Mobile 2.0 (Web 3.0) | Benedict Evans

Benedict (Ben) Evans (A16z); Mobile 2.0 (not Web 3.0); In His Blog; 2017-01-31 (one year ago).

tl;dr → A paean. “The mobile” is the Bee’s Knees!
and → The signal is given: a new S-Curve is commencing.
and → The unbunding / rebundling / unbundling / rebundling cycle, a metaphor of growth-cum-renewal.

Mentions

Scope

  • Amazon
    • They sell stuff, which is purchased by “the mobile” (demographic)
    • Alexa
    • Echo
  • Apple
    • AirPods
    • They make The Phones, which are “the mobile” (a totem of the demographic)
  • Facebook
    • is “the browser”
    • Instant Articles
  • Google
    • Accelerated Mobile Pages (AMP)
    • YouTube, is “the video”
  • Snapchat
    • <rly?>
    • Spectacles

Historiography

Web 1.0
1994, Netscape launched
Web 2.0
2004, Tim O’Reilly, broadband, Yahoo, Flickr, “the social”
Mobile 1.0
2007, the iPhone launch.
Web 3.0 Mobile 2.0
“The Web” is dead; the Wintel device & it’s browser is not relevant any more.
Ah Bullion Yoosers, On. Smart. Phones.
WiFi, The ‘Gs, 3 & 4, LTE, High-DPI screens, 100x GPUs, Sensors (cameras). Cameras

Unaccounted

Missing in the Analysis
  • How is it that The Telecoms will allow this?
    Whereas

    • The Phone is sold through their financing apparatus.
    • The Phone operates on spectrum owned by them.
    • The Phone engenders a billable event every month.
  • Are The Telecoms so inept that they cannot (re-)capture the consumer?
    • Constrained by The Regulation?
    • Mired in The Buraucracy?
    • The corporate DNA (as a metaphor for corporate culture) of Old Monopoly Ma Bell disallows new modes of thinking?
    • They are disinterested?
  • Maybe with 5G!

Free Association

  • Computers with eyes
  • Combining the camera with touch
  • Video (the sight, sound & motion)
  • <alert><cliche>Consuming content; Deeper engagement.<cliche></alert>
  • <quote>Video is the new HTML, or the new Flash.<quote>
  • Facebook, is “the browser.”
  • YouTube, is “the video.”
  • sides of the brain.
  • “unbundle” the phone.
  • a cluster of little devices that orbit the (smart) phone.
  • Alexa == Spectacles
    <quote>create a new, independent end-point for the cloud that they can own themselves.</quote>
  • Augmented Reality (AR)
  • multi-touch
  • machine learning
  • computer vision
  • voice recognition
  • WOW!

Parable

Business Decision-Making from Folkloric Reasoning on the The Mythological Paradigms

<quote>Alternatively, you can look at this as part of the way that tech swings from bundling to unbundling:

  • AOL bundled content
  • [T]he [W]eb unbundled AOL
  • Google bundled the web,
  • [A]pps unbundled properties from [T]he [B]rowser,
    but also bundled each site into a single icon,
  • and now these platforms form new bundles.

The pendulum will swing back the other way again, at some point. And in parallel, one could argue that Snapchat itself unbundled not ‘photos’ but fun and self-expression from Facebook.</quote>

Estimation

  • Something about app stores and social distribution.
    Except for China, which is different.
  • App distribution requires owning an app store
  • Content distribution is by the linkbait techniques

 

The Evolving Data Landscape: Veracity, Convergence And Anonymity | Ad Exchanger

Ramsey McGrory (Mediaocean); The Evolving Data Landscape: Veracity, Convergence And Anonymity; In AdExchanger; 2017-09-21.
Ramsey McGrory, chief revenue officer at Mediaocean

tl;dr → something about accuracy of imputations in consumer profiles, accuracy of “data.”

Original Sources

Ramsey McGrory (AddThis); The Data Providers One Quadrant Chart To Rule Them All; 2013-02.
tl;dr → it’s a metaphor with four (4) quadrants induced by a 2-axis “system”; later a 3rd access, a Z-axis

  1. online ↔ offline
  2. anonymous → personal
  3. singleton → conglomerate

Mentions

  • <quote>data being neither intrinsically “good” nor “bad,” but rather having “qualities.”<quote>, attributed to Ted McConnell.
  • behaviors, drive actions.
  • Viewability
  • Verification
  • Something allegorical about Viewability and Trust & Safety vending as a separable service of attestation, 2012 → 2017.
  • <quote>Viewability speaks to a broader metadata theme of trust, as well as an underlying theme of data quality and users’ engagement with content delivered against this data.</quote>
  • Hey! That’s not a business, that’s a Business Unit;
    Hey! That’s not a BU, that’s a Product.
    Hey! That’s not a Product, that’s a Feature.
    <quote>Then, these vertical standalone organizations and solutions were horizontally integrated into the operating agencies as capabilities.</quote>

Claimed

  • SafeGraph <quote>works with universities and health organizations to understand movement data and the spread of infectious diseases.</quote>
  • [all] device IDs are persistent
  • <quote>there are growing trends toward people taking control of their anonymization through the use of virtual private networks and Tor</quote>
    • As stated:
      • casual consumer use of VPNs is prevalent [enough to measure]
      • casual consumer use of Tor is prevalent [enough to measure]
    • Contrast with:
      <surely>IPv6 use is prevalent,
      IPv6 use is prevalent enough to warrant dual-stack interfaces on the great centralized ad exchanges.</surely>
  • <quote>mobile, where cookies can’t be used</quote>
  • <quote>that major brands may view agencies as differentiated commodity services, put their media in review with greater frequency and bid them down.</quote>
  • The adtech bubble is ongoing; adtech will be forward-funded on an ongoing basis:<quote><snip/> will continue to be funded with massive capital because the opportunities for innovation and disruption are huge.</quote>

Framework

Three Four V’s of Data
  1. volume
  2. velocity
  3. variety
  4. veracity

Exemplars

Big (conglomerates)
  • Adobe
  • Amazon
  • Google
  • IBM
  • Oracle
  • Salesforce
  • SAP
Cross-Device Fingerprinting
Viewability
  • AdSafe
  • comScore
  • DoubleVerify
  • Moat
Safety
  • Amino
  • White Ops
Data Brokers
  • Experian
  • Acxiom
  • TransUnion
  • Equifax
Trading Desks
  • Xaxis of WPP
  • Nerve Center of VivaKi of Publicis
Data Breached
  • Yahoo
  • Equifax
Salubrious

Hearts & Science
<honorific>won major accounts on a transparent, data-centric and deeply integrated vision.</honorific>

Who

  • Ted McConnell, practitioner.
    <quote>Ted McConnell, an independent consultant in the digital marketing space.</quote>

Referenced

Previously

In Ad Exchanger

Argot

The Suitecase Words
  • ”data truth”
  • “moat for data”
  • “truth of the inference”
  • intenders, as “auto intenders”
  • attitudes
  • demographics
  • measurement
  • cross-device,
    cross-device mapping.
  • deterministic
  • Television
    • connected television
    • addressable television
    • advanced television
    • data-enabled television
    • targeted television
    • integrated television and video,
      integrated television and video initiatives
  • strategic elements
    strategic elements of advertising campaigns.
  • holistic planning
  • anonymous data
  • digital data
  • ad block
  • cookie block
  • mobile,
    growth of mobile.
  • device IDs
  • persistent
  • anonymity,
    desire for anonymity.
  • breaches,
    data breaches,
    massive data breaches

    • Yahoo
    • Equifax
  • sensitive information
    • Social Security numbers
    • birthdates
    • credit card numbers
  • collaboration
  • competition
  • companies,
    services companies,
    technology and services companies
  • space,
    media space.
  • to verb… with large agencies
    • partner
    • coexist
    • compete
  • Z-axis
  • execute,
    acquisitively execute,
    aggressively and acquisitively execute,
    continue to aggressively and acquisitively execute,
    continue to aggressively and acquisitively execute on their strategies,
    continue to aggressively and acquisitively execute on their strategies to deliver on

    • infrastructure
    • data
    • services
  • agencies,
    holding company agencies.
  • solutions,
    data-driven solutions,
    converged, data-driven solutions.
  • vision,
    • transparent vision
    • data-centric vision
    • integrated vision,
      deeply integrated vision.
  • The side,
    • The downside
    • The upside
  • brands,
    major brands.
  • services,
    commodity services,
    differentiated commodity services,
    agencies as differentiated commodity services.
  • themes
    • convergence
    • data activation
    • people
  • change,
    great change,
    in a time of such great change,
    wait for it … wait for it … the only constant is change …thank you, thank you very much, I’ll be here all week.
  • The Bottom Line
  • In a world of…
  • adjectivedata,
    • first-party data
    • third-party data
    • personal data
    • census data
    • anonymous data
    • panel data,
      <mmmmm>…panel data..…</mmmmm>
    • pixel data
  • understanding,
    deeper understanding,
    deeper understanding of consumers’ …
    deeper understanding of consumers’ awareness and interests,
    deeper understanding of consumers’ awareness and interests while enjoying <snip/> profitability,
    deeper understanding of consumers’ awareness and interests while enjoying short- and long-term profitability,
    deeper understanding of consumers’ awareness and interests while enjoying short- and long-term profitability of their brands.
  • vision,
    this vision,
    delivering on this vision.
  • infrastructure,
    data infrastructure,
    extensive data infrastructure.
  • understanding,
    deep understanding,
    deep understanding of

    • advertising
    • publishing,
      media publishing
    • ecommerce
  • ecosystems,
    technology ecosystems,

    • advertising technology ecosystems
    • marketing technology ecosystems
    • content technology ecosystems
  • ecosystems,
    the ecosystems,
    all the ecosystems,
    And across all the ecosystems
  • nounof data
    • consolidation of data
    • standardization of data
    • interpretation of data
    • activation
  • winners
    winners and losers
    winners and losers will be decided.
  • transformation,
    massive transformation,
    enable massive transformation,
    enable massive transformation at <snip/> lower costs.
    enable massive transformation at materially lower costs.

Curiosity gap about AdTech, you won’t believe what happens next!

; Things you should know about AdTech, today; In His Blog, centrally hosted on LinkedIn; 2017-08-30; regwalled.

Occasion

Boosterism in front of the trade shows
  • Exchange Wire #ATSL17
  • Dmexco
  • Programmatic IO

Separately noted.

How M&A Impacts The Remaining DSPs | Ad Exchanger

How M&A Impacts The Remaining DSPs; ; In Ad Exchanger; 2017-08-21.

tl;dr → header bidding has killedwill kill the DSP, as a business proposition.

Mentions

  • Demand-Side Platform (DSP)
    [pure-play] Demand-Side Platform (DSP)
  • No new DSPs are prognosticated
    • Too expensive to build new.
    • Insufficient return once built.
    • Costs are mounting
  • [DSP] business model is flawed
    • Derisk the agency
    • Own the media until delivered.
    • Financial arbitrage
  • Claim: [many] agencies have gone from working with four to six buying platforms to closer to three now, attributed to Martin Kihn, Gartner.
  • the walled garden platforms
    contra
    the pure-play platforms

Rankings

  1. Google’s DoubleClick Bid Manager (DBM)
  2. Amazon
  3. “seven or eight” closely packed DSPs
    1. The Trade Desk
    2. MediaMath
    3. the rest… being: “five or six”

Source: opinement, Ad Perceptions in AdExchanger

Quoted

  • Michael Baker, CEO, DataXu
  • Julian Baring, general manager for North America, Adform.
  • Martin Kihn, research VP, Gartner
  • Kevin Mannion, CSO, Advertiser Perceptions
  • Rob Perdue, COO, The Trade Desk

Exemplars

Supply-Side Platforms (SSP)

  • Tremor Video
    sold: Taptica, the DSP operations
  • Rubicon Project
    abandoned DSP operations

Pure-Play DSPs

Sold to telecom
  • Turn,
    sold to SingTel
  • Oath (née AOL and Yahoo)
    sold to Verizon
Sold to Elsewhere
  • Rocket Fuel, sold to Sizmek owned by “private equity,”
  • TubeMogul, sold to Adobe

Previously

In Ad Exchanger

In Silicon Valley Now, It’s Almost Always Winner Takes All | New Yorker

In Silicon Valley Now, It’s Almost Always Winner Takes All; ; In The New Yorker; 2015-12-30.

tl;dr → Gee Wiz!  A paean to the Network Effect (Bob Metcalf’s Law)

Mentions

  • Sidecar has been shut down.
  • <quote>Google and Uber aren’t very different. Broadband was Google’s sun god; the smartphone is Uber’s. </quote>, per Om Malik, before.
    Ahem … and that’s totally true … as far as it goes.
  • winner take all market
  • Bob Metcalf’s Law

Exemplars

  • Amazon
  • Android
  • Android Pay
  • Apple
  • Apple Pay
  • Coke
  • Direct Hit
  • Dogpile
  • Ethernet
  • Excite
  • Facebook
  • Fast company
  • Flywheel
  • Google+
  • Honda
  • Infoseek
  • iOS
  • Leap Transit
  • Lycos
  • Lyft
  • Metcalfe’s Law
  • Microsoft
  • Northern Light
  • PayPal
  • Powerset
  • RidePal
  • Samsung Pay
  • Sidecar
  • Simpli
  • Skype
  • Square
  • Toyota
  • Uber
  • Walmart Pay
  • Yahoo

Personalities

  • Richard Branson
  • Sergey Brin
  • Jack Dorsey
  • Larry Page
  • Sunil Paul
  • Kevin Systrom

Referenced

The Internet of Things That Talk About You Behind Your Back | Motherboard

The Internet of Things That Talk About You Behind Your Back; Bruce Schneier; In Motherboard; 2016-01-08.

Bruce Schneier is

tl;dr → it’s really bad out there; <quote>surveillance is the business model of the internet</quote>.

Mentions

  • surveillance economy

<quote>Technically, of course, we did consent. The license agreement we didn’t read but legally agreed to when we unthinkingly clicked “I agree” on a screen, or opened a package we purchased, gives all of those companies the legal right to conduct all of this surveillance. And the way US privacy law is currently written, they own all of that data and don’t need to allow us to see it.</quote>

Exemplars

In the order presented.

Boutiques

  • SilverPush
  • 4Info
  • Drawbridge
  • Flurry
  • Cross Screen Consultants

Also: Circulate.

Major

  • Google
  • Facebook
  • Yahoo

Referenced

  • Why Cross-Device Tracking is teh Ltest Obsessiono f Marketers; Reporter; In Campaign Live; 2015-08-27.
    Mentions

    • Paul Cushman, managing director, Cross Screen Consultants; ex-Yahoo
    • Michael Moreau, Chief Solutions Officer, General Manager [of] Interchange, Krux
    • Chuck Moxley, CMO, 4Info
    • Ian Dailey, senior product marketing manager, RocketFuel
    • Persio, loyalty programs (coupons).
      <quote>[the consumer] ownloads a coupon on desktop which she can send to her phone. This not only connects desktop browsing behavior with a phone number, but reports when the coupon is activated and a sale occurs.</quote>
    • Nielsen Cataline Solutions
    • Probabilistic tracking
      • 4Info, with Nielsen Catalina Solutions
      • Adelphic
      • Atlas, Facebook; 2011
      • Google
      • Krux
      • New York Times (NYT); via Krux
      • RocketFuel
      • Spotify
      • Tapad
      • Yahoo
    • Walled Gardens
      • eBay
      • Facebook
      • Yahoo
    • Max Kalehoff, CMO, SocialCode,
    • <quote>There’s a saying in ad tech: You’ve really made it when you get the FTC interested. If that’s the case, cross-device has hit the big time. In November, the agency plans to host a workshop about cross-device tracking, looking at, among other things, the privacy and security risks associated with the practice.</quote>
    • Jonathan Mayer, graduate student, lawyer, Stanford University
      is quoted.
  • Comments, Center for Democracy & Technology (CDT); on the Federal Trade Commission’s Workshop on Cross-Device Tracking of 2015-10-16; 11 pages.
  • “Beware the electronic gossips eavesdropping in our homes”; Anjana Ahuja; In The Financial Times (FT); 2015-12-23; paywalled.

The Changing Digital Landscape: Where Things are Heading | Pew Research Center

The Changing Digital Landscape: Where Things are Heading; (Pew Research Center); Presented at Tencent Media Summit, Beijing, China; 2015-11-12; 36 slides.

Contents

  • Three (3) digital revolutions have changed the news
  • State of the digital news media 2015
  • Six (6) impacts on news and the media
  • Five (5) trends for the future

Separately noted.

 

Yahoo’s CEO is running out of time to turn things around | San Jose Mercury News

Yahoo’s CEO is running out of time to turn things around; Michael Liedtke; In San Jose Mercury News; 2015-11-25.

tl;dr → there are problems; some investors are unhappy.

Mentions

  • Eric Jackson, managing director, Ader Investment Management, New York; a hedge fund
    Claimed to own YHOO.
  • Robert Peck, staff, SunTrust.
  • Jeffrey Smith, staff, Starboard Value.
  • Kathy Savitt, ex-Yahoo; marketing & media.
  • Jacqueline Reses, ex-Yahoo; M&A.
  • Katie Couric
  • Tumblr
  • Alibaba

Quoted

For color, background & verisimilitude

  • Scott Kessler, staff, S&P Capital IQ.

Google, Facebook, Yahoo And Verizon (And Comcast, AT&T And Twitter) Have Chosen Their New Battleground | TechCrunch

Google, Facebook, Yahoo And Verizon (And Comcast, AT&T And Twitter) Have Chosen Their New Battleground; ; In TechCrunch; 2015-10-30.
Jeff Segal is the director of strategy consulting at Magid Associates.

tl;dr →”battleground” is a metaphor for competition; a Grand Strategy is announced; Display Advertising becomes Over-The-Top (OTT) against (linear) Big Television.

Mentions

  • Over The Top (OTT)
  • Distributors
    • AOL
    • AT&T
    • Comcast
    • Facebook
    • Google
    • Twitter
    • Verizon
    • Yahoo
  • Producers
    • Portals
      • Facebook
      • YouTube
    • Sports
      • CNN
      • ESPN
      • Fox Sports
  • Claims
    • Display Advertising
      • 35 display ad sellers account for roughly 85 percent of total digital advertising revenues.
    • Video Advertising
      • very few pure-play video publishers.
      • the majority of time spent is the mid-to-long tail.
      • the mid-to-long tail has almost no video.
      • (online) video generates a 6-8X premium over display advertising.
  • YouTube
    • a video syndication product extension
    • is “AdSense for Video”
    • DoubleClick for Publishers (DFP)
    • something about <quote>programmatically creating new video inventory for publishers that don’t necessarily create any video content</quote>
    • YouTube is User-Generated Content (UGC)
      i.e. trash supply, not brand-safe.
  • Business Structure
    three-legged stool, a metaphor

    • a content network
    • ad platform
    • first-party data (for targeting).
  • Facebook
    • Distribution
      • LiveRail, a video SSP
      • The New York Times (via Facebook Instant Articles)
    • Ad System: sure.
    • Party Date: yes
  • Verizon
    • AOL On Network
      • 4,000 sites
    • Adap.TV
    • Party Data: Something about <quote>extensive first-party data</quote>.
  • Yahoo
    • BrightRoll, an ad platform
    • Party Data: yes.
    • missing: a publisher network
  • Unclear
    • AT&T
    • Comcast
    • Twitter
      • Twitter Amplify (is what, exactly?)

Inside Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel’s Entertainment Empire | Fast Company

In Fast Company, (print) November Issue; (online) 2015-10-19.

Derivatives

Derived from the main article, broken out into smaller variants, for the page views.