game, entrance to the stadium, outfit, seats, the action, the half-time, game-winning play, the celebration and everything after. All Snapchat has to do is convince you what you’re doing is special, and that’s what the Live Score filters do. The real-time sports social media race just heated up.</quote>

The Death of Blogging | Charles Miller

Charles Miller; The Death of Blogging; In His Blog entitled The Fishbowl; 2015-07-08.

tl;dr → blogs are for corporations & linkbaitists (self-styled “journos”) nowadays.

Outline

  • Digg stole its community
  • Twitter stole its small-talk
  • Tumblr stole its future
  • Centralization and lock-in won.

 Mentions

  • <quote>In the end, the distributed, do-it-yourself web was just too hard.</quote>
  • <quote>In every case, a closed, proprietary system took some ingredient of the self-publishing crack bloggers discovered in the early 2000s and distilled it into a product that was easier to use, and that people were willing to adopt even though it meant losing the freedom of openness, interoperability and owning your own words.</quote>